December 24th – Half Day of Trading
Today is a half day of trading in the U.S., and tomorrow the markets are closed for Christmas, so this report will be a review with a few additional thoughts.
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SPX – With Mondays follow through to the reversal, it looks like we have the half cycle low of the 3rd daily cycle in place at this point. The Markets can move back to the highs.
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Even The SOXX had a nice day, so this is likely to get back to the blue 200sma, but it should be too weak to get back above it.
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A SIDE THOUGHT: When we have a strong bull, I like to write down a list of leaders or stronger runners for the next ICL. A 3rd daily cycle can peak and begin the dip into a healthy correction and then you want to buy that ICL. Please read the RKLB chart.
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RKLB – With a multiweek correction into an ICL, you may gradually see an Inverse H&S form on many stocks.
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AAOI is one that I have traded as it ran from the $7 area to $45 since August. It started its correction recently and it dropped to the 34 sma. This is a good one to find at an ICL and see where it landed. It may just put in a box consolidation up at this level.
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RBOT ran $5 to almost $20 and then dropped to $12. This actually becomes a buy at support at the half cycle low, and then when an ICL comes, we can look and see where this ended up. The ‘Robotics’ stocks had a great run in 2024.
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RR – This doesn’t look like a big move yet—but it was. This pop for yesterday alone was 54%! I’m pointing it out as a buy the dip and massive base that is starting to form the right side.
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SERV is a robotics stock too, and yesterday it dipped down and recovered. This ran from $8 to $18 recently. If you look at the price range in the recent chop, this would be very hard to ride, but it is making good gains.
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Yesterday I saw Mark M’s former mention ENVX rising up for a possible break out, so I pointed it out. It then pulled back to $10, but this may be building energy to run higher. It is a bullish set up.
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I also pointed out that our buy from November, FCEL is another buy or ‘add’ as it reversed at the 50sma. It closed up over 7%. It can run further.
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Keeping track of RKLB, SOFI, LMND, etc (leaders) is the same thing that you saw me do with the Gold bull run. I was constantly buying, trading, and including in the reports the leaders like HMY, KGC, EGO, AEM, AU, OR, IAG, and so on. Right now, the General Markets are coming out of a half cycle low and can run higher into the end of the year. When we finally come due for a dip, which could come with new year selling (some wait to cash in gains to avoid paying taxes on them for another year) some great buying opportunities will develop. I’ll be monitoring this area.
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GOLD has an unconfirmed swing low at day 24. The 10sma and 50sma will be resistance overhead.
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SILVER has 4 clear daily cycles and is back testing a trendline. Do we see a 5th daily cycle or is this an ICL as an A-B-C down? Time will tell, you can buy these reversals at the lows and use a stop if you wish. I’ll discuss miners below.
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GDX could recover from here and if it did, it would be a shake out for the pure ‘technical’ traders, because they would have bought or added to GDX at the 200sma in November, and now they’d be stopped out.
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I just wanted to point out that many Miners are still at their recent lows, so we haven’t missed getting into Miners before they rally higher. That said, most of those strong leaders that we’ve followed are actually in a sideways consolidation, but holding up rather well. Let’s take a quick look…
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EGO and some of the other Miners have chopped sideways for months. A long consolidation at the highs can lead to a great run later. EGO could be a shake out here if we have an ICL, but it needs to recover soon to have a shake out.
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HMY has also chopped sideways for 8 months! It has had rallies, but they have been selling off. This does look like the buy area of support in this consolidation, but it actually hit a new recent low Monday.
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Even if KGC had a H&S pattern that plays out, the drop isn’t measured as very deep. We could see a drop and a break of the 200sma at the ICL.
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So I just wanted to point out a couple of ideas there.
1. One is that the General Markets look like they’ll bounce into the end of the year out of the half cycle low (that was being questioned after that Fed reaction to less rate cuts). After the 3rd daily cycle peaks, I’d expect a dip into a dcl and eventually an ICL. THAT SHOULD OFFER GOOD ENTRIES FOR BUY & HOLD.
2. The second idea is that Miners have held up well, many are in a long consolidation, but hopefully that changes after this ICL and they break and run to new highs.
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Have a good trading day, I will be away today. If you are traveling for the holidays – safe travels, and enjoy your time spent with your families, if you’re able to spend time with together!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN : When I look at Bitcoin near recent lows here, 2 things come to my mind:
1. Bitcoin just had a tremendous run from $50,000 to $108,000. It has ‘peaked’ or pulled back a little earlier than I would have expected, since I watch for a day 60 dcl. I’ve seen Bitcoin run higher into day 56 and then dip down, but after that strong run, some profit taking or selling seems to have taken over. This may become choppy.
2. The Miners were signaling this too, because with that last push higher into day 43, the majority of the Miners did not follow.
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So Bitcoin may bottom earlier than day 60 or just continue to chop at the lows for several more days (Reminder: Bitcoin has no holidays or weekends, so the count continues quickly). A low is due 10 days from now.
