December 22nd Weekend Report
Note: The markets will open with a half day on Tuesday and they’re closed on Wednesday.
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Just for the purpose of cycle counts, I mentioned that We were on day 22 of the 3rd daily cycle on Wednesday with that Fed Sell off. That is timing for a half cycle low. So this means that we would be on day 24 Friday.
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SPX – So you can see the half cycle lows looks to be in place with Fridays reversal at day 24. The SPX almost regained the 50sma and I would think that this should be able to push higher during the holiday shortened Christmas week.
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THE SPX WEEKLY has bounced along the green 20 week ma and it reversed above that on Friday too.
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THE NASDAQ WEEKLY climbs along the 10 week ma during the bull run, and that is actually where it reversed on Friday. So the SPX and NASDAQ look to have bullish reversals and it would appear that they’ll push higher this week. What about that SOXX?
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THE SOXX has not turned bullish as of Friday. It was rejected at the red 30 week ma and sold off, remaining down near the lows at this point. If the SPX & NASDAQ push higher this week, then the SOXX may just chop sideways until it is time for that dip into the dcl.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil continues to chop sideways week after week…
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WTIC – In the bigger picture we still have that break down and a back test of the red 30 week ma. Since that time about 11-12 weeks ago, Oil has just chopped sideways and the more time that it eats up time this way, the closer we will be coming due for the next drop into a dcl. That has me thinking that Oil will be going lower later, even if it tags the red line with a pop one more time first.
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Last week we discussed the bear flag on a daily chart and this week the XOP really sold off. It was actually down by over 7%. If Oil sells off later, The XOP may break down and sell off after losing this support.
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THE USD has a small pop and drop candle for the week. That means that this is in the 3rd daily cycle and it didn’t close at the highs this week, so when it is ready to start dropping lower it may help Gold to run higher.
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THE USD Daily Some time ago I pointed out that I thought the USD would run to the $107.50 area and double top with the 3rd daily cycle and then roll over. It ran to $108, but it is forming that double top, so it may still peak here as Gold bottomed out.
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Last week I discussed the GOLD cycle count, and mentioned that:
1. We have a day 19 peak after that sharp selloff in November.
2. Since it is now looking to be a R.T. daily cycle, I have also been saying that this could indicate that we have the ICL already in place.
3. If we do have an ICL in place, then the lows should not be broken this week. IN ADDITION TO THIS…
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We now see a swing low after Fridays move higher. We have been getting shorter daily cycles with the bull run, since Buyers step in and buy that dip, so this may be the dcl and the start of daily cycle number 2. The good news is that if that is the case, Miners are still right at the recent lows.
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GOLD WEEKLY – So using this weekly chart I just wanted to point out that we possibly have an ICL in place, and I wanted to also show you that past ICLs were rather quick drops and rather mild too. They are similar to what we have now.
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SILVER WEEKLY– Silver dropped to a trendline that it had already back-tested, but it had time to back-test it again. This might be all we get to the downside too, because Silver formed a small swing low on Friday too. So we may have the lows in with Gold and Silver. One problem may be that the weekly stochastics does NOT look oversold enough on Silver. IF WE DROP FURTHER…
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SILVER WEEKLY– We probably will not get much more downside after a bounce. It may look like this.
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GDX WEEKLY– GDX broke to new lows this week and was actually down 5%, but this is good because of we have a low in place for Gold and Silver, that means that we did not miss anything when it comes to Miners. So let’s look at the Daily.
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GDX – I PUT THIS IN FRIDAYS REPORT: We have had SHORT daily cycles.
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I just wanted to show when The GDX had dcls:
1. The first dcl was at day 23
2. The second daily cycle was also at day 23
3. The third dcl was at day 26
4. We are currently at day 24, so a DCL can form at any day, but GDX can drop further.
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GDX DAILY– So GDX bounced Friday and now we have a day 24 low in place. From the above analysis we learned that the last Daily Cycles were mostly 23 day daily cycles. This could be THE LOW. You could enter with a tight stop or wait for the confirmed swing low with a close above the 10 sma.
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I hope that you all had a good weekend and thanks for your patience with this report being released on Sunday evening. I was busy with family, and we had several things to discuss and take care of. This is a holiday shortened week of trading, and the Markets often do move higher with a lack of sellers, so hopefully that is what we find this week. Fridays price action looking good in many stocks like AAOI, BBAI, RGTI, FCEL, SERV, IONQ, etc etc. Bitcoin will be discussed below and we’ll see you on Monday morning in the commenting section. Have a great Sunday night!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN dropped sharply toward the last part of the week so we made new all-time highs and sold off. I wrote on Friday…
BITCOIN was really liking the rate cut environment too, but it doesn’t seem to be doing well after the Wednesday Fed Mtg either. The RSI and MACD have already weakened considerably over the past 2 days. Since we are rather early in a 60 day period of time, this could have 10-15 more days of uncertainty – weakness – choppiness.
So Friday was day 46 and we sold off after the Fed, and that gave us this large red candle for the week. As mentioned, we could have one more rally or choppiness as we approach a day 60 time period, but with this weekly drop, anything could happen. We could rally for the week and then enter the time when a day 60 low would be due, or just keep drifting lower & stay choppy.
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If Friday was day 46, then this is now day 48 on Sunday.
Again, we DO have time to rally one more time, but Bitcoin did NOT like that Fed Mtg & the discussion of less rate cuts. Let’s see how this plays out this week, now that that idea has been digested.
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BITCOINWEEKLY” looking at a weekly chart, Bitcoin could become choppy and drift lower over time, with a drop into that day 60 dcl over the next 2 weeks and then rally again too.
