Thursday February 6th
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THE SPX is on day 16 and after that double dip it seems to be trying to stabilize and move higher. That could be considered a half cycle low if this daily cycle is 30-40 days long.
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Yesterday I said:
THE IWM dropped and filled a gap on Monday and bounced back on Tuesday too. You can see that the small caps have been capped by the 50sma, so a push above that area would be a bullish move.
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On Wednesday THE IWM started to try to push above that 50 sma. I’ve seen some clean energy stocks a start to do well, and oddly enough MJ Stocks rallied yesterday when ACB came out with earnings.
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ACB popped over 50% when it came out with earnings in the morning. Other MJ Stocks also rallied , joining in on the move. Will it continue, like we saw last March , April, May, or will it just be a quick pop and drop? It is hard to know in the current environment, but the stocks did pop out of the lows if you want to follow them and see if a trade develops there over time (Buy a dip?).
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WTIC continues to drop and lost the 50sma yesterday. It is seeking out a dcl and possibly an ICL after that.
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The USD was riding the 20 ema quite reliably until we reached the end of the 3rd daily cycle and now this 4th one. I have said that I expect this daily cycle to be weaker and roll over eventually into an ICL drop. It is now bouncing along the 50sma, but could break down at any time. That USD drop may add some push to Gold as it heads toward $3000+.
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GOLD doesn’t need any help, does it? After breaking out bullishly from the Triangle it has continued to run higher. Last week I mentioned that with this strong run, and dip into a dcl could be very mild (or sideways) and it could be easier to ride out, rather than try to trade around it. Some of my favorite Miners ( AU, AEM, HMY, KGC, IAG, etc) have done well, others that I pointed out as lagging (SA, SAND, BTG, MUX, NG, NGD, etc) are starting to try to play catch up.
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GDX was a real lagger that just started to play catch up recently, as a matter of fact. That was a deep sell off and it was a bit choppy near the lows, but it has started to add some gains out of the ICL.
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LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING: YOU MAY RECALL THAT HMY WAS A LAGGER AS OF LAST MONTH
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With HMY, I pointed this out as a buy Near $8 in January when it broke from a bullish wedge, but it was also lagging horribly with Gold at all-time highs. Volume was increasing and it broke the downtrend, so it was a buy with a stop, and hopefully it would play catch up. It should run back to $12…
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HMY is now back at the $12 area after a strong run playing catch up. This was one of my favorite Gold stocks, but it was late to the party too, wasn’t it? Gold was at all time highs in December and HMY was near the lows with GDX in January. This shows that others may play catch up too.
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IAG was actually lagging a little with that sideways chop along the 50 sma / ema, but it finally broke from the sideways consolidation recently and has been joining in on Golds rally.
SAND was mentioned as a lagger by me too. I used this chart in December, when Miners were at the lows and Gold was at the highs…
SAND was now breaking out on Jan 30, and I pointed this out then,
SAND took off higher this week.
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SA was also a ‘lagger’ that I pointed out under the 50sma (Pinched). It popped yesterday and was up almost 6% in the morning. It then did a ‘pop & drop’ and closed up only 3%, so this may chop a little, but I think that it may start to plat catch up.
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AND I ALSO POINTED OUT LAGGER SILVER STOCKS YESTERDAY: WILL WE LOOK BACK IN A MONTH AND SEE THAT THESE HAVE DONE WHAT HMY JUST DID? IT IS POSSIBLE:
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Yesterday I said:
FSM WEEKLY– FSM is a very bullish looking weekly chart. A triangle consolidation has formed above the original base, and in 2024 the entire year was choppy and difficult, but this shows that a consolidation formed all last year and it looks ready to go now.
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Yesterday I said:
CDE – The real overhead trendline is due to a large triangular consolidation. These build energy, so CDE has been churning for months and once it breaks out, I think that it could run well.
1. Notice how it ran higher in early 2024. Now it has been consolidating those gains.
2. Also notice how it rode the red 200 sma in January. Support is above $6.00
3. Volume is swelling, Silver looks to have an ICL, do you own a little CDE? 🙂
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Bitcoin is below, Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has been chopping along in a rectangular consolidation up here near all-time highs. Unfortunately, it is hard to tell exactly when (or even ‘if’) this will break out to new all-time highs. I have been expecting a run toward the $120,000 area, but this choppy sideways move has stalled the progress of Crypto stocks & the ETFs.
