March 27 Thursday – Choppy at the Lows
Today we have the jobless claims release at 8:30 am.
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The SPX paused on Tuesday and dipped lower on Wednesday. It lost the 200sma and may continue lower to do a gap fill, or it may bounce here off of the 8 ema and regain that 200sma.
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SPX – If we have an ICL in place, the lows should not be taken out, but all should know that this can drop back to the lows and give us a double bottom low and a back test of that trendline and things would still be ok. A break of the lows would be bad. I’m hoping that we just move higher sooner than later, because most have raised their stops to day 6 and may need to find a way back in if we drop below it and bounce back. We did drop like this on day 3 as a 1 day dip.
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THE NASDAQ also may be doing a gap fill, but we’ll have to wait and see. You can see that we did drop like this 7 days ago and it was just a 1 day event, so it would be nice if that was all that this is too.
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WTIC – Oil is bouncing, but I am thinking that it is a weak bounce that could be capped near the 50sma.
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THE USD is bouncing toward the resistance of a 200sma and a downtrend. I was thinking that we may have 1 more daily cycle lower, but this COULD be an ICL, so we’ll have to wait and see. Note: The USD has not been affecting Golds movement for the past few months.
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GOLD paused on day 18, but it can make another quick run before dipping lower since we can get surprises to the upside.
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LIVE GOLD: Gold has started to move higher on Thursday morning and we are on day 19. We could run up and make new highs, but in the bigger picture I feel that we might be peaking in this area. UPDATE 6:30 a.m. – Gold and Silver both just ran higher quickly in this hour.
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Yesterday I mentioned why we might be peaking:
I noticed that GOLD has had this divergence at the higher high in the past too. What happened next? The IC peaked there and then it dipped into the next ICL, but these have been choppy and sideways, rather than deeper drops.
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Notice that the last ‘peak’ was a double top with a higher high, so we could see that here too. That is why I drew it that way yesterday, with one more run up in Gold, but then I think that we start to gradually drop into the next Intermediate Cycle Low.
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SILVER did a small pop and drop, so it paused too. Silver only looks to be on daily cycle number 2, unless we have 2 very short 23ish day daily cycles, so this can run to the top of this channel, maybe near $35 or so.
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GDX rallied sharply in January and February. We saw a normal dip into a dcl and now we are on day 19 on Thursday. GDX is at 12 year highs and it can go higher. The next target could actually be near $48.
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Today we have the release of the jobless claims and that might give us a glimpse of whether or not these general markets are ready to climb a wall of worry and continue higher, or will they react by heading lower. At this point it looks like we have the lows in place, but the markets do have room to move lower or higher.
Gold, Silver, and the Miners can run higher, and they just popped in pre-market trading.
I’m thinking that Gold may make new highs and then it could chop sideways while Silver and the Miners move higher, since they bottomed a bit later than Gold. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is above the 20 ema and is on day 16 today, so that is 16 days of a possible 60 day run. We have a lot of ‘time’ to make good gains if Bitcoin decides to run higher and leave this choppiness behind, but so far it is lack-luster. Crypto stocks are mixed, with some holding up ‘o.k.’, and others seemingly affected by the general market selling.
