Friday February 21st – Not Always a Straight Path Higher
The opening picture is just a reminder, since we have had some very choppy markets lately. Gold & The GDX have moved almost straight up, but The General Markets, Oil, and Silver have been pretty choppy. That chop can continue, but it often builds energy for a smoother run later, so if buyers can take control, the next daily cycles can become steadier rallies.
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The SPX gave us a higher high on day 25 making this a R.T. Daily Cycle. At this point these markets can continue higher, get choppy, or start to drop, because a dcl comes around day 35+. That is what makes this tricky, but it really doesn’t have to be because the set up should be considered bullish. A daily cycle low can come on day 35 or we’ve seen them on day 50! So let’s just expect more upside and if it dips into a dcl, it should be a buy the dip opportunity
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With an ICL in place, This is now viewed as a Bullish consolidation:
When we look at the markets and when we look at The NASDAQ, we see that the long period of uncertainty caused a lot of choppiness. This can actually build a lot of energy for a run higher, so whether we dip into a dcl first (as drawn) or if we just break and run and back test as a dcl, it should move higher.
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WTIC – Oil has been very choppy at the lows, but it is working its way toward the Apex of a very large triangular consolidation. The weekend report will cover the possibilities, but basically this can break higher or lower long term.
REMINDER: Yesterday I discussed that many Oil stocks are chopping along the lows too, as seen with VET.
See NOG, APA, VLO, WTI, VET, etc.
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THE USD was due to roll over and it has, since we have a day 5 peak on this daily cycle. Daily cycle lengths have really varied a lot lately, but at day 19, we could see one around here. Many have come in at day 25+ lately though. I think that when all is said and done, we could see the USD around the 200sma.
YESTERDAY I SAID ABOUT GOLD:
This was GOLD at 4 a.m. and it is at another new all-time high. DCLs are not visible on this run, since price didn’t break the 8 ema, however take a look at the recent pause. This recent consolidation does now resemble a triangle and that may be the low or ‘pause’ in this run. I knew Gold would be strong, but this is stronger than I expected, based on past rallies that had more visible dips along the way.
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GOLD on Friday morning: Gold dropped overnight to the 8 ema and then it started to bounce again. The chop continues so far, without a real visible dcl.
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SILVER obviously has not been running as strong and as swiftly as Gold has at all. What we do have is the Bullish alignment of the 50 & 200sma and often price will run higher from here, especially coming out of an ICL. Silver bounced off of the 200sma and is chopping higher.
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GDX has had a strong run higher once the choppiness at the lows ended. We just saw a 50/200sma cross upward and that is often bullish longer term. I see no visible dcls in GDX, so it has been in a stronger run, especially when compared to the April to October push higher.
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Bigger picture: More upside is likely over time. I pointed out this rising channel pattern along the way in 2024. The ICL sell off was a crash, but we can see that The GDX is recovering. It still has more upside potential to reach that upper trend line.
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AG – We finally saw an earnings report in a Silver stocks that did not crash the price. AG was up over 7% after releasing earnings in the morning and is still in an oversold condition, so hopefully First majestic will start to run.
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NGD also had a bullish earnings pop.
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BTG also bullish earnings pop
HL and other Silver stocks that crashed down over 10% or more recently also started to try to recover with Silver higher, so this is bullish price action. I noticed that many of these fell to support areas and are reversing, like HL at the 50sma.
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The bulls remain in control, but some areas have been choppy. Hopefully that choppiness and uncertainty dies down and a rally can develop out of the pent-up energy in these consolidations. Bitcoin is below, have a great Friday & weekend everyone!
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I pointed out this triangle on day 38 for BITCOIN –
I wondered if Bitcoin would finally break above that 20 ema and give us some upside progress too? It was pushing on the 20 ema then. Well, it did break above the 20 ema, but stalled at the 50 sma…
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So this would be Bitcoin day 39 on Friday morning: It hit the 50 sma and stalled, and it is still within the triangle as drawn. It does have time to breakout and run…
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I love the gains in the Crypto Stocks when they get running, but right now I do not see any real strength in HUT, RIOT, MARA, WULF, and so on… yet. They are still at their lows. So are they waiting for a Bitcoin breakout? Maybe. Or will they just continue to chop even if Bitcoin runs? Maybe. Only time will tell. I’m ready to buy if they do run.
