May 10th Weekend Report – We Love The Bulls!
This weekend’s report will be very much like last weekend’s report. Plenty of charts, but brief in the commentary. I shouldn’t need to say too much with daily charts, because I cover those in the weekday reports and nothing has really changed. The markets became bullish and formed an ICL, Gold is due for a pullback of some sort. Bitcoin has continued higher, so let’s get to the charts…
.
THE SPX WEEKLY – Often price recovers the 10 week ma (blue line) and rides upon it. We regained that area and this should only be week 4 of a new intermediate cycle.
.
SPX– Eventually we will dip into a dcl around day 35 or so, and that will be another buy entry point. The dip may give us an inverse H&S.
.
NASDAQ – With that Covid crash and recovery that I have been pointing out as ‘similar’, I just wanted to show you where we would be right now.
1. Under the red 30 week ma
2. RSI at 50%, MACD hasn’t even crossed yet
3. Oversold stochastics at the halfway point
4. From here the covid run lasted almost 2 years. Plenty of time to make money!
.
WTIC #1 -Due to cycle timing and the weak choppiness, I had called for a breakdown in Oil and I said that it could very well drop all the way to the $40 area over time in 2025. We should see a bounce here with a possible ICL, so…
.
WTIC #2 – I feel that we have an ICL and price can chop around this triangle area for the next 2 daily cycles and then peak on the 3rd daily cycle. It should then roll over and head down to the $40ish area. If you look at what the ticker ‘Drip’ did on that last ICL drop, then you can see that ‘Drip’ might be a good trade in a couple of months again.
.
THE USD broke down and then bottomed right on time. Is it a daily cycle or an ICL? I think it is an ICL and it should be able to push back into the yellow consolidation zone. This is still very oversold. So if the ‘inverse’ relationship between the USD & GOLD has returned, we would expect Gold to dip, and that is what I have been calling for lately.
.
GOLD WEEKLY – Gold ran up and pulled back again this week, so now we have 2 weekly reversal candles. I had mentioned that on the next bounce, it might be a double top and that would be a good time for those that want to sell to lighten up on Miners and prepare for a sell down. I will say this, some Miners did very well on earnings reports this week, so the next run could be very good!
.
GOLD WEEKLY #1 – With 2 weekly reversal candles and cycle timing, I have to expect a gradual drop into an ICL. I have 2 main ideas. The first is below, drop into an ICL and then off to the races again as soon as June. See the chart. THIS would lead to a parabolic blow off top.
.
GOLD WEEKLY #2 – A consolidation that brings us down into an ICL, but the next daily cycle runs up and begins to chop sideways. We have seen consolidations in the past, so this is possible. One Entire intermediate cycle can last 5-6 Months (Oct-Nov). This would extend Golds run and might even keep it from being a parabolic blow off top yet.
.
SILVER WEEKLY– Isn’t Silver just a messy looking chart with all of that chop and lack of follow through? I just have to expect more of the same, with a pullback ahead soon, rather than a run higher without Gold. I will say this: Some Silver miners have REALLY perked up nicely with earnings releases over the past 2 weeks. They started to fly. It’s worth keeping an eye on daily.
.
GDX WEEKLY– GDX has finally started to follow Golds run with a steeper climb. The USD is due to run now though, and Gold is coming due to pull back with 2 weekly reversal candles showing up, so I would expect the Miners to pull back too. This could offer an excellent opportunity to buy lower when the time comes. Let’s look at visuals…
.
GDX IDEA #1 – Obviously if Gold does the consolidation phase, GDX would likely run up as Gold does, and then dip lower when Gold does, so we could see a choppy phase as shown here into maybe Oct-Nov.
.
GDX IDEA #2 – A sharp drop into an ICL in late May or June (a-b-c), could give us the next ICL. Instead of a consolidation, Gold & the Miners could just crash & run. They would continue that steep ramp up and go parabolic in the next Intermediate Cycle. I think that Silver and Silver miners would join in this time, and some Silver Miners have popped with earnings over the past 2 weeks. See CDE, MAG, PAAS, SSRM, ASM, etc.
.
With all of the above analysis, I just want to say that Silver stocks lagged, but a few they really made up for lost ground with earnings over the past 2 weeks. It is a nice surprise, but it really has me wondering if this is going to continue and Silver also will do its own thing?
.
Take a look at CDE for example: AMAZING reaction to earnings 2 days ago. It was up roughly 22% Thursday and 12.5% Friday, giving us almost 50 % for the week! In the past I would never hold on through earnings, but this time around we’ve had more surges higher than drops. Also:
1. The weekly MACD is just curling up,
2. The weekly stochastics is oversold, and
3. The Weekly RSI broke a downtrend.
4. Volume is high and this looks ready to fly actually.
I can’t rule out the idea that some of these Miner releasing bullish reports could do their own thing, holding up better than others if we get that pullback in Gold. Buyers may continue to add on dips. If these DO pull back though, just like HMY, IAG, KGC, etc eventually did, what a nice buying opportunity we have ahead to make good gains on the next run.
.
I hope everyone has a great weekend. Thank you for being here with me at Chartfreak!
.
~ALEX
.
I want to start by reminding you again of the 2 different cycle counts that are both bullish in their own way: This is what I said in Fridays report.
.
We had a slam down low in Bitcoin on day 27, very similar to the recent slam down low that became an ICL in the General Markets, right? So I called that the ICL when it made progress. WITH THAT COUNT, I expected a day 30ish dip, and we got that at day 29. So this would only be day 31 of a possible 60 day cycle! Lot’s of ‘time’ left. That said, what if I did not change the count?…
.
BITCOIN -What if I did not change the count? Day 27 was the low, and then we’d count forward as shown here. That day 29 dip becomes a day 56 dip. We would only be on day 2 with this count? So I just wanted to give both counts to show that either way, we are on the early end of cycle counts and we just tagged $104,000 already. We could be ready to make my original run to $120,000+. We’ll see.
.
BITCOIN WEEKLY – So here we are with 5 green weeks in a row and bitcoin has run back up toward the all time highs very quickly. I must admit: I own BTDR and a few others that have done well, but with Bitcoin back at all-time highs, Crypto stocks are lagging , some down near the lows. What do I make of that?
.
