January 25th Weekend Report
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IN FRIDAYS REPORT I MENTIONED THAT: It would be great to get a pull back for a day or two next week, just to fill the gap and retest the 50sma, because that would make a great buying opportunity. It does NOT have to happen though. This applied to the SPX, IWM, SOXX, etc…
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THE SPX: The General Markets did stall and may give us a pullback on Friday, but we’ll need to wait and see if we get more selling for that gap fill or not. The markets have given us a strong push out of the ICL so far.
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ONLY WEEK 2!!
I just wanted to use The NASDAQ WEEKLY to show past moves out of the ICLs and DCLs. The moves remained pretty strong with occasional dips, so it is a ‘buy the dip’ market if we get one.
NOTE: This is week 2! Look at the Green or Magenta arrows and you’ll see many green weeks after that.
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WTIC WEEKLY #1 – This is a 4 year view of Oil. In 2021-2022, Oil had a solid rally from about $30 to $130, and then a very choppy move lower over the next 3 yrs. Oil now appears to have broken out from that 3 year downtrend and then dropped last week. It may just back test…
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WTIC WEEKLY #2– Zooming in on a 2.5 year chart we actually did not break out from a 2 year downtrend and if Oil is due for a drop into a dcl, it may chop even lower. This could actually affect the 3 year breakout if it then continues down into an ICL, so I am watching to see if Oil can hold up or sells off, after this weeks drop…
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WTIC WEEKLY #3 – Oil could also put in a dcl at the 10 week ma and then have 1 more new high on the next daily cycle to complete this breakout and simply be a back test on that larger 4 year view. Past rallies have rolled over, so this one is not at the end of the APEX yet either.
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THE USD finally started to sell off over the past 2 weeks also. In that very strong rally of 2021-2022 it never closed below the 10 week ma for very long and it never broke below the 10 week ma much more than it is right now. On a daily we are due for a dcl, so realistically, it could bounce back from here. What if it drops lower?
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THE USD could then bounce with a weaker daily cycle (L.T.) and give is a lower shoulder as it then seeks out an ICL. We could be at that point, because the USD has signs of weakness in the daily chart…
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THE USD :
1. That MACD is weak.
2. Go right to the Red Arrows and you see signs of weakening with this selling as opposed to prior dips.
3. That was 3 strong daily cycles, but now we will likely see a weaker 4th that heads down into an ICL in 4 or 5 daily cycles. Gold can run to $3000+
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GOLD – Gold has 4 weeks higher out of the lows and it broke bullishly from the triangle. It may pause with a dcl that is due, if the USD bounces, but it should run higher over time. Gold remains bullish.
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THE SILVER WEEKLY CHART has not broken out yet. Silver is actually coming due for a dcl, so it could pull back soon, form a higher low, and then break out. That is 1 very possible scenario, since Gold already broke out…
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SILVER WEKLY – As you can see, however, Silver has a tendency to be very choppy and it is not at the apex of the wedge. That means that an ICL for Silver may come with the next daily cycle making a new low. That is also a possibility, but the Stochastics does already look like it bottomed and curled up. Silver is due for a dcl too, so it will very likely show us strength or weakness with the next dcl in the next week or so (higher low dcl, or lower low ICL)
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GDX WEEKLY – I know there has been disappointment in the Miners, some have remained weak, but the GDX WEEKLY shows us a steady climb out of the lows (ICL) for 4 weeks. The good news is that after 4 weeks higher, it should soon be ready to dip into a dcl, and that will be a ‘buy’. Now for some Good News: The 2nd daily cycle also might be a much stronger daily cycle after the dip to a higher low. That may signal buyers to enter positions. My advise is this…
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My advise is this: Buy the dip on the leaders showing strength. The funds buying most likely will buy the leaders too. A lagger here and there may be fine, especially if you see them start to move higher, but a majority of your basket at the dcl may do better with leaders like KGC, AEM, HMY, etc etc. They are at the highs and may pull back to the 50sma
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Again, My advise is this: Buy the dip on the leaders showing strength. If AU dips to $26, Funds may start buying it and take it to $40 or more.
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The Bulls are still in Control. Hope you are all enjoying your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has been quite bullish, but it hit resistance as it got back up to former highs. That often happens and sometimes we see a sideways chop that puts a ‘handle’ on the cup. That doesn’t have to happen, we could just see this chop for a few days and then a break higher, but just in case the chop continues…
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BITCOIN – Just in case the chop continues, I wanted to give you an idea of how a handle could form. This could even take us into February. I am now starting to see the Crypto stocks move higher with Bitcoin, but at this point they are also as choppy as Bitcoin, so keep that in mind until this starts to trend higher.
