Tuesday April 1st – No Joke
No joke here, the markets can be quite boring when we get into the 4th or 5th daily cycle of an intermediate cycle. We discussed how things could bottom in the weekend report, so let’s start there again…
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I want to start with a reminder and something that I thought was somewhat interesting:
In the weekend report I pointed out that The SPX 4th daily cycle was 30 days long, and that is normal. The 5th one was really only about half as long, with a short 18 day cycle. I also wondered if it was just a really long 4th daily cycle of 49 days, even though it had a big bounce.
Well on Monday we saw The SPX gap down , break the lows slightly, and recovered sharply. Take a look at that reversal candle for a minute. IT COULD be a slight break and recovery that now continues to rise as day 11 and is not a failure, however this is the interesting part…
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The SPX 5th daily cycle that I pointed out at the 2023 lows also did a break of the prior low and a reversal, right in the same spot (see the arrows). It only had 1 up day and then it did that short quick sell off and then rocketed out of the lows to give us a very short 18 day daily cycle or just an extension of that 4th daily cycle.
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SPX:
1. S0 if this mimics that 2023 low, we’d roll over and quickly recover and rocket higher like the blue line, with a short 5th daily cycle.
2. The Orange line shows us a possible sell off after a bounce into a normal 35 day daily cycle. Note: I may have drawn that bounce too large.
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The NASDAQ: I have drawn a larger bounce here and a final drop into a 5th daily cycle, but again, this mat be giving the 5th daily cycle too much time.
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WTIC 1 – Oil gave us a surprise POP higher. I have been expecting this to roll over, using cycle counts, so is this now going to rally? It really shouldn’t so…
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WTIC 2 – I’m just going to point out that we have seen strong moves out of the lows die at resistance in the past too. We’ll see what happens when it gets to the 200sma, but this was a surprise move. I also have to consider that this was possibly a long ICL drop in 2025, a-b-c down.
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THE USD is still acting as expected.
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GOLD is such a strong bull that it just keeps running on day 21, and has reached $3126/oz after pausing at $3000. The Miners are not exactly following Gold and neither is Silver, but if you were in Gold /GLD it was recommended that you would raise stops and let things run. A measured move of 2-3 could still push higher.
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SILVER gave us a drop that started to recover. This drop, along with the general markets dropping, did not help Miners.
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The GDX dropped and started to recover, which was similar to what Silver and The General Markets did, and not Golds move.
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Some miners followed what Gold did, but most dropped with the general markets and tried to recover. HMY followed Gold. HMY has moved from $8 to $14.50 in 2025. I sold mine a while ago 🙁
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I just wanted to point out 2 rare earth stocks again, because they haven’t dropped with the General Markets. They might work out as buy & hold (with a stop under support?).
REEMF is one of those companies, but volume can be light in this one.
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UAMY was mentioned in the past and it has actually had a nice run along the 10sma in March, despite the market sell off.
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DBC (Commodities) was chopping along the 50sma and it popped yesterday, despite the markets dropping, so I thought that this is noteworthy too.
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The General Markets are not fun in a 4th or 5th daily cycle. They are choppy, they threaten to drop lower, and we could be seeing a weak 5th daily cycle that would dip into an ICL. It is best to try to be patient and allow this to play out. In 2025 the markets have reacted to a lot of uncertainty and change by the new administration in the U.S., but it is very possible that the markets stabilize and start to climb a wall of worry either after this ICL or the next Intermediate Cycle & that ICL.
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We also will start to see a dip with Gold and Silver eventually, but that ICL (that could come in May) would be a big ‘Buy’ opportunity. Each rally could get steeper and steeper with Gold going parabolic and Silver playing catch up. There usually comes a time in Golds bull market when Silver finally becomes very attractive and explodes higher with buyers. Silver stocks will finally make a power move and we do want to be focused on that when it happens. Until then, we may have some boring choppiness that we have to wait out with Miners too.
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I have not been trading very much at all over the past 2 weeks. It is springtime in New England and I am finding that this choppiness is making this a good time to take care of some yard work for my mother and get some other things done. The trading has been very choppy and some positions that I entered recently stopped me out rather quickly, so I am barley trading right now. If you are trading, Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT:
1. BITCOIN is now in a downtrend.
2 It bottomed on day 57 and that is almost perfect, but it has been choppy out of those lows.
3. Bitcoin gained the 200sma and 20 ema, that was good, but now it lost both and we need to be very careful with this selling. A break of day 57 is an early failure and we’d have a lot of time for this to sell off.
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A break of day 57 is an early failure and we’d have a lot of time for this to sell off, but Bitcoin bounced and did NOT do as the general markets did yesterday. Bitcoin did NOT take out the recent lows, so now we’ll see if it can rally. I will give one cautionary note here…
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I will give one cautionary note here, and that is that Bitcoin often dips into a day 30 low. Is day 20 enough? We’ll see, but if we go by the 30 day count, it could look a little something like this. Or…
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If Bitcoin recovers the 200sma, breaking the downtrend, I would say that the mid-cycle lows could be in place at day 20, but a back test of the trendline could also give is that day 30 low. I would love to see the crypto stocks bottom and lead the way, but that may depend on when the General markets bottom too.
