Thursday November 14th – What Happened?
Todays looks to be a Data-rich day. With this line up, I think that Precious Metals are possibly due for a low, and the General Markets are a bit puzzling, with SPX and NASDAQ Looking fine, but the SOXX almost breaking recent lows. And then there’s Bitcoin!…
If your trading Crypto stocks, then you know why I am about to say that yesterday was one of the most frustrating and disappointing days for that sector in a while. Bitcoin was a rocket, ripping higher to almost $94,000, but most crypto stocks popped, ran higher and sold off to red. Some were down 10%! So we’ll discuss that painful experience and more today too…
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SPX – There was no real change after yesterdays trading and CPI report, however…
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YESTERDAY I SAID: The SOXX should pick a direction soon.
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THE SOXX actually failed when it broke the dcl, but we haven’t seen follow through selling. I now see a choppy run that formed a triangle over time, and when triangles form and price nears the apex, we get a directional move. We will see what direction the semiconductors take very soon. I AM keeping an eye on the SOXX.
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So far, THE SOXX broke down and is threatening the lows again. That was after the CPI report, today is PPI & Jobless Claims. The SOXX is known to lead the markets, so we’ll see what happens here.
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WTIC – Oil has a reversal at day 47, and that is normal timing for Oils daily cycle. To be honest, I would normally expect the September lows to be broken, because this is L.T. and a first daily cycle is rarely, if ever, L.T. That said, Oil stocks look bullish…
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XOP – The Oil stocks are not at the lows like Oil is, they are more bullish, so Oil either has an ICL in place, or a quick slam down below Sept lows for Oil will give us an ICL, while the XOP simply dips and recovers.
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GOLD dropped further on day 24. Our daily cycles have been shorter in this bull run, so a dcl could form at any time. This is a failed daily cycle and an ICL could possibly form here or at the end of one more daily cycle. This is still R.T. until we reach day 28, so if a dcl forms, we likely have one more to go to get a L.T. Final daily cycle. Also Silver needs one more daily cycle so far too.
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SILVER is L.T. the last daily cycles were all bottomed around day 21, so we could get a dcl here soon too. This is only the 3rd daily cycle, so I do expect one more daily cycle.
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GDX has almost reached the 200sma, and that is where I thought that it might bottom for this daily cycle. Then we could see a bounce and a final daily cycle that slightly undercuts it as an ICL.
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We do have some market moving data today with the PPI (inflation) and Jobless Claims at 8:30 am. We also have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 3 p.m., so THAT could cause a change too. I found something that might be important to take note of with Bitcoin, so please read on. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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I was watching a bullish looking 2 hr chart for Bitcoin: Here at $85,000- $87,000 we had a bullish set up.
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Bitcoin: began to push higher at almost $89,000 and things looked quite good.
Bitcoin dipped back tot he 20 ema and then started to run. Here at almost $90,000 Crypto stocks were running higher. Things looked very good yesterday.
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Bitcoin really took off and here, at almost $91,000, you would expect Crypto stocks to rocket higher. They did, but then they started to sell off. I have seen them do that before, so I even added to my basket for a day trade yesterday.
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Bitcoin Daily: With Bitcoin now flying up to almost $92,000, you would think that Crypto Stocks would be flying to November highs, but they started to sell off and then they sold off QUICKLY.
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Bitcoin was flying, but take a look at RIOT at 2 p.m.: Down over 9%?? This just didn’t seem to make sense with Bitcoin at new all time highs and up over $5000 for the day.
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IREN: I understand that IREN just ran from $8 to $13 in 5 days, so it gave awesome gains last week, but… Bitcoin at all time highs near $94,000 and Iren drops 12%? Is it just a gap fill or is this something more?
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HUT: Hut just ran from the $10 buy at the 200sma to almost $30!! Can I really complain?? I’m going to anyway.
They released great earnings yesterday and started to run, so I added to my basket. It ran from my entry near $25.50 to over $28, but then chopped around and sold off to $24.34. This is with Bitcoin up over $5000 and at all new highs.
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IT WAS TIME TO DIG IN AND FIGURE THIS OUT!
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I DON’T KNOW IF THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING YESTERDAY, BUT YOU’LL NEVER GUESS WHAT I FOUND…
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LOOK AT THE BITCOIN EARLY 2024 RALLY:
We had a 2 part rally early this year. The most important thing for us to see here is that
1. The first leg started in January and peaked in February, and then it churned sideways.
2. The second leg Ran from the end of February and peaked in Mid-March, right? Peaked in mid March!
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Now look at the stocks during the 1st leg up in February and the 2nd leg up in March.
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HIVE: What happened to the 2nd leg up that peaked in mid March?? Scroll up to bitcoins chart again. That was a strong rally in March, but Hive peaked in Feb and then sold off in March. Puzzling, but it was not alone…
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IREN rallied from around $3 to $9 in February, but it also peaked on Feb 15. IREN then sold off for the entire Bitcoin rally into March!
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MARA also rallied sharply in February from $16 to $34, but it did a double top and actually peaked in February too. When Bitcoin rallied into mid march, MARA crashed back from $34 to $18.
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