Thursday April 17th – Jobless Claims

As mentioned in the report yesterday, we had the Fed speaking in the afternoon (I believe NVIDIA also came out and mentioned massive losses possible with the Chinese tariffs) and the markets sold off quite steadily. Fed Chairman Powell said that the tariffs announced would lead to ‘Higher inflation and slower growth’. The sell off lasted until right before the close, when we saw a relief bounce as seen on this chart. Today we have jobless claims at 8:30 am…

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THE SPX had a decent drop and started to bounce into the close.

Next we will see if the selling continues or will buyers’ step in? There are a few scenarios on this, and I have already discussed them, but I’ll draw up a few and those next. Those that entered near the lows should have raised stops in place.  You can always get back in if you get stopped out and it holds up. We are still well off the lows so far…

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I was watching the 20 ema and The SPX was rejected there (So far). Remember that the low was day 17. I had mentioned that with the current ‘count’ out of the lows being early, we may bounce lower and make a slight new low. We would now be on day 25 from the march low.

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Sellers could also take that bad news by the Fed and just continue to bail out, giving us a continuation of that April slam down into day 35 or so.

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This is showing what a recession or bear market correction could look like.  This would cleanse the excess out of the markets until things stabilize later. Recessions and corrections could last all year, and they do have some pretty believable bounces in the first 2 daily cycles out of an ICL.

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These are those believable bounces out of the ICLs for The NASDAQ. These bounces made it all the way past the 50sma and up to the 200sma. Right now, even a bounce like that would have more upside once an ICL is in place.

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Currently, this drop may just be a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed mentioning that the economy could grow slower and inflation could become higher with the tariffs. Red arrows show that a dip after a run out of the lows is normal and that may be what we have here. This can still go either way, but some stocks do look to be trying to recover, so we’ll see what the 8:30 Jobless Claims Report does next.

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WTIC – Oil is bouncing slowly out of the lows, but I am just expecting a back-test.

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THE USD continues to be weak at the sell off lows.

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GOLD – I am still a bit worried that Gold may be in a parabolic move higher. This is only day 8, but it has been straight up, so it could continue higher and become that blow off top.

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This is GOLD at 5 a.m. Thursday morning. We have a red candle so far. Let me show you what I had been hoping to see when I called for a dip into an ICL in May and THEN a ramp up.  It still could happen…

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GOLD could still peak L.T. here and chop at the top and then drop into an ICL as shown. It would be then that I was expecting a strong ramp up and I thought that maybe this would be when Silver joins in on the run higher. This still could happen, but this current ramp up very well could be the blow off top in progress.

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SILVER slammed down, but it is recovering, and it did also get above the resistance area of both the 200 & 50 sma. That slam down does look like it could be an ICL, but that last daily cycle would be quite right translated, and that doesn’t usually happen.

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Now over the past several days we have a straight up rally with the GDX too. Just like Gold, The GDX is now starting to look like a parabolic move. It would be good if it could chop, top, and drop…and THEN run in a parabolic run.

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It would be good if it could chop, top, and then drop into an ICL. It could THEN run in a parabolic run.

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It really does feel like the markets (general markets and precious metals) have been reacting to the current investing environment. There is a lot of indecision out there and that caused the general markets to sell off. With that sell off, Gold seems to have become a safe haven, with the Miners joining in. It will take some time to see how this plays out, but I was expecting a dip into an ICL in May and then a rally for Gold, Silver, and the Miners.  That can still happen, as long as they don’t continue higher and perform a blow off top in April. Todays jobs report could move the markets too, so we’ll see what happens after 8;30 am ET. Enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX

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When I look at The BITCOIN daily chart, it is not showing any signs of strength at this point. When it broke the prior March low in April, THAT was also a failure and a sign of weakness, so I have to expect Bitcoin to eventually roll over. Volume has been light here too. RIOT, IREN, BTDR, and others are right at their lows. What about the weekly chart?

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What about the weekly chart? This actually looks pretty good, so far. It is oversold, reversed at support, and is above the downtrend line. A break above the 20 ema would give this even a more bullish look.