Friday April 4th
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QQQ – The sell off continued and since this would only be day 15, we could see a lot more selling. Please note that this stochastics is NOT oversold and the MACD is just now crossing down, so we could get more selling at any time, even if we bounce along the way.
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I used this chart and pointed out the selloff in 2003 as being only 18 days long in the final daily cycle, but we don’t want to expect that–we can just be aware of that idea. Most daily cycles are over 30 days long so we could be heading for a larger correction in the markets.
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The difference:
SPX – In 2003, we saw a ‘shakeout’, and that gave us that quick rally (shorts had to cover). I thought that we might see that this time, but instead we got a ‘back-test’ and a drop. Notice that the 2003 shake out came when the stochastics was oversold. We are not oversold here on day 15.
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I’m looking at the correction in 2022 for The NASDAQ: This became a bear market sell off after back testing the 200sma twice. We have back-tested it once here, and that is all you need to do really, but I drew a bounce out of the next dcl and we’ll see what happens at that 200sma if we get back up there again.
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NASDAQ – You can see the bearish follow through as we bounced to the 200sma and an uptrend line.
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I DO NOT WANT TO DRAW ANYONE INTO ‘LONG’ TRADES AT THIS POINT, but I do want to point something out: I was looking at stocks that may resist the selling and bottom first, just in case we are heading for that ICL in the next 2 weeks.
The following stocks are ‘INTERESTING‘, because they aren’t selling off with the markets. THEY MAY START TO WEAKEN & DROP SOON, But I keep these on my watchlist as ‘INTERESTING’ during a market crash. There are others, but I will just list 4 that I have mentioned in 2025 reports.
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WTIC – As expected, that POP in Oil was stopped at the 200sma and Oil dropped a large 6.64%! Look at Oils stochastics. I have been saying for a while that Oil might break down to $40 if it remains weak.
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USD – Also ‘as expected’, the USD bounced and dropped to the lows. This can drop even lower since it is fairly early in the daily cycle and the stochastics is not oversold.
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GOLD 6 a.m. – Yesterday Gold dropped and tried to recover, but this morning it is dropping again. It may recover again too, this bull has been very resilient, but we are on day 25 so a dip into a dcl really has come due. The expectation should be a dip will come soon.
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SILVER did not look like Gold at all.
Silver slammed down, it did bounce into midday, but it sold off again, almost back to the days’ low. This is Silver at 6 am today, and it has broken the uptrend line, so Silver is selling off with the markets more than acting like a ‘Precious Metal’.
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GDX did act like a ‘Precious’ holding. You can see that the Miners gapped down in a big way, but they clawed their way back to green and more. I captured this 1 hour after trading started ( 10:30 a.m.).
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So the GDX dropped but it worked its way all the way back to green, and then closed only slightly down. With Gold and Silver selling off, this may have been the best time to lighten up for a dcl dip.
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I’ll be discussing more of the big picture possibilities in the weekend report, but when you get a post tariff sell off like that, you need to expect more downside (even if we bounce on Friday). I posted a couple of ‘Interesting’ stocks and what I found was that some ‘Made in America’ companies may perform better, since they are not affected by the tariffs (Good year tire for example), but I am only recommending watching these from the sidelines until we get more clarity. With all of the selling, Bitcoin actually did NOT follow the markets to new lows, so I will be watching Bitcoin (& those ETFs that do follow it like BITB) as well as Crypto-stocks, just to see if they disconnect from the sell off. Enjoy your Friday trading.
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~ALEX
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THIS WAS FROM TUESDAY: So today is day 24
I will give one cautionary note here, and that is that Bitcoin often dips into a day 30 low. Is day 20 as a low enough of a dip? We’ll see, but if we go by the 30 day count, it could look a little something like this with more of a dip.
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BITCOIN day 24 – It is quite surprising that when expecting a possible dip around day 30, we did NOT sell off yesterday with the general market crash. This is Bitcoin as of Friday morning and it is red, bit it is not breaking the lows like the general markets.
