December Friday The13th

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YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED THE CHOP & DIP UP NEAR DAY 15 (like a half cycle dip). I said…

THE SPX turned up on Wednesday and we may have an early 1/2 cycle dip if the jobless claims doesn’t send the markets lower. In prior daily cycles, the markets got choppy around day 15.

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SPX – The general markets had the opposite reaction to the PPI numbers & jobless claims, by selling off and closing near the lows. The big picture, however, is just more choppiness up near day 15 and we could get that half cycle dip.

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If that is just a midpoint or half cycle dip, then The SOXX can still make a run for the 50sma & downtrend line.

 

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WTIC – More sideways chop with Oil.

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XOP – That first daily cycle was 37 days long, so if this one is going to be nearly that long, then this should be a bear flag on day 28.

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GOLD actually made a slightly higher high with day 20 surpassing day 7. That really makes this look like an ICL, even though it sold off. Today is day 21.

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SILVER dropped 4%!  If you look at the candles on this chart of Silver, you do see other sharp 1 day drops though, so we’ll see if this has follow-through or not.

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THE GDX was rejected right at the 50sma. That was day 18 out of the low and likely makes this a choppy first daily cycle, because it looks R.T.

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I actually bought AG on Wednesday with a stop at the 200sma, and I was stopped out for a loss while I was away yesterday.

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The markets haven’t changed very much, but Gold acting as strongly as it has does make it appear that we have a choppy first daily cycle in play.   What to do now, right?  Well, I have been saying all along that Gold could chop and drop into the Fed Mtg (give or take a day or 2) and give us a dcl (I said ICL) around that time. That drop into the Fed Mtg is still true, but now we have to see if it will break the lows to give us an ICL like I have been thinking it would? It won’t if an ICL is already in place, so at this point with Gold on day 21, we could just watch and see how it acts next week as it gets closer to the Fed Mtg. We HAVE been seeing shorter ’25 day daily cycles’, so that still lines up with a low next week, it’s just a matter of ‘how low?’

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 Sidenote: Yesterday I was called away all day, and I will need to be away all day today too. I was completely away from the screens and the volatility with what I was holding was brutal, so yesterday was a loss for me when I finally made it back home. I was trading in the morning until 10:15 or so, and I had added to my FCEL after the open, and with Bitcoin looking to break higher, I added to IREN, HUT, and WULF. I also owned Miners from Wednesday, like AG & IAG. I owned NNE too.  Then I got called away.  When I came home at night, I looked at those crypto stocks and the intraday charts were horrible! FCEL rallied in the morning and sold off all day, so my new addition ended up down almost $1/share. In at roughly $13 with a new addition, closed near$12 🙁

My position in NNE also popped and dropped, so I left nicely in the green after 10 am and came back deep in the red with all new positions.  It was a choppy day. The Crypto stocks rallied sharply, dropped sharply, rallied sharply, dropped sharply, and by the close I was down in the positions that I added there too, so knowing that I’d be away today, I sold those in after hrs for a loss.  I am simply telling you the above just in case you had a similar choppy ‘pop & drop’ kind of a day, you were not alone. Gold and Silver may be close to the timing for a dcl next week, so the Miners didn’t have the follow through that I had been expecting for at least a few days.

 The General Markets dipped, but there are still good bullish stocks there, from earlier reports. EXFY,  SMR, NNE, IONQ, CVNA, and a few others seem to be near support. Others that may need a pullback at the next DCL, like SSYS, FCEL, AMZN, DDOG, CRM,  AAOI (AAOI has actually pulled back), etc. A general Market half cycle dip here or the dcl may offer short term buys.

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EXFY was a buy weeks ago and has been steadily running along the 8 ema, but when we get a dip into a dcl for the general markets, this could become a buy again. It should be on a watchlist.

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ALSO the ‘AI’ stocks that rallied very strongly have now pulled back too, but is it enough?

  AI, BBAI, SOUN, GFAI – all pulled back, but will need reversals as a buy trigger, especially if the markets are still dipping into a half cycle low.  These may or may not push higher until that is complete?

 

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Enjoy your Friday trading.

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~ALEX

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 The count for Bitcoin is very hard to pinpoint: So I have discussed that Bitcoin looks bullish, but crypto stocks are choppy.  Wednesday I even said that I’d like to see a new low. I said…

I’d love to see a new low below that day 47 area this week. If we get that and then a reversal higher, maybe the Crypto stocks will join in the move, but right now Bitcoin looks like it should drop, yet it looks like it has buying preventing it.

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BITCOIN did not drop, it has been chopping higher, but that MACD is still dropping and makes this look like it will drop too. That said, this also strongly resembles a ‘running correction’, and they often burst higher before dropping back. Crypto stocks are choppy and difficult, unless you did a buy and hold and closed your eyes, because the gains from Sept/October have been over 100% in some of them.