Thursday January 30 – Post-Fed Charts, So Far
Yesterday was Fed Wednesday and after some volatility and intraday chop, the markets sectors slowly started to rise up in the final hour of trading. Let’s just review the charts and see if everything is still ‘O.K.’
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THE SPX is still O.K. It dropped to the 50sma last Monday with the AI News, but it is bouncing back and actually, I see a back test of the downtrend breakout. If you did not know about Mondays crash and I showed you this chart, it might just look like normal market reading. This is day 11 of possibly 35+
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NASDAQ crashed hard on Monday, but it has recovered the 50sma so far and it bounced off of the 50sma yesterday before bouncing back post Fed. So far, the Nasdaq is ‘o.k.’ too. In fact…
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In fact, the Nasdaq looks similar to what we saw in November, and that did recover. In fact, most probably didn’t even remember that crash day.
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WTIC – oil is dropping down into a dcl, and after that it could be due for an ICL. I’ll discuss that in the big picture weekend report.
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The USD seems to have formed a dcl as it tries to break that downtrend. I expect a weaker L.T. Daily cycle and then a dip for the USD into its’ ICL. The MACD had divergence on the last higher high, so I don’t really expect a higher high on this daily cycle.
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GOLD has rallied quite well out of the apex of the triangle. Now this gets really tricky, because it was coming due for a dcl, but now we saw a pause, some chop, and a continuation higher. THAT is not a normal dcl, but…
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GOLD has similar ‘pauses’ and we see 2 different reactions after that pause. One looked to be a dcl and the other blue one was likely a half cycle dip, but the question now is, “Was that enough to be a dcl in Gold?” I don’t think so normally, but it was day 28. IF we got a dip from here into day 33, I think it would be quite mild and obviously short lived. Also, as mentioned, some Miners are at the highs ( AEM, KGC, HMY, AU, etc), so they can just continue to be held if any dips come along. Hopefully the laggers now play catch up in February.
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SILVER has not broken the downtrend on Stock charts, but when you look at ‘Spot Silver’ the downtrend was broken. Regardless of that, Silver has been choppy but it has also been riding along the 200sma. IN PRE-MARKET TRADING, SILVER IS HIGHER and a move above yesterdays lows could break this downtrend, if you are keeping track.
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Yesterday I said:
GDX has been moving higher in a choppy manner for the entire run out of the lows. It only looks like day 18 for the GDX.
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GDX day 19. It was choppy on Fed Wednesday, and GDX was at the lows of the day heading into 2 p.m. It then Popped when the decision was released and chopped sideways as the fed spoke. It closed the day recovering half of the days trading range. After all is said and done, GDX remains bullish ( but choppy). I think that the 2nd daily cycle might play out even better than the first.
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The Bulls survived Mondays crash and yesterdays fed meeting, but they did stagger around a bit, didn’t they? It has been a choppy week and we have the jobs report today, but that takes place pre-market and from here we should, I would think, see things straighten out and continue higher in the General Markets. Oil is pulling back. Precious Metals are in the timing area for the first dcl. Did that happen in the recent dip? It was not a deep dip that turned down the 10sma, but we are due and Gold is continuing higher right now. At this point, whether we are early in a second daily cycle or late in the first daily cycle, it can just be ‘buy and hold’ rather than trading around the dcl, because it should be mild and fairly short lived if we see a day 33 or so dip. It would be a good place to add to positions if it happens. Gold looks very good and Silver seems ready to break out on the next daily cycle. Bitcoin has been choppy, but remains bullish too. I’ll discuss that below. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I discussed 2 likely Bullish scenarios for Bitcoin, so let’s look at those 2 ideas and then we’ll see what happened Post-Fed.
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On day 15, BITCOIN could just move higher and begin to breakout with the Fed decision, or…
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BITCOIN may continue to chop as mentioned a week ago, giving us a cup and handle over time. Either way, I don’t think that the Crypto stocks will move higher until Bitcoin breaks out and runs, and even then, they may not join in. The ETfs may be the way to invest in Bitcoin.
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BITCOIN -This morning I see Bitcoin breaking a small downtrend and continuing higher. It looks like scenario #1 so far, if this move doesn’t become a false breakout, but do I want the ETFs or Crypto stocks? The ETFS should follow Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is choppy but long term bullish…
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So far, we have to wait and see if Crypto stocks start to follow Bitcoin or not.
RIOT: To be honest, the general Market crash put Most back down at recent lows when Bitcoin is near the breakout highs. Crypto stocks got slammed down and now they’ve been lagging at this point. You can see that General Market crash day on Monday with Riot here. It moved RIOT from the highs back to the lows. If the General Markets move higher, it is possible that they will improve. Time will tell.
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IREN – As you can see, IREN was following Bitcoin higher last week, but it crashed on Monday with the General Markets. That was a horrible day for RIOT, WULF, HUT, IREN. Now the question is–what will they do from here. Buy with a stop, if you are a higher risk, brave trader.
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Important Note: Bitcoin live again at 5:30 a.m. Thursday morning.
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BITCOIN -The break higher this morning is bullish, but it needs to be noted that Bitcoin can still remain choppy if a handle is forming, and that could last for weeks. If a handle is forming, those Crypto stocks would likely base out and chop sideways, and that would be frustrating.
