April 24th – Interesting Moves
YESTERDAYS REPORT:
Here I am pointing out the resistance that has been holding price down, The SPX has been unable to get above the 20ema so far. Price may run back up there today.
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THE SPX (& The Nasdaq) gapped up and over the 20 ema, so that is encouraging, but it then sold off into the close and we may end up seeing a gap fill today. Stops have been raised to the higher low and we may even be able to draw a trendline, as seen here.
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I wanted to point out that some of the former leaders in the last Bull run are actually shaping up bullishly, so let me just show you how they have progressed. These are doing better than AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, AAPL, etc so far.
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CRWD moved above the 50sma yesterday and you can see that this looks like a normal ‘W’ bottom consolidation.
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CVNA is also above the 20 ema and moved from $150 to $220 in days. If the lows are in place for the general markets, these are showing strength early in the move.
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RR – What I pointed out with Richtech Robotics is that when the markets sold off to new lows again in April (into day 17), Some of these stocks held up and resisted that selling. I am keeping those in mind, due to their strength during a market crash.
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Again, that crash to day 17 was in April, but…
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Several Quantum Stocks, like IONQ, also stopped selling off in early March.
That day 17 crash was in April and IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT, and so on held up.
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QBTS rallied in early March and then also did not put in a new low with the early April day 17 crash.
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These stocks and others are just areas that I am watching now, just in case we see the markets start to push higher. These could be leaders, since they didn’t follow the crash in early April.
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USD – Recently I mentioned that we may be seeing the opposite correlation between the USD and GOLD coming back. On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw the USD bounce and Gold pulled back. I am expecting a dcl or even an ICL in the USD, and that may be what puts the recent ‘peak’ in Gold in place.
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WTIC – Oil has a bounce underway, but it was stopped at the 20 ema over the last 4 days.
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GOLD peaked on day 10 so far and started to drop with that reversal high on Tuesday. I am hoping that we now get a normal pullback into an ICL and then a parabolic run higher. Let me ‘roughly’ draw that idea.
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GOLD could drop and bounce and drop and bounce lower, and it can break below the 50sma. It did that at the last ICL, and you can see that in the chart above in November.
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SILVER – Gold was down, Silver surged higher on day 11. I have openly discussed the idea of a possible ICL with that last drop, but it does NOT fit the Criteria of an ICL. That would be a crash on the 3rd daily cycle, and the 3rd daily cycle would be very right translated, so with that, I cannot see how that is a legitimate ICL drop. That said, consider this also…
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Think about this, if you follow ‘Cycles’:
Silver also became a huge failed daily cycle when it crashed down below the last 2 dcls and THE LAST ICL in just 2 days! Silver was flushed out below the last ICL. That also isn’t normal price action, so was that an anomaly ICL? And if so, what could happen?
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It was not normal price action to crash below that ICL, but Just to keep us on our toes, I want to mention that Silver flush out:
And if this now breaks to new highs, what do I think? That may signal the new strength that Silver is gaining before a parabolic run to new highs. IF SILVER IS GOING TO START RUNNING IN A PARABOLIC MANNER NOW…
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IF SILVER IS GOING TO START RUNNING IN A PARABOLIC MANNER, then this would be a new intermediate cycle for Silver. If so, it is possible that Gold also just keeps running and puts in an ICL after the parabolic run. Let me show you that...
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If Silver runs, it is possible that Gold just keeps running and puts in an ICL after the parabolic run.
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The reason that I say that is because we were really only on day 11 for Gold on Wednesday. We could see a half cycle dip and then a final blazing run into that parabolic move with Silver that I have been mentioning. Let me be clear that this is not the ‘most likely’ scenario, but I mention it because of that crash in Silver and the current rebound. It is odd price action.
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GDX – This is only the 3rd daily cycle for GDX. As usual, the Miners dropped sharply, so you really need to be careful with Miners during a Gold sell off. This may be a half cycle dip followed by a bounce and then a continuation lower. If the above scenario plays out with Silver and Gold simply blasting off from here, Miners would follow (That is still the least likely scenario at this point).
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Trading has been decent when the markets bounce, but the big picture is not crystal clear yet. I have been trading a little, but they are smaller positions, since the markets are volatile. The General Markets are moving out of the recent April slam down lows, but we are not out of danger yet. I do like some of the former bullish stocks that are acting somewhat bullishly again though, so we proceed with caution and use stops. If price continues higher, we will raise stops again. Gold & Miners pulled back on Tuesday and Wednesday, but Silver popped on Wednesday, so that sector is tricky. I’m covering it using Cycles and technical analysis, and at times one becomes bullish while the other is unclear. We have that now with Gold & The Miners pulling back short term sharply, and Silver popping higher. Stay Frosty and let’s see what the rest of this week gives us. Bitcoin broke out, I’ll cover that below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN broke out this week and finally showed some strength. With price at day 44, we do have time for more upside, since 60 days is almost 3 weeks away. Crypto stocks are moving off of the lows, but time will tell if they can surge higher like Bitcoin has.
