Wednesday April 2nd
I just have to mention that the U.S. President has declared that Wednesday will see an announcement pertaining to a widespread plan of tariffs. We’ll need to wait and see how the markets digest this news, but it could lead to a final sell off into the ICL. We’ll see.
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FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT: I discussed the 2003 sell off and some similarities.
The SPX 5th daily cycle that I pointed out at the 2023 lows also did a break of the prior low and a reversal, right in the same spot (see the arrows). It only had 1 up day and then it did that short quick sell off and then rocketed out of the lows to give us a very short 18 day daily cycle or just an extension of that 4th daily cycle.
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THE SPX crashed from February into March into what could have been an ICL. We bounced and just broke the lows slightly & then reversed. The real test is breaking above the 200 & 50 sma, but this may drop in a similar manner to what we saw in 2023 above.
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WTIC – Oil has been choppy and tricky. This was from February where I showed normal 50 day daily cycles (roughly). So we had a 49 day daily cycle and the 2nd was a 53 day.
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Oil then dropped to the lows at day 18, so it had plenty of time to chop around or even sell off, but it began to chop higher. This was march 27 and would be only day 34.
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WTIC – So this should be day 37 of the 3rd daily cycle. As good as it looks, I have to expect it to roll over and drop into a dcl sometime in the near future. So I have been saying that resistance at the 200sma may be able to stop this move.
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The USD has been choppy and seems weak in 2025, but that MACD looks strong. This should be a weaker 5th daily cycle, unless the USD just put in a 4th daily cycle ICL.
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GOLD – We got a doji on Tuesday and normally I would expect this to stop here at day 22, but Gold has been on a bullish tear, so we’ll wait and see. Trading Gold (GLD), I would have raised my stop from day 7 to the next higher dip. I probably would have sold half of my position with the Doji too, just to lock in gains, but this can continue higher.
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SILVER dropped and has been much more choppy than Gold.
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GDX – Miners also stalled. Some Miners are trying to follow Gold, others are not at or near their highs. All things considered, the Miners have put in a good run in 2025, when you consider what the general markets have done in 2025.
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Yesterday I mentioned that The General Markets are not fun in a 4th or 5th daily cycle. They are choppy, they threaten to drop lower, and we could be seeing a weak 5th daily cycle right now that would dip into an ICL soon. As mentioned in the opening remarks, today we are due for some kind of an announcement about widespread tariffs and that certainly could tank the markets into an ICL. It is best to try to be patient and allow this to play out. In 2025 the markets have reacted to a lot of uncertainty and change by the new administration in the U.S., but it is very possible that the markets stabilize and start to climb a wall of worry either after this ICL or the next Intermediate Cycle & that ICL. As for Gold, it is in a strong bull run. All bull runs have their dips and pullbacks into dcls and ICLs (think about when the general markets just climbed higher & higher, but they did have dips too) . Gold, Silver, and the Miners will eventually dip into an ICL, maybe in May. That will lead to a strong buy, because at that next intermediate cycle, Silver and the Miners may really find strong buying from those that have missed this last run.
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For now, short term trading is difficult in this choppy environment. Once we get a solid bottom from a confirmed ICL, trades should at least perform better for the first 2 daily cycles. I am also watching Bitcoin and I will discuss that below. Crypto stocks started to move higher at the lows, but they are tricky, so I’ll point out a couple of those too. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is on day 22 and since we often see a mild dip around day 30, I have just put in a bullish idea of a breakout and back test around day 30. We also could see Bitcoin remain under the trendline until it dips near day 30 and then breaks out and runs. Yesterday Crypto stocks dropped and reversed and actually looked good, but they may not be able to fight the general market chop until it finishes up putting in an ICL. We’ll see.
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I drew this as a possibility yesterday: I said…
I will give one cautionary note here, and that is that Bitcoin often dips into a day 30 low. Is day 20 enough? We’ll see, but if we go by the 30 day count, it could look a little something like this. Or…
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HUT (and many other crypto-stocks) are showing divergence at the lows. Hut sold off to the lows and reversed rather strongly. Others also did that…
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IREN actually made new lows this week, but the MACD continued to rise. We now see price trying to rise too.
