Friday November 22nd
DATA – Inflation data will be released this morning.
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Right now the General Markets are still acting Bullishly, except for the SOXX. Individual stocks are also making gains, so things are bullish for now. We may even have a dcl in place, we’ll see if the Inflation DATA shakes things up.
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SPX – Yesterday the markets gapped open higher, then sold off and closed that gap, and rallied back up. I want to show you how that happened intraday, because it is important, especially when I recall that a dcl was coming due. That gap fill actually happened in the first 10 minutes & lasted for an hour….
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That gap fill actually happened in the first 10 minutes & lasted for an hour.
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The grey area is premarket, black area is trading hrs. You can see that the markets were up in premarket, and the data release held price at the highs. These were 10 minute bars, so look at that first 10 minute bar. Price crashed to a gap fill in 10 minutes. then it rallied in the next 10 minutes, then it sold off to even a lower low (So I went short with a stop, due to the SOXX). After an hour of that chop, it rallied back to the highs and my ‘short’ was stopped out. I went long several bullish stocks like OKLO, LTBR, SMR, LAC and was able to make some good gains actually, but this is a lesson on the importance of stops. The markets were not ready to sell off yet. Why?…
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SOXX – When I went short I grabbed SOXS as the SOXX sold off in 10 minutes too. You can see that it rallied back and then I remembered from my own report that these markets are likely due for a dcl. THIS MIGHT EVEN BECOME THE DCL, and then a roll over. LET ME REVIEW THAT WITH YOU…
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THIS MIGHT EVEN BECOME THE DCL, and then a roll over. LET ME REVIEW THAT WITH YOU WITH WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY…
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Thursdays report said that we are close to a dcl:
SOXX CYCLE COUNT– These markets form a daily cycle around day 35-45 or so, and I thought that maybe NVDA would form a dcl (and maybe it will, since the count is ready). My thinking is that when a dcl forms, the SOXX could bounce to the 200 or 50 sma …
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THIS IS NOT OFFICIALLY A DCL YET, but…
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My thinking is that when a dcl forms, the SOXX could then bounce to the 200 or 50 sma, and both are around 226. It then may become a good short candidate. (Note: I was early). A bounce can last for 2 weeks, so I will cover this in more detail if I see it playing out that way.
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So that was my mistake. When I saw that crash down after the markets gapped open, I went short thinking that we were about to see a sell off, forgetting that the dcl may already be in place. I think I’ll wait for that bounce next time 🙂 . I then flipped long with OKLO, NEE, LAC, etc…
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LAC #1 – I posted this at 11:30 a.m. as a bullish set up and also liked what I saw with other past performers that had consolidated. LAC was trying to overtake the 200 sma.
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LAC 2 – By midday it was up 6% and…
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LAC 3 – LAC closed above the 200sma. it CAN chop around and drop lower, but basically it is forming a bullish looking wedge and since it ran from $2 to $5, it has good risk/reward. This may continue higher.
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WTIC – Oil pushed higher and this week I mentioned that Oil could have a dcl at day 48. This would be day 3. 48 days is normal timing for Oil. The Oil stocks bottomed in September too, but did not return all the way back to the lows like Oil did. That hints at the idea that the first daily cycle in Oil is in place and retested the lows while Oil stocks held their gains. Oil can be bought using UCO or USO, XOP , XLE, Oil Stocks or GUSH trade long for Oil Stocks.
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Using this chart, I already discussed on November 18 that THE XOP was making higher lows and higher highs despite Oils sell off. Also mentioned was NOG, VET, MRO, VLO, etc. (USEG has doubled since Sept lows).
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XOP & GUSH formed a base when Oil returned to the lows. It broke to new 3 month highs yesterday, and if Oil has a dcl in place, Oil Stocks should continue higher.
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THE USD pushed higher to the $107 area. This 2 day push higher did NOT hinder Golds current move higher out of the DCL.
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GOLD – I’ll be truthful, Gold makes me nervous. Silver has been choppy and GDX has been choppy, but Gold at new all-time highs gave us a Very Strong Bull Run with ‘surprises to the upside’. I can picture a V-Bottom forming.
In my analysis I have said this: Golds sell off (& GDX sell off) looks like an ICL sell off, but I do have to expect 1 more daily cycle lower, since Gold was R.T.
Gold is at the downtrend line and 50sma. My fear with Gold is that this could just put in a V-Bottom with an ICL, despite a R.T. Daily cycle. Anomalies do happen from time to time.
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GOLD is 5 days out of the lows and here I am using the 34 sma. Gold broke the downtrend, that could encourage buyers. How high might this go?…
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It looks like GOLD could run as high as to the $2750 area as a back test of that uptrend line. That is a big bounce, but it is easily possible with Golds bullish price action.
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UPDATE: Gold is at $2708 at 6 a.m.
GOLD is really pushing higher quickly, and here on Friday morning we are back above the $2700 area. I expected a run to $2750 in maybe 10 days, but here we are quickly trying to recover. SILVER & THE GDX DID NOT LOOK THIS GOOD, so let’s just take a look there too.
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SILVER actually dropped or paused on Wednesday and Thursday. It is not putting in a V-bottom looking recovery like Gold is, so with this more normal price action, we still seem to have the ICL ahead of us. Gold just needs to slow down a bit!
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THE GDX was a possible buy for a trade at the 200sma reversal, but I wasn’t expecting much more than a run to the blue uptrend line. That would put it just under $40 or so.
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SILVER IS NOT AS BULLISH OUT OF THE LOWS AS GOLD IS THIS MORNING:
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We looked at Gold at 6 a.m. this morning and it seemed to be surging surprisingly higher, so I decided to show you Silver at 6 a.m. too. It still looks normal and the push higher this morning does not look out of the ordinary, and this is not a V-Bottom, so at this point we are still anticipating an ICL in December. 
Stay Frosty though!! 🙂
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Lets see what today brings our way, enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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WENESDAY I DISCUSSED THE BITCOIN DAILY CYCLE COUNT WHEN I SAID:
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BITCOIN – On day 16 of a possible 30 day cycle count, Bitcoin slowly pushes higher and this honestly looks very good or bullish, but the crypto stocks need to play catch up. Most Crypto stocks seem to be in more of a consolidation phase as they chop around daily, but they are not alt new highs like Bitcoin. MSTR is a leader and CORZ, HUT, and a few others do look good, but most are not at new highs like Bitcoin, and that is a bit disappointing. The ETFs are steadier.
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BITCOIN has now hit a high of $99,500! Crypto stocks are not following anymore, so the Crypto Stocks out performed in the beginning of the run, but the ETFs have tracked bitcoin itself.
It is possible that the crypto stocks are predicting that Bitcoin may pull back after tagging $100,000. If it doesn’t pull back and runs straight to $110,000 or $120,000, then we’ll just have to wait and see what individual stocks do at that time. Even MSTR seems to be finishing off its massive run.
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With Bitcoin at all-time highs, MSTR dropped from $543 to $371. This is why I often warn about chasing these awesome runs. You do NOT want to buy a parabolic move late in the rally.
