Wednesday May 21 – Something New?
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SPX – After 6 straight days higher, we got a small ‘pause’ yesterday. These daily cycles can be 35 days long or they can run 40 plus, so it’s not possible to know for sure if the run is ‘peaking in this resistance zone(?) or will it continue and then dip, but when we get that dip, BUY THAT DIP. 🙂
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SPX –
1. We run to the former highs and dip into a dcl
2. We just start to pause and dip here into a dcl.
3. A pullback to the 50sma & 200sma is normal and bullish.
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WTIC – Oil is on day 28 of a possible 40-50 day daily cycle. It is noteworthy that day 6 is the peak so far, so this may still be a final daily cycle that breaks down, or if it finally pushes higher above day 6, we would likely have an ICL. Even with an ICL, Oil may bounce around and break down even further later. Oil has simply been very choppy and not a good trade long or short.
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THE USD – Day 21 and the USD is probably dipping into a dcl. It was rejected right at the 50sma and Gold started to bounce when the USD started to drop. A dcl may be a back-test of the trend line and a bounce from there may hinder Golds progress. The USD is NOT oversold yet.
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GOLD finally popped higher and got above that 20 ema. If I looked at this chart without cycles, I would be a buyer because it reversed bullishly at the 50sma and is in an uptrend. This is a bit confusing because that run was so strong out of the last dcl, but also it was L.T. It peaked on day 10, right? So was that an A-B-C down into an ICL? IT IS NOT LIKELY, but I did say that you could buy this dcl 3 days ago and see what you get. Some Miners are still popping and may do their own thing.
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1. So Gold peaked on day 10, right?
2. I would wonder if that was that an A-B-C down into an ICL, but IT IS NOT LIKELY. ,
3. Does that mean that we now get a MUCH lower drop into an ICL if this rolls over after day 10 or so? Not necessarily, since this is a bull market, so let me remind you of something.
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GOLD ICLs – It is always good to go back and look at recent ICLs in the Bull run. THIS IS A BULL MARKET, SO WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT GOLD USED TO CRASH, BUT NOW IT CAN MEANDER INTO AN ICL.
1. Notice that some just chopped sideways in that final daily cycle, staying somewhat close to the highs of that daily cycle
2. While others ran up and then just dropped quickly into a final low AT THE YELLOW LINE.
3. I drew in a pop and drop to that yellow line here, and that will really look normal if it plays out that way.
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SILVER is trying to break the downtrend. Was that an ICL? If so, it was very abnormal, but I have pointed out that the April 7th crash in the general markets gave the general markets an ICL and Silver did follow.
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GDX has a very long first daily cycle ( 39 days long!) and then a 2nd & 3rd that showed good strength. April 7th does NOT look like an ICL here, plus the 2nd daily cycle was R.T., so I am expecting something similar to what I expect from Gold. The 3rd daily cycle here peaked on day 9, so it was L.T. and I wouldnt expect a new high with this set up.
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SOMETHING NEW?
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THIS SEEMS QUITE IMPORTANT: Does anyone remember years ago when Platinum was always worth more than GOLD? It used to lead Gold, but lately it was left behind as Gold raced off to new all-time highs. Well, Platinum suddenly popped yesterday, so we really should do a quick review of what I found. Some of these stocks are still in bases or near their lows, but that may begin to change.
Yesterday Platinum charts of $PLAT, PLG, SBSW, SPPP, PPLT popped quite a bit, some gaining 14%.
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I’m seeing that $PLAT actually broke out and back tested in 2021, but it never really gained traction with Gold. Yesterday it started to break out from this 4 year wedge/triangle. This may not look like much, but it did with the ‘stocks’.
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PLG has remained at the lows, but yesterday it popped almost 15%. Are these stocks going to play catch up? If so, they are still at the lows. This could be a ‘buy & hold with a stop’ to see what happens over time.
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SBSW popped almost 15% too, but it has actually been moving higher ahead of the pack. Looks like we missed the boat on this one??? No…
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SBSWWEEKLY – You can buy a dip or find a way into SBSW over time, but the upside potential is still a big gainer if these run to former highs. SBSW looks to be leaving the base.
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SPPP – Sprott trust had a high volume break out from the base too (only 4%, but over time it could do well).
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PPLT– A Platinum ETF broke out yesterday too, so it does seem that platinum is preparing to join Gold in a run
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We have been seeing some good moves in Stocks and the general markets, but eventually a dip will present itself as a dcl. That will be a great buying opportunity, since the markets should then run to new all-time highs and buyers will be buying again. The Precious Metals markets should bounce and then chop around. I just can’t expect a run to new highs with the current set up, but the next dip may be the ICL and then we could see fireworks again. I don’t usually recommend taking a position at the start of a 4th daily cycle, but in this case I think that you could take a small position with a stop, because a bull market could see a few surprises to the upside. And now Platinum popped so it is possible that Silver and Platinum will join Gold in the race to their prior highs. The future still looks promising for traders and buy & Hold investors. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN made a new daily cycle high yesterday and the crypto stocks are slowly trying to make progress too. They are choppy, so they may be best as a buy and hold from the lows.
