Friday October 25th
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SPX – The data yesterday did not send the markets lower, so after Wednesdays fairly large drop, it is possible that we have a day 15 half cycle low.
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THE NASDAQ moved 138 points higher, after Tesla released a positive earnings report. I do still see a bearish rising wedge in these markets, so that needs to breakout to the upside or there is a danger of a sell off over time. If you were just riding this from the ICL, your stop could be the 50sma (and that is the lower edge of the wedge).
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The SOXX was saved from failing for now.
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WTIC – No surprise here, Oil tried to break above the 50sma again and was rejected for the 3rd day in a row. It is day 32 of 40-50, so this choppy drop is likely to continue.
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THE USD took a break and dropped on Thursday but keep an eye on the 8 ema. So far it has closely followed that line higher. Once that breaks, that tight rally will change character. The 8 ema is currently with the 200sma at 103.64 (but that 8 ema changes daily).
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YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED In part:
GOLD – I am expecting Gold to ‘peak’ as L.T., so a day 9 peak is quite possible, but in a bull market we could still get a ‘surprise to the upside, since this bull has been strong. It’s hard to know for sure, but noteworthy points are that there are divergences at new highs of the MACD & RSI and you could call this a bearish engulfing candle too. Things may get choppy from here.
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GOLD then bounced with the USD drop, but this could just be the start of that choppiness that we have seen as Gold puts in milder pullbacks. Why do I continue to feel that way? Because the GDX did NOT follow this bounce yesterday.
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SILVER also didn’t really bounce when the USD dropped. Silver may do a back test here and chop around. This is a day 11 peak so far.
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THIS IDEA WAS IN MY REPORT 2 DAYS AGO:
GDX- You can see that the USD drop and Golds Pop did not turn out bullishly for the Miners. I will obviously discuss things further in the weekend report, but so far the Miners have been bullishly running higher in this channel and basically bouncing off of the 50sma area after each drop. Interesting sidenote: …
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INTERESTING NOTE:
I was looking at the Aug 1 low as an ICL with Silver and if it is, this could be the 3rd small daily cycle peaking. These daily cycles would be roughly 23 days in length and when I first started trading Miners in 2000-2008, daily cycles WERE only 23-25 days on average. This was because buyers would step in much earlier, eager to buy the dips at support, and I see that here. We may see that after the next ICL too.
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I DO WANT TO MENTION that NEM and GORO released earnings and both were punished as investors ran to the exits. This may be a good reason that GDX dropped even though Gold rallied. This was ugly.
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So the set ups remain bullish (except for Oil), but even bull runs will have dips and choppy periods. I’ll discuss more in the weekend report and Bitcoin and crypto will be discussed below. Enjoy your Friday trading and enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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MIDDAY Wednesday I showed how Bitcoin has bounced at the 20 ema in prior Bull Runs, so as Bitcoin dropped in the morning, that was something to watch for. A possible bounce at the 20ema?
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Bitcoin did bounce at the 20 ema on Wednesday night and on Thursday it moved higher. Overnight it dipped lower, but has a small red candle and could go either way on Friday. The set up looks good though and this MIGHT be setting up to breakout too.
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Bitcoin could breakout at anytime, but we also know with the choppiness, Bitcoin could drop & chop further. I want to discuss this a bit further in the weekend report, but Bitcoin is currently near the highs, and I have said that a $70,000 print will be a decent visual move above the slanted upper trendline…
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This could still go either way, but that MACD is progressive. The slam down capitulation low in August started a series of higher lows with the macd and price, so it really does seem like Bitcoin is building the right side of the consolidation as bullish and it should just a matter of time before Bitcoin makes another run.
