Friday March 21st – What’s It Going To Be?
Today is Friday and there is no data being released today, so I’m hoping that we get some upside flow in the markets. I want to discuss the current set ups. They can currently be viewed as both Bullish, and they can be viewed as bearish or a bit concerning, so let me explain that. I will also discuss it more in the weekend big picture report.
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THE SPX is on day 5 and you may recall that I said we would take the trade and see how it looks around day 12 or so. Well, I honestly expected that with THAT KIND of a sell off, a real STEEP selloff, we’d get a V-Bottom, with ‘short covering’ and buyers. That would help our positions to be well off of the bottom when we examine things on day 12 or so. Right now, this is lack-luster, and we are still near the lows. WHAT IS THE CONCERN?…
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My short-term concerns for The SPX is that it is starting to act like a bear flag. Is this a 5th daily cycle?
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When I said that we’d go long and examine things around day 12, this was the reason for that. I want us to be above the blue 200sma by the time we get to day 12, because if this forms as a weak L.T. Daily cycle, we could be looking at daily cycle #5 and that would give us an even deeper bear market correction. I also do not see GOOG, NVDA, AAPL, etc leaving their lows.
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There is 1 other situation, that I wrote off as an ‘overshoot’ was when it took place. Let’s revisit that.
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The SPX bottomed and looked like an ICL in January, because it broke to new all-time highs. That looked like an ICL, but the NASDAQ & SOXX did NOT do that, so when it sold off again, I just counted that as a fluke. Maybe the SPX just did an ‘overshoot’. If that was only a first daily cycle and it sold off like that?? You can just imagine how bad this would get in a 2nd and 3rd. However…
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Like I said, The NASDAQ never made new highs and had 3 daily cycles, so I pictured this as daily cycle 4. Will we get a daily cycle #5? Time will tell.
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SUMMARY: We have now wasted 1 week at the lows, so today and next week is important for us to see if this is normal bottoming and then we move higher? Or is this weakness that will cause us to roll over after being rejected at the 200sma. Take a look at the ‘bottoming process of April 2014. That bounced, dipped on day 4, bounced again, and dipped on day 8 before breaking higher, so there is time here. WE MIGHT BE DOING THAT, and we’ll just need more time for this to play out.
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WTIC – Oil may bounce here, but the timing is still showing that Oil can have more downside, because an ICL will be coming due.
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USD – I am expecting another weak daily cycle with the USD. If the Dollar breaks above the blue 200sma and runs to the red 50sma, then we may have an ICL.
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GOLD LIVE FRIDAY 5 a.m. – Gold is dropping. but in that last strong run we would have 1-3 days of chop and then continue higher, so will that repeat? It could, but if it starts to really break lower here, we could have a day 14 peak.
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SILVER dropped overnight to the 20ema. I’d like to see a bounce here, but it has broken below the 20ema in past runs. Silver tends to be quite choppy.
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GDX dropped on Thursday with Gold & Silver, but the Miners started to find buyers and it kept going green as the day went on. It only closed down 7 cents.
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With Gold and Silver both down yesterday, we did see individual miners going green, as seen on these 3 charts below.
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I’m not trying to sound the alarm, but todays report was meant to just share 2 very valid scenarios with the general markets that I am watching. This could be a ‘bottoming process’ similar to what we saw in April 2024, or we could be in a 5th daily cycle that is struggling to get enough upside buying. Let’s see what Friday does, since there is no data being released, and I will discuss this further in the weekend report. Right now, I stand by the idea that we ‘Buy the lows’ and allow it to do its thing for around 12 days, to see where we are at that time. With a daily cycle of possibly 40+ days, we could actually run for 10-15 days and still be L.T., so we do have time to allow this to develop further. Next week will give us a better idea of how this dcl plays out. Enjoy your Friday trading and enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN moved above the 20ema and the 200sma, but then it dropped back down. Bitcoin is slightly off of the lows and Crypto stocks are still near the lows too, so if this is going to make a strong run, you have not missed the trade. Crypto stocks are waiting for Bitcoin or the general markets to make an upward move.
