Thursday June 12th
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THE SPX made a new high again, so we have a day 12 peak so far, and then the markets dipped lower at the end of the day. It was blamed on some tension caused by the failure of talks between the U.S. (Trump) and Iraq, but it started to bounce back into the close.
It wasn’t a big dip and it started to bounce back in the final hour, so it only closed down -0.27%. This may be nothing more than a knee jerk reaction, but if the selling continued, it could also become a half cycle low around day 15.
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YESTERDAY I POINTED OUT THIS RESISTANCE AND THOUGHT THAT OIL WOULD PULL BACK. I WROTE:
WTIC – Oil appears to have reversed because it reached that resistance of the breakdown of prior lows. It is also at the downtrend line. This was pointed out as a resistance area and that is what we are seeing now.
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WTIC – Oil surged higher and ran up 5% right to the next resistance area, the 200sma. A week or 2 ago I pointed out that Oil appears to have an ICL and that Oil stocks were looking bullish, so now we are seeing a strong 2nd daily cycle with oil. Any discussion of war or tensions with Iraq could affect Oil bullishly, since Iraq is a major producer of oil.
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THE XOP is also at the 200sma, but volume is increasing and that could indicate that a breakout higher will happen sooner than later.
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NOG, APA, VET, VLO, XOM, HAL, etc. look very similar to Oil, as they move out of their lows. Some like HAL are lagging, others like VLO are higher, but many look similar to this. That was also a nice back test of the 50sma with the dcl.
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HAL is lagging compared to NOG, VLO, VET, etc, but it looks ready to run to the 200sma too. Even that run from $22 to $26 would be a nice trade, but it could also break out and run if Oil rallies onward.
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THE USD is a bullish descending wedge, but it dropped yesterday and it also dropped intraday with that IRAQ headline. So far, this remains a bullish wedge, but if it starts to take out the lows? Then it is failing and Gold may push higher, because…
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GOLD remains a bullish set up and Gold and Silver have been acting like an ICL is in place. We have a day 14 ‘peak’ at $3403, and Gold is on day 18. If that $3403 is taken out, our peak would very likely be R.T. at day 19 or 20.
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SILVER peaked on day 16 so far and then dipped on Tuesday and Wednesday. It may just climb the 8 ema (or 10sma) and continue higher. All dips have been very small in this run.
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GDX tends to follow Gold, so we have a day 15 peak and a small choppy dip. If Gold pushes higher before the next dcl, then I think that Miners will too. I do like the set ups with many miners like KGC, IAG, AU, etc, but they could still chop sideways or push higher too.
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I do like the set ups with many miners like KGC, IAG, AU, etc, but they could still chop sideways or push higher too.
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The set ups remain bullish, even though some choppiness has entered into some areas. Enjoy your Thursday trading
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN This is only day 7 and Bitcoin is pulling back this week. On the last run higher in April and May it pulled back to the green line (20 ema). We are almost at the 20 ema now, so hopefully that will act as support, and we can continue higher from here.
