Wednesday December 4th
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SPX – Again, it appears that we do still have ‘time’ and room on the upside before this 3rd daily cycle could peak. Tuesday was only day 11.
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SOXX – Meanwhile the SOXX is approaching strong resistance and may become a ‘short’ candidate for any that would go short. Since it is only day 11 or 12…
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Since it is only day 11 or 12, it may tag that resistance area & buy some more time by bumping up and along the 50sma. That could make it difficult to time the short well.
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FROM YESTERDAY:
WTIC – Oil does seem to have put in a dcl at the day 49 area, since that is the correct time for Oils dcl. It does remain choppy at the lows, however.
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WTIC – Oil had a nice Pop yesterday and since I have mentioned that it likely has the dcl in place on day 49, that would now make this day 10 of the 3rd daily cycle.
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GOLD is on day 12 and has been chopping sideways at resistance so far, with a peak on day 7.
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SILVER chopped sideways for 2 weeks and it looks like it wants to tag the 50sma. If this was a 2nd daily cycle, I would buy it because it looks like it is churning along to break out above the 50sma, but we do see that this dcl made a lower low and broke below the last dcl, so this should eventually roll over and make another new low.
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GDX is also chopping sideways out of the last dcl. I had mentioned that you could buy that reversal at the 200sma and consider selling at the back test of the 50sma. It has struggled to get there, but it still can.
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Yesterday I closed with:
Stocks acting correctly were SMR, NNE, LTBR. As a reminder, We were also watching LAC, PLL, GFAI, FCEL, and watching for pull backs on AI stocks AI, BBAI, SOUN. BBAI actually took off higher early and climbed all day up 30%, so if you were in front of the screen, you may have caught some of that…
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CRM is a ‘buy and hold’ type stock that I have wanted to buy on a pull back. It is forming a triangle and may not pull bacl. I also love PLTR. …
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LAC is still valid, but it has been like watching paint dry. PLL is the same sector and is also stalling.
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SNAP was interesting. It got Crushed with the August earnings release, and then it Popped up 16% with the most recent release. It landed on the 50sma and is now breaking higher. I think that it wants to run back to $17, but yesterday was the buy. You could try a small position in case this was a break & run, or watch on a watchlist for a dip to the 10sma if we get one.
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If Bitcoin breaks out, Crypto stocks could run, and it looks like it may be ready to break out, so I’ll explain that below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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I discussed the BITCOIN cycle counts with this chart: I said, When we look at the cycle counts, you can see that they used to average around 30 & 60 days, but we had an early day 25 low. Now we have a day 22 low in place and it makes me wonder if we have 1 more quick dip ahead and then we run higher? The MACD didn’t look ready to move higher.
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I am sure that you will remember that several times when we were looking for a dcl in Gold, it formed in the apex of a triangle. When that triangle breaks higher, the lower price point in the apex of the triangle is where I start my new count, and with that low at day 22, we are now on day 30 (or day 1 with a day 29 low in the apex).
