Friday Jan 3 – Let’s Talk About Bulls
Today I want to discuss the Bulls in the General Markets and the Bull in Gold and Silver. I am thinking that 2025 could be ‘special’ for Silver and Silver stocks, so I will cover that more as we go forward and likely it will be discussed even more in the weekend report.
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SPX – The general markets are due for a dcl, and as you can see, the first daily cycle lasted 41 days long and the second only 32 days long. We are currently on day 31 so we could bounce at any time or drop further to find that dcl. If we bottom here as a dcl around day 32 or so…
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If we bottom here, it is not enough to give us an ICL drop so we would have 1 more daily cycle bouncing lower, or it is just a bounce and we drop into day 40+. THIS WILL GIVE US A NICE BUYING OPPORTUNITY, like we saw in August. Lets discuss that…
AAPL dropped into that August ICL and if you bought it around $200-$210, it ran to $260 (but it was very choppy for a few months, because it rallied before that May to July too).
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I traded AAOI (small positions unfortunately) and I like that strength that it had, so I’m keeping an eye on it during the ICL drop. So far we have a choppy topping area, and it dropped from $45 to $32 already, but how much will it sell off? We won’t know until we get to the ICL. It could form a large inverse H&S.
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AMZN is actually just forming a bullish looking wedge as we drop into a dcl. That COULD break down if the markets sell off into an ICL though, it certainly did with that ICL drop in August, right? I even discussed buy & hold of GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, NFLX, etc at that time, but ICLs are scary and hard to buy and hold until they prove themselves. That is why I am discussing it often now—to prepare us for possibly a sharp dip and ICL buy opportunity shortly after.
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RKLB – Look at this little rocket = Rocket Lab.
This was just steadily chopping higher August to October, and it chopped from $4 to $10. Then it really took off higher in November $10 to $28, so we have $4 to $28 out of the ICL. Buying in September with a dip to the 50sma would have been great.
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SOFI dropped to $6 in August, chopped around in that first daily cycle, then ramped up in October too. It held that 20 ema (green line) until recently, so now we’ll see how it acts or how deep it goes during an ICL drop. Currently it looks like a ‘h & s’ pattern. Could this drop to the 200sma? It doesn’t seem so, right?…
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Could this drop to the 200sma? It doesn’t seem so, but over time this could drop to $12 or $10 and then curl back up. It would likely get choppy out of the ICL, but that’s what it did in August too, and then the 2nd daily cycle stabilized and took off higher.
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So I have a good list of stocks that have either done well over long periods of time (GOOG, NVDA, AAPL, NFLX, etc) and some that became recent big %-Gainers and I will track them as we drop to see where they are at the next ICL.
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THE USD is not rolling over after that 2nd daily cycle. It gained strength and now looks set to run to the former highs of 2022, but this has NOT been negatively affecting Gold. In fact, Gold was up too…
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GOLD moved up almost $30 and ran up to the 50sma. We have been viewing Gold as having put in an ICL in November and possibly a short first daily cycle with a dcl around day 24. Let’s briefly discuss that…
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GOLD
We have been viewing Gold as having put in an ICL in November, because it made a day 19 high. Immediately that made me think that this is going to be R.T. and we have an ICL that is a bit of an anomaly. Now it seems that we have a shorter first daily cycle with a dcl around day 24, because it closed above the 10sma for 2 days. This is a bullish set up and Gold stocks finally reacted.
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SILVER jumped and tried to close above the 10sma too. It also lost and is trying to recover that blue 200sma, so that would be a shakeout / stop run. Was this drop from October highs to the recent lows an a-b-c drop into an ICL, or do we need 1 more daily cycle. Time will tell, but Silver stocks did great yesterday, so you would buy with a stop. The good news is…
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The good news is: The Miners didn’t seem to believe that Gold had an ICL and they actually made NEW LOWS after Golds ICL. That means we didn’t miss a big rally, miners are at the lows.
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GDX could also be giving us a shakeout move at the 200sma. In recent reports I pointed out the MACD divergence at the new lows. GDX is quite oversold and THIS does look like an ICL type of a selloff. An eventual rally back to the highs and then more would give good gains, especially in some of the individual miners.
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I went through a number of Miners and with that STEEP DEEP sell off in GDX, and we still have our leaders that held up well with the selling. Take a look at …
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IAG is actually still putting in higher lows. No doubt that it was very choppy and would have been hard to ride, but the ‘buy’ in August would still have solid gains. If you sold your miners (like I did) you can just buy it back as it regains that 50sma.
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KGC – Gold stocks were not running higher with a Gold ICL, but they seem to believe it now.
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BTG – Even the smaller miners like BTG, NGD,MUX, NG, etc perked up in a nice way.
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AG is at the recent lows and it jumped 8% yesterday. Go back and look at Silver and you’ll see that yesterdays move didn’t look very different from other moves, but Silver stocks did react as though it is. Take a look at the September October run….
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AG (Same Chart): Take a look at the September – October rally. That was almost 100% in 2 months, but it was VERY choppy for 3-4 weeks at the 200sma too, so most of the gains were made with those big % moves. That is good to take note of if these get choppy near resistance/support.
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CDE lost and regained the rising 200sma. In 2024 CDE ran from $2.5 to $7.5+. These were very choppy, but I think that 2025 will be where Silver makes a strong break and if so? Silver stocks can double , triple, etc. I’ll discuss that shortly.
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EXK pretty much tripled last March to July. It dropped in the ICL drop and then doubled August to October. THAT makes me want to buy and hold EXK, even though it can be rough and choppy. I see a Bull wedge right now. Next, I want to show you something…
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Next, I want to show you something. We know that Gold broke to new highs and rallied strongly in 2024, but Silver remained choppy. I think that Silver could have a very strong year in 2025 and what does that mean for these choppy silver stocks that already doubled, but were very choppy? Let’s go back to ‘AG’…
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Let’s go back to ‘AG’. We’ve already seen in 2024 that AG, EXK, HL, PAAS, MAG, etc etc were very choppy, but still made good gains. Here we saw that AG almost doubled from September to October, however…
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AG almost doubled from September to October, however these look to be building large bases for what could be a spectacular run in 2025, if Silver decides to run back to that $50 area and more. Buying AG here at $4, $5, $6 in that base could give great gains if its at $20 again next summer. Will it be choppy and hard to hold? Most likely, but we learned from KGC, IAG, AU, AEM, etc that the basket of buy and hold gains can add up over time.
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We learned from IAG, KGC, AU, AEM, etc that the basket of ‘buy and hold’ gains out of their bases last year did add up over time. Choppy and difficult in some months, but the bull was on the run.
Bitcoin is discussed below. I’ll be gone from 7:45 a.m. to maybe 10:30 a.m., but should be around late morning & the afternoon in the commenting area. Enjoy your Friday trading!!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I WROTE:
BITCOIN has a day 56 low and it broke the downtrend, so I would say that the lows are in on day 56 and Bitcoin should be ready to push higher (unless it gets choppy). Now we’ll see if the crypto stocks follow, because they have been beaten down.
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BITCOIN looks like a choppy H&S or a rounding top, but using cycles, it really should push higher. The crypto stocks did not fully follow it (yet). They were up 3-6%, but some rallied at the open up 13% and then sold iff to ‘up 5%’, so we’ll have to see how they do over time.
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BITCOIN – Instead of a rounding top, I see a bullish wedge. Bitcoin is breaking out and could continue higher, but if it does dip and back test this breakout, it will be helpful to see what HUT, WULF, CIFR, MARA< RIOT, BTBT, MSTR, etc do then.
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BITCOIN live on Friday at 6:30 a.m. ET
