Thursday October 24th
The Data for Thursday is capable of moving the markets up or down, and I wanted to include this Data Box because on Wednesday the markets started to sell off rather steadily until the end of the day when they finally bounced. With that, The SOXX ALMOST broke the dcl, and that could be taken as a warning sign, so let’s take a look…
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THE SPX sold off all morning and finally put in a bounce to give us this. This is considered a ‘Bearish Rising Wedge’, so I am starting to become cautious, but at the same time, this could be a half cycle dip too, on day 15. We need a rally soon.
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QQQ I just wanted to show you that this is what the QQQ looked like as it sold off rather relentlessly. We saw no real bounces until late in the day. This is a 4 day chart, each square represents a day, each candle is 10 minutes. That means that we are looking at Friday, Monday, Tuesday, and then Wednesdays sell off.
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So The NASDAQ sold off and then bounced into the close too. TSLA released earnings last night and popped 10% so maybe that will help the markets too? Again, this might just be a half cycle dip, but the real concern for me was THE SOXX though…
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THE SOXX is back at recent lows. It sold off and reached the dcl level, coming within pennies of breaking it, so THAT is worth watching tomorrow. We had a dcl at $222.33 on the red 50sma, and Wednesday The SOXX tagged the 200sma at $222.87. There is obviously weakness in the semiconductors and needs to be monitored.
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WTIC – Oil dropped at resistance on day 31, I am not trading Oil since it is just too choppy to enjoy.
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The USD rocket ship continued higher. Since it did not stall at the 200sma, I have drawn in the upper trendline, and maybe it will reverse there and start a dip into the dcl? Let’s step back and look at the bigger picture…
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USD – With this bigger picture chart here, I can point out to you that with several of the past straight up rallies (green arrows), the USD did follow that with a very choppy pullback. We may see that here after the ‘peak’ is in place and it dips into a dcl.
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GOLD – I am expecting Gold to ‘peak’ as L.T., so a day 9 peak is quite possible, but in a bull market we could still get a ‘surprise to the upside, since this bull has been strong. It’s hard to know for sure, but noteworthy points are that there are divergences at new highs of the MACD & RSI and you could call this a bearish engulfing candle too. Things may get choppy from here.
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FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT, WE DISCUSSED A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE WAYS TO SURMISE TARGETS FOR SILVER. A 5-WAVE MEASURE WAS THIS ONE…
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SILVER dropped rather sharply on Wednesday, so it is possible that the target of a 5-wave run was satisfied at $35. That said, I would also say that Silver seems too early to peak here if it just started a new daily cycle at the ‘4’ , so it may just back-test the breakout and try to get to a new peak later too.
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GDX – That was a very nice run off of the 50sma, next we’ll see if it holds support at the upper trendline, or will it break back into that channel.
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Thursdays reaction to the data at 8:30 a.m. seems important for the SOXX. Along with that is the fact that the USD has been racing straight up and could begin a dip at any time to start a drop into a dcl. What will Gold and Silver do then? And Bitcoin was interesting yesterday too, we’ll look at that below. So far the Bulls are still in control, enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I SAID ABOUT BITCOIN: With the 20 ema below price…
BITCOIN I have us on day 13 and under resistance of the upper trendline, so this could be setting up to breakout, and the crypto stocks reflect that idea. The blue line is the 20 ema…
MIDDAY I showed how Bitcoin has bounced at the 20 ema in prior Bull Runs, so as Bitcoin dropped in the morning, that was something to watch for. A possible bounce at the 20ema?
BITCOIN And then we got the reversal at the 20 ema area by the end of the day, and many Crypto stocks that were selling down started to bounce too. Thursday should give us the answer on Bitcoin.
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BITCOIN – With a bounce at the 20 ema, we are actually still quite close to the upper trendline, so if it can get running to the upside, we have the idea floating around that MAYBE Bitcoin has set itself up for the Breakout. Crypto Miners have been acting bullishly so far too.
