Thursday November 21st – Swing Lows
DATA – NVDA released earnings last night and the Markets were waiting for that with great anticipation. After hrs, NVDA dropped about 2% (that isn’t bad). Add that to the Jobless Claims and we could see the markets affected one way or the other. Now to the charts…
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As a note: The General Markets are within the timing for a dcl, but one more quick drop could come first before we get a swing low.
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THE SPX (& NASDAQ) look fine and are acting correctly, they even look bullish in their 2nd daily cycle, HOWEVER…the action with semiconductors needs to be kept in the back of our minds. The SOXX is bearish.
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I was interested in seeing if NVDA could rally strongly out of the earnings report and somehow prop up and help the SOXX and giving us a dcl here, but I have serious doubts about how long a rally would last after seeing what the SOXX did yesterday.
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THE SOXX actually made new lows yesterday before bouncing back. It can bounce around now, and it can hang on with the SPX and NASDAQ looking decent, but…
1. It has failed, and I have to believe that this is going to roll over sooner or later.
2. I see a H&S forming too, as mentioned in recent reports.
3. This is only the 2nd daily cycle, and the first and 2nd are stronger daily cycles, so the 3rd and 4th will likely crash down, and I don’t see how the General Markets will hold up with semiconductors failing.
SOXX CYCLE COUNT– These markets form a daily cycle around day 35-45 or so, and I thought that maybe NVDA would form a dcl (and maybe it will, since the count is ready). My thinking is that when a dcl forms, the SOXX could bounce to the 200 or 50 sma …
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THIS IS NOT OFFICIALLY A DCL YET, but…
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My thinking is that when a dcl forms, the SOXX could then bounce to the 200 or 50 sma, and both are around 226. It then may become a good short candidate. A bounce can last for 2 weeks, so I will cover this in more detail if I see it playing out that way.
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WTIC – Oil is within the timing for a dcl and it does have a swing low, so it may be in place right now, or one more quick drop could also give us that low. As mentioned in recent reports, the Oil Stocks ( XOP/XLE) are NOT following Oil lower-they became bullish with early November lows.
On November 18, THE XOP was reported by me as making higher lows and higher highs despite Oils sell off.
THE XOP again made higher highs yesterday as oil went red. The Oil stocks are bullish, especially since that Gap that came the day after the U.S. election. MRO, VLO, VENT, NOG, WTI, and others have been discussed.
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Nov 19: THE USD reached a resistance point and started to pull back. It is possible that this becomes the peak at resistance, but we may see a ‘topping process’ in this area that allows Gold to put in an ICL. Read the chart.
THE USD has been chopping slightly lower away from that resistance area. As the USD dropped, Gold popped…
GOLD has put in a swing low / dcl and is pushing higher. As mentioned before, you can buy this, but I have to expect that this will sell off again into a final low and an ICL that you really want to be ready to buy in December. All of the daily cycles out of that last ICL have been R.T., including this last one. That means that even though this looks like an ICL sell off, we may have 1 more drop after a bounce.
So this is a possible idea of what a weaker daily cycle might look like for GOLD. his is only 1 idea. Gold has been strong, so it may even push higher. DEC 17 is the next Fed Mtg. ICL?
SILVER may pop up to the green line, but I decided to just draw it as choppy and sideways before a drop comes about here too. DEC 17 is the next Fed Mtg.
Notice that The GDX reversed right at the 200sma with a swing low. On Nov 19 I said…
This really looks like an ICL drop to me, and it was L.T. with a peak on day 9 too, but with Gold and Silver R.T. and therefore not looking like an ICL, I have to expect a good bounce and then a little more selling for the Miners before the next rally takes place. Maybe we’ll just see a double bottom at the 200sma? I mentioned that you can buy the reversal at the 200sma, but use stops since we may see price come back down here.
If I draw The GDX with a channel like this for clarity, it gives us a possible target for what should be a bounce and then one final leg lower. The 50sma will be at that lower channel line when price gets there. Yesterday Gold was up, Miners were not.
The GDX : We saw an a-b-c style drop January into March of this year, so that can give you an idea of what we may see here into December. The Fed Mtg is Dec 17, so that may be when we see an ICL develop. 12
So if you bought the recent ICL in the General Markets or Precious Metals, you just want to use stops, mental stops, or some other way to protect gains. We have a good amount of data today and a dcl is actually coming due in the General Markets, so we can watch for that, with the SOXX in the back of our minds. We do have Bullish set ups in Oil & Oil stocks, especially since the US Elections results came out. Gold, Silver, and the Miners bottomed with a dcl and you could have bought GDX at the 200sma, but the rally may become L.T., making it short lived, so keep that in mind. Bitcoin continues its Bull Run, I’ll discuss that below. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED THE BITCOIN DAILY CYCLE COUNT WHEN I SAID:
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BITCOIN – On day 16 of a possible 30 day cycle count, Bitcoin slowly pushes higher and this honestly looks very good or bullish, but the crypto stocks need to play catch up. Most Crypto stocks seem to be in more of a consolidation phase as they chop around daily, but they are not alt new highs like Bitcoin. MSTR is a leader and CORZ, HUT, and a few others do look good, but most are not at new highs like Bitcoin, and that is a bit disappointing. The ETFs are steadier.
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BITCOIN – So this would be day 17 and at 5 a.m. Thursday morning we now see BITCOIN at $97,550! I felt that this run would get us to that $100,000 mark, and then MAYBE a pullback and continuation toward $120,000, but on day 17? It makes me wonder if it will or will not pull back at $100,000. It could stall and continue higher with this strength. The ETFs have been keeping up and doing well, I showed a list of those in yesterdays report.
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The ETFS are making steady gains, but several of the crypto stocks already made good gains, like HUT, WULF, and a few others and they closed red yesterday. That was disappointing. Here you can see that a ‘Buy & Hold’ for HUT at the 200sma has pretty much tripled, but it is now choppy at the highs. WULF has tripled too, but closed red yesterday also…
So many cryptos like RIOT, CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, etc are not reaching NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS with Bitcoin. That is disappointing and I don’t know if they will quickly play catch up or not.
This reminds me of Gold and Its miners when Gold broke from the giant Cup & Handle.
Gold made new all-time highs and SOME miners did very well, like HMY, EGO, IAG, KGC, but others like NG, NGD, BTG, etc took quite a while to get going and they were choppy and not at all-time highs. We just have to see how this plays out going forward, but I do expect Bitcoin $100,000 and then even $120,000+ – so the ETFS listed in recent reports have been steady, while the crypto stocks were rockets that may have temporarily burned out a little early.
This is an old screen shot, so the prices aren’t here anymore, but it gives you a list of ETfs.
