Wednesday January 15th
DATA: Yesterday we had PPI data and it sent the markets higher, so todays data may do the same, but there was something with yesterdays trading that was ugly, so I’ll point that out…
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SPX #1: As a reminder, We are waiting for a dcl but could still drop lower into an ICL now or with the next daily cycle. We now have a swing low, but price is not over the 10sma to try to confirm a dcl. The MACD is weak.
SPX #2 – Overall, the markets gapped higher and climbed yesterday to put in that swing low, but you see that doji candle? The markets were trading higher yesterday and in the final hour of trading it suddenly and swiftly sold off sharply. I couldn’t find news, so I switched on CNBC and they didn’t have a cause either, so I still have no idea what caused it. Let me show you an intraday chart, just so you can see what I mean…
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This was The QQQ and after gapping open higher, we got that normal midday swoon to fill that gap, and then it started to rally back up to the highs. Crypto stocks also dipped and climbed back to the highs, but suddenly we saw this Boom – Boom drop at 3 p.m.. That continued and actually brought the QQQ to new lows of the day in Minutes! It then started to try to recover…
This is the entire day: QQQ (& SPY and Crypto stocks) Crashed to new lows of the day. The General Markets started to try to recover, as seen here, but I was holding crypto stocks and they dropped too. Of the 4 that I was holding, 2 started to recover, 2 lingered at the lows. That was a little concerning, so I’m definitely hoping that we see things move higher out of the gate on onward. At times…
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RIOT FOR EXAMPLE: You can see that Riot gapped open (5% up), then sold down, filled most of the gap, and started to rally strongly from $11.93 to $12.70. Thats one dollar per share, so 1000 shares would see a $1000.00 gain. Suddenly RIOT crashed and gave that $1000 gain back in minutes and it started to look like it might recover, but it did not. It stayed closer to the lows. THIS was with Bitcoin back at the highs, so I just wanted to point this out to you all. My Point? Crypto stocks seemed to follow the markets more than following Bitcoin for now.
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At times, you will get a candle like yesterday with price closing well under the days’ highs. The next day price can gap open higher and that gap open doesn’t have to fill, because it already traded in that area. I’ve drawn that here and I’d like to see that after the CPI Numbers, but if this isn’t a dcl, then we may head even lower. CRYPTO STOCKS could follow the markets lower, based on what I saw yesterday, so I just wanted to point that out to those holding them. It’s a 50/50 chance in my opinion.
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WTIC – Oil dipped on Tuesday, and it may crawl along or back test the 200sma.
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GOLD was not up very much yesterday ($3.70 on this chart) and Silver was not up very much, but the Miners had a very nice day. That is great, it may indicate that the Miners are finding buyers and will lead the way higher.
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SILVER was up 4 cents? Most silver miners took off and were up 5-7%! That is welcome news to me.
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In the morning I saw The GDX perk up and crawl along the resistance of the 8 ema on a 10 minute chart, so I posted this. It looked ready to break higher (so a GDXU trade could pay off).
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GDX broke shortly after and rallied straight up. On a daily chart, it ran to the 50sma…
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GDX – On a daily chart, it ran to the 50sma, which has been resistance lately. This price action, with Gold and Silver barely up. tells me that the GDX may be ready to break out. Both Gold and Silver stocks did well yesterday.
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CDE INTRADAY – CDE & other silver stocks had that same early push at the red moving average and then suddenly took off higher too.
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CDE was up about 7% and the set up is a nice one with the 200 and 50 pinching price.
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AG was up almost 6% and has a bullish descending wedge formation. I actually pointed out several of these recently in my reports.
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MAG also rode the 200sma area and was up over 6% yesterday.
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IN LAST FRIDAYS REPORT, I POSTED THESE 4 CHARTS:
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EGO is now pushing on the 50sma & 200sma. I hate that the 50sma looks ready to cross under the 200sma, sometimes called the death cross, but that can change. The MACD & RSI are becoming bullish.
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IAG was a good runner on the last run, and it has regained the 50sma. yes, these Miners have been choppy and lackluster, but they may slowly climb higher.
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And then we get to HMY: You may recall that this one was my favorites in 2024. I had a buy & hold position when I had a basket and I traded it, and it was a winner, so why is it trashed? I think that it is a buying opportunity with a stop at these lows. It has the death cross, but I bought it this week anyway. Notice how HMY ran straight up in October before the Miners sold off, so I think that all of those buyers may have bailed out or took profit, causing that drop.
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CDE I like what the Silver miners are doing, since Silver has only been choppy. I did buy EXK, AG, CDE recently and EXK dropped on news of a delay in production, so that may become a buy opportunity for some, I sold mine for now as it dropped.
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Finally, FSM caught my eye.
1. Strong rally of over 100% early last year.
2. a LONG consolidation and we are at the lows now.
3. Up 7% yesterday, when Silver was up slightly. What will happen when Silver flies?
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So the General Markets have a swing low, but it is not confirmed yet and we did see an odd slam down for no apparent reason, so we’ll have to see if the General Markets can run higher after the CPI numbers. Gold and Silver were up a little yesterday, but the Miners really shined, so the basket of miners that I recommended buying last week is starting to shine too. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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.BITCOIN dropped on day 70 and put in a reversal last year at this time. This was only a midpoint consolidation and after 10-15 days at these lows, it took off like a rocket.
This week Bitcoin dropped on day 70 too and put in a reversal. This matched the midpoint pattern above, so I have pointed that out. THIS would now be day 2.
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Crypto stocks are acting ‘o.k.’, but earlier in this report I pointed out a concern. I just wanted to make you aware of the fact that Crypto stocks followed the general markets drop yesterday and did not recover the highs like Bitcoin. Bitcoin held up well, crypto stocks dropped with the general markets. That may be important going forward as we decide whether ot not to hold Crypto stocks, Crypto ETFS, or both.
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RIOT – This is actually a good chart, because when Bitcoin was at the day 70 lows, Riot put in a higher low. That is bullish. It is also above the 50 & 200sma, so that looks bullish, but it also crashed down when the General Markets sold off yesterday. That caused it to put in a doji yesterday when Bitcoin closed at the highs. I just want to make sure that these stocks don’t drop if the general markets do drop and put in an ICL soon.
