October 13 Weekend Report
We had endured some choppy, sloppy market conditions recently, when several sectors pulled back into our most recent lows (dcls). In a Bull Market though, following every sell off or correction, we should get buying opportunities and that is what we have had this week in the weekday reports. Now let’s review how things ended this week and also see if any new developments are taking shape (Crypto)?
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SPX DAILY – After the reversal and push above the 10sma, we see a back test of the breakout. Conclusion: The markets are set up to continue higher in the second daily cycle.
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SOXX WEEKLY – I am hoping that the Semiconductors will run up their all-time highs too, and have mentioned that in the reports (NVDA was a buy, MU & AMD should also be buys).
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I wanted to point out what I see with a former bull run in CRWD
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CRWD crashed, but it is starting to recover and could be bought when it recovered the 200sma (it can still be bought). The General Market ICL in August became the lows for CRWD too and it has been rising since the ICL. Now when I looked at the weekly chart I noticed…
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Now when I looked at the weekly chart I noticed that it had become very extended above the 200 week ma, and
1. It actually crashed back right to that 200 week ma support. It now regained the 50 week ma too, after dipping to the 10 week ma. Thats bullish.
2. And it also landed on the prior uptrend line. That is where it has been climbing from, since the ICL in August.
3. It was a major crash, cutting the $400 stock in half, but it seems to be back in favor with buyers.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil seems to have given us a shakeout from that triangle that I was tracking weeks ago. It is at resistance, but it can overcome that and as mentioned in the daily reports, the Oil Stocks do look bullish too. Please read the chart.
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USD WEEKLY -The USD has been running straight up out of an ICL, but that has NOT hurt Gold. So…
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I am not 100% sure if this will play out this way, however, at this point in time I would think that…
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USD WEEKLY – With a 2025 year of rate cuts supposedly coming up, I could see the USD putting in 2 upward daily cycles and then rolling over again for the next couple of daily cycles into an ICL eventually. Please read the chart too.
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In a Bull Market, like we have seen with the SPX for example, the Rallys often dip down along the 10 week ma (at dcls), and then eventually fall down to the ICL at the 30-week ma (maybe the 50-week ma).
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GOLD WEEKLY – This has been a very bullish run, along that 10-week ma for our dcls, but we do want to expect an eventual dip down into a dcl and then an ICL to the rising 30 week ma. That will be a huge buy opportunity. AND…
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And as a reminder, the current pattern for Gold is showing us that we may just have another mild choppy dip into the next ICL.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver has been rising out of an ICL that came into place more recently, so it really ought to be able to push higher from here. That said, it has been in this resistance area chopping around too, so it could remain a little choppy before breaking out. In the long run, Silver should pay off very nicely over time.
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GDX WEEKLY – A strong bull run often runs up along the 10 week ma, but we are currently ‘chopping’ along the 20 ema with wider swings. That could change at any time and last week we did get a reversal, so we’ll look to see if we can get some follow through next week.
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So things still remain bullish in the Big Picture for our trading/investing and I do feel that Bitcoin and the Crypto area should be set up as a bullish play too. I’ll discuss that below. Have a great Sunday and the markets are open on Monday in the U.S., even though The Banks, The Postal Service, etc are closed for the holiday). As always, thanks for being at Chartfreak with me! 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – As a review,
I have been looking for a day 60ish low for weeks.
1. When we got a low on day 59, I saw a reversal and swing low and thought that we likely now had that day 60sih low.
2. Fast forward a few days and the day 59 lows were taken out. I had already stated that if those lows were taken out, we are still due for that day 60ish low, so a breakdown should be short-lived.
3. Bitcoin only had a 1 day spike down, and now we have a day 66 low with a swing. I captured this chart on Friday. Saturday would be day 2 and Sunday day 3, so day 4 is Friday.
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As BITCOIN reversed on Friday, I noticed a difference between that move out of the lows on day 59 and now.
1. I would say that the day 59 rally chopped and meandered higher, right?
2. The day 66 reversal rallies straight up in more of an impulsive wave. This looks quite bullish and…
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And if that was wave 1 out of the lows for BITCOIN, than ‘What if’ we get a dip to a low as wave 2, and then a wave 3 impulsive wave too? I don’t want to be on the sidelines. I also do like the way the Crypto stocks set up…
Just like CIFR below, I am seeing on many of these crypto stocks a higher low (often right at support), and a nice reversal on Friday. CIFR ran up 14% off of the 50sma and sliced through the 200sma. IF we get a wave 3 up in Bitcoin, these can now run higher.
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HUT reversed at the 200sma and 50 sma. This also looks like an inverse H&S. And what happened in June when HUT reversed at the 10sma off of the 50sma? It ran from $10 to $21. This is oversold and can be bought with a stop.
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RIOT dropped to the 10 & 50sma on Thursday and rallied off of that area on Friday with the Bitcoin day 66 swing low. That was a nice 8% gain and this can rally further if Bitcoin runs too. The MACD is bullish and it also could be an inverse H&S. This sector may be ready to run since several of these stocks are now already making higher lows & a higher high.
