In this Weekend Report, I want to keep things fairly simple by mainly using a weekly chart in the sectors that we currently have a clear understanding of. In Friday’s discussion of the General Markets, I mentioned that we might see a possible 5th daily cycle if we don’t start to see some upside action this coming week. I’ll include more detail on that too. Let’s go to the charts!
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NASDAQ WEEKLY – So far we have a steep, but fairly normal correction into an ICL. The only difference here is that we closed under the 50 week ma, so we saw more weakness. We now want to see a push back above that $18,122 area, to recover that trendline and 50 week ma. If this is an ICL, it will recover and remain bullish. If we have a 5th daily cycle, then this will lose the uptrend and become more bearish.
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THE SOXX WEEKLY – The SOXX has been week and choppy for months, and it lost the uptrend on this drop, but if this is an ICL, we should be able to see a recovery and it could turn bullish. Note: If we have another daily cycle, as mentioned in Fridays report, this would then become pretty bearish.
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SPX DAILY – So on Friday we dropped and recovered the 10sma, and for day 6 this looks fine. If this is an ICL, we should see some upside action soon and start to recover losses.
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SPX WEEKLY – The weekly chart here is to show you the ‘timing’ on a weekly bases. IT DOES VARY:
1. We get long and short intermediate cycles, but commonly we see around 25 weeks on shorter bull runs,
2. We occasionally see 30+ weeks on a deeper correction. So you recall that I thought week 23 was an ICL when it broke to new highs, and this is why. However…
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SPX WEEKLY – The ‘week 23 lows’ were taken out, so it looks more like a 4th daily cycle developed and now has given us a 31 week possible ICL/ reversal at the 50 week ma. THAT still fits the pattern. We could fly higher from here and be fine. That still may happen, but if we get a 5th daily cycle and 36 weeks, I would hope that it only slightly breaks the current lows, because…
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SPX WEEKLY – Moving higher from here out of an ICL is ideal, because we are at a midpoint trendline and that 50week ma. Bouncing L.T. and then dropping lower could get bearish quickly. NEXT WEEK REALLY MAY SAY A LOT.
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SUMMARY: We have now wasted 1 week at the lows, so Friday and next week is important for us to see if this is normal bottoming and then we move higher? Or is this weakness that will cause us to roll over after being rejected at the 200sma.
Now Take a look at the ‘bottoming process’ of April 2014. That bounced, dipped on day 4, bounced again, and dipped on day 8 before breaking higher, so there is time here to move higher, and FRIDAY was an ok day. now we’ll just need to watch next week and see how this plays out.
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We’ll just need to watch next week and see how this plays out. We may just move up & out of this area like we did in April 2024 after a slow start.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil is hanging at the lows, and in past weekend reports, I mentioned that I feel that it is actually going to break down over time. There is minimal support between $60 and $40, so Oil could drop to that $40 area.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD has played out exactly as expected. We could get 1 more daily cycle to drop this to the lower support area, but in the past the blue 200 week ma has acted as support. We could just bounce and chop and land on that.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold has been hitting new highs for 11 of the last 12 weeks! I said that I had a target of $3040 when we broke from the large cup, but also that it can extend from there. Well, Gold hit $3056 last week and it could be going parabolic. Pullbacks are rare and shallow, so the advice was to stay invested, raise stops and see what we get. Our basket of Miners has done well over time.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver is doing ‘o.k.’, but it is mentally disappointing when you see what Gold is doing. Silver could kick it into gear and play catch up and we’ve seen ‘straight up’ rallies in 2010 and 2020, so we continue to hold some Silver stocks.
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GDX started to ramp up in 2025. I’ve been expecting it to eventually get back up to the 2011 highs. We’ll see. This too is a bit disappointing with Gold blasting to new all-time highs each week, but some individual miners have done better than others.
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The bulls have been in control for quite a while now, with normal corrections along the way. Lately with the new administration in the U.S., however, we’ve seen a lot of sudden changes, and the markets do not take uncertainty very well. Will all of the new tariffs cause inflation? They already caused ‘counter tariffs’ from the targeted countries. What will happen with all of the government firings & deportations? Is unemployment going to spike? And what is the next big move? So the markets got very choppy and they’ve been unable to hold gains. Next we have to watch and see if our ICL is in place. Once you have an ICL, the markets often shake off bad news and suddenly climb a wall of worry, we saw that all through the 2020-2022 years of covid. We are waiting to see what next week brings us, and hopefully we see the buying push us out of the lows and into a nice move higher. The precious metals sector has been doing just fine. Bitcoin will be covered below.
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Enjoy your weekend and thanks for being here at Chartfreak with me!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I have us showing a day 57 low and that it very good for the expectations of a 60 day low. Bitcoin is not gaining traction yet. Is it waiting for the general markets? Possibly. If it breaks these downtrend lines and closed above the 20 ema, I expect it to start running higher, but I did notice something interesting on the weekly charts too…
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – It may not be important, but each time Bitcoin tagged the 50 week ma, it chopped sideways before finally taking off higher. This could be a bottoming process, but at times when this happens, the crypto stocks start to run ahead of bitcoin, so that is something that I’ll be watching for going forward too.
Friday March 21st – What’s It Going To Be? 
Tuesday March 25th
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