Tuesday December 10th
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SPX – The markets can continue to push higher, they do have time. I wanted to point out that the last couple of daily cycles started to dip or chop around day 15 and fell into sort of a half cycle low at that point. They then made a new high in the same daily cycle and a milder dip after that. That happened in the first and 2nd daily cycle, so it may happen here in the 3rd.
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And the SOXX is not likely to break above the 50 & 200sma in this 3rd daily cycle, but it could tag that area with the trend line before a 3rd daily cycle ‘peak’ is formed.
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WTIC – Oil has been chopping sideways at the lows and this should be day 14 of the second daily cycle. In the weekend report I pointed out a ‘back test’ that took place and then Price dropped. Then I mentioned the dangers of this chopping sideways all through the 2nd daily cycle and THEN dropping lower in the 3rd daily cycle.
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THIS GETS A LITTLE CONFUSING: It looked as though Gold & Silver wanted to give up on a ‘normal’ looking ICL drop and just run higher from here as though we already have an ICL in place. Let’s take a look.
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GOLD – That 4th daily cycle drop looked like an ICL drop, but it wasn’t L.T., so we have been waiting for the next drop. Yesterday Gold popped and threatened to become a R.T. Daily Cycle and started to look bullish. I’d like to see Gold remain lower than that day 7 pop & drop to stay L.T.
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SILVER is really confusing! All of the Silver stocks popped up over 10% and then dropped, but Silver became R.T. and closed well above the 50sma. I have been saying that Silver looks bullish, but it DID break below the last daily cycle low. This would be very hard to believe, but…
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This would be very hard to believe, but ..
1. We had a L.T. 3rd daily cycle that peaked on day 10 of 27.
2. Now we have a day 16 peak so far, that could become R.T.?
3. Was that steep sell off a 3rd daily cycle ICL? Stay tuned and stay frosty, it very well may be. The good news is that Silver stocks Popped and dropped, so they aren’t running away (yet). I’ll show that below.
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GDX – Miners, including Silver stocks, did a pop and drop (I just noticed ‘Pop 7 Drop’, I obviously missed the Caps key). I have mentioned several times that the GDX looks like an ICL drop to the 200sma, so…
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I have mentioned several times that the GDX looks like an ICL drop to the 200sma, so I was just expecting a small undercut to give us an a-b-c and I drew it this way with the WEEKLY CHART.
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GDX WEEKLY – I would think that we get another drop to a new low that gives us an a-b-c down. Maybe down to support?
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GDX WEEKLY – now I honestly have to wonder if this was a 3rd daily cycle ICL drop. the GDX also peaked early on day 9 of day 26 during the 3rd daily cycle.
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EXK – As mentioned, many Silver stocks were up over 10% and then sold off, so they remain near the recent lows and if you do not own any (or a basket), it may be tempting to grab a small position, but that it up to you. This is quite confusing, I would have expected to see EXK at the 200sma next week pre-fed, but that may not happen.
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AG is at the 50 & 200sma. It was up big yesterday slicing right through that 50sma, but then it sold off. It still closed up 6.57% and though it looks like a H&S forming, Silver holds the key.
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Yesterday I mentioned that ENERGY stocks look to be turning bullish out of their bases (clean energy & some EV like WKHS, NIO, NKLA, etc).
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FCEL – We have already been in FCEL since $6, but it gained 16% in the morning and then dropped again to only ‘up 6.5%’, but this is still a good set up and is up 100% from our buy spot.
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LAC – The Lithium stocks that I have pointed out continue to consolidate. I owned LAC, but stopped out at the 200sma and I knew that I would be away from the screens last week. I may re-enter if it moves above the 200sma. I also like PLL…
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PLL was in past reports too, but it also just continued to chop sideways. The first leg up was roughly $6 to $15, so I’d like to ride the next leg up if it plays out as expected.
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PLUG popped after releasing earnings in November, then stalled at the 200sma, but it sliced right through it yesterday. That’s a nice 30+% move in a couple of days and the Clean Energy sector looks to be perking up…
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BLDP has had some large up days recently too and started to climb up and along the 10 ema with increasing volume.
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CHPT also popped on earnings and is continuing higher this week, above the 50sma.
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So we are seeing the Clean Energy sector perk up out of the lows and as they move out of their bases, they seem to be finding buyers. Take a look at CDXS, PLUG, FCEL, CHPT, BLNK, GTE, and a few others for charts with bases that seem to be perking up. Some of the EV charts and Chinese stocks are bullish too.
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WKHS, NIO, LX, YY, TIGR, PHUN, LU, DQ, etc are interesting, so I may cover these in future reports too. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is chopping along sideways and as it does, the Crypto stocks have pulled back and some dropped more than I would expect, so I wanted to look into this. For example, Bitcoin is still around $100,000, and yet..
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Bitcoin is still around $100,000, and yet a stock like RIOT dropped 13% yesterday? It was forming a bullish cup above the 20 ema and lost it, and many of the Crypto stocks dropped over 10%, so this is not healthy looking.
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So I went back to look at BITCOIN. It still looks a lot healthier than the stocks, but I did find one thing that may be something to keep an eye on.
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1. We had the ’30 day’ counts coming up short, with one at day 25 and the last one looking like day 22.
2. Normally I look for 60 day counts with a midpoint dip around day 30, so when I add those 2 shorter counts up,
3. I get (25 days + 22 days only equals 47 days) …NOT 60 days. So…
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25 days + 22 days = 47 days. So if I count it the way that I used to, and if I was looking for roughly a 60 day cycle low-to-low, we may be on day 61 today, and we COULD drop to a day 63 or 64 day low this week to around $90,000.
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