September 29th Weekend Report
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DJIA – The Dow has been quite strong, since it broke to a new all-time high by day 15-19, dipped to a half cycle low and then went on to rally into day 38 this week. This also MIGHT be a short first daily cycle with a low at 26 and now a 2nd daily cycle, but usually these daily cycles last around 40 days. It is due for a dip into a dcl and that dip is a buy (It may or may not reach the 50sma). This may be a ‘down’ week for the General Markets.
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THE SPX could also be 1 short daily cycle and now in the 2nd daily cycle too(?) or this is more likely to be all one daily cycle.
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The SPX is due for a dcl, and it could dip down to back test the breakout near the 30 week ma ($5600 area). This also shows that we may see a ‘down’ week for the General Markets.
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The NASDAQ has been lagging and it did not make it up to new all-time highs yet. Due to cycle timing, it is also due for a pullback into a dcl, so we can watch the uptrend line or 30 week ma area for a possible reversal (DCL buy).
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THE SOXX was the weakest sector, but it did have a strong pop with MU earnings this week. That surge did make it R.T. and then it dropped on Friday, so I would say that it should also be dropping into a dcl next week.
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Next week will likely be a pull back in the General Markets and that can cause a pullback in Bitcoin / Crypto stocks. Both areas could become a buying opportunity over time.
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WTIC DAILY – Oil bounced on Friday, but I do expect it to drop further as it also is due to drop into a dcl. Timing for Oils low can be up to the day 50 area, so we’d see another 2 weeks of chopping lower if that is the case. That also could be an ICL.
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THE WEEKLY WTIC shows that price was unable to recover the 10 week ma, and it then dropped 4% this week. Again, I expect more selling.
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THE USD sold off fairly sharply from July through September, allowing Gold to rally.
1. The USD then bounced to the 30 week ma and then broke to new lows here at the end of September.
2. I see strong divergence in the MACD (& RSI) and it is due for a dcl, so the USD bounce may help the General Markets to sell off and The Precious Metals could also experience some of that selling.
3. I want you to see the weekly chart next…
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THE USD WEEKLY: Look at the Red circle. This chart shows that after crawling along the 200 week ma & underside of the triangle, we now had a breakdown of that 200 week ma. That triangle broke down with that recent sell off, and this could indicate a lot of continuation selling over the next weeks and months (possibly due to rate cuts). What do you think that would do for Gold & Silver?
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GOLD WEEKLY: Gold did form what is often a topping candle on a weekly basis. I also see 5 waves up that may be complete, and if so, Gold could be ready to gradually drop down into the next ICL as the USD bounces. It does not have to be a big drop, it may be milder and chop sideways over time until the USD rolls over again. Let’s look at the daily chart…
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GOLD peaked on day 17 so far and it could drop in a choppy manner down into a dcl from here, or it may drop, bounce, and double top too, before dropping into a dcl. We’ll see, but…
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GOLD could drop to the 50 sma for the next dcl. I have drawn it here coming out of that dcl and still being up near the highs (double top) before dropping into a final dip into the next ICL. Why did I draw it this way? That ICL in June was extremely mild price-wise, just below the 50sma, but it was extremely choppy and frustrating too. So Gold could chop while Silver plays out…
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SILVER honestly looks to have an ICL in place in early August and maybe a very short first daily cycle? It then climbed up the 10sma and it is at the May highs. It is also out of sync with Gold, because it shouldn’t be due for a drop like Gold is, so to be honest, it is hard to know how this will play out. Will it just become choppy until Gold puts in an ICL, or will it rally without Gold, the way Gold rallied without Silver? It is hard to know, but let me just say this…
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SILVER is a bullish Set up in the Big Picture. With the USD looking like it will sell off with future rate cuts, Gold and Silver look set up to tally higher over the next several months or so. If Silver gets choppy as mentioned above, it may be ready to back test this breakout. We do have a large weekly Doji.
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SILVER could dip into a dcl along the weekly red 10 week ma, similar to what we saw in Feb – May. This is a very bullish looking set up in the big picture, but with the General Markets & Gold looking ready to dip lower next week, we may need to endure a choppy Silver UNLESS it can just resist that selling & become the new bullish runner.
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GDX – So when we take a look over at the Miners, we see a bullish climb in an upward sloping channel, but it has become choppy at times, and we may be at the top of this channel. Again, it looks like next week could be a ‘down’ week, boring and choppy. A Buying opportunity develops in bull market sell offs though.
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GDX WEEKLY – That did look like a weekly topping candle, so again, next week may be a down week, boring and choppy.
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GDX has that channel that it is running higher in, but until it clears all of this resistance to the left, it has been choppy.
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GDX – Over time the run to prior highs seems very likely and then a breakout would be a big deal for the Miners. Many Miners can still double and triple or more, especially some of the Silver Miners, once they get running in a more steady manner.
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So, these are bullish looking big picture set ups, especially in the Precious Metals sector, but it does also look like we have ‘topping candles’ and ‘cycle timing’ calling for this to be a bit of boring ‘down’ week with some selling. There is a time to trade and at times it may be best to sit on our hands, unless we plan to try a ‘short’ trade or sell & get back in at the dcl. We just want to keep in mind that in a Bull Market, sell offs can lead to buying opportunities, so it’s not bad news, it just may take some patience and unfortunately it may be a boring week or 2 ahead of us.
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That said, Enjoy your Sunday day of relaxation.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Can Bitcoin reach the upper trend line? I’d say “Maybe”, because it should have made it that point, but we are running out of time using cycle timing and the 60 day time period. This may be ready to pull back with the General Markets too.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – We have seen Bitcoin move higher for the last 3 weeks, so again, maybe it will get up to the upper trend line before giving us a healthy pullback, and maybe not.
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Note: I have seen several Crypto stocks look like they are putting in a bottom or giving us a bottoming process. I’ll be watching this area during the bitcoin dip and the drop into a dcl for The General Markets, and covering this area in the daily reports. If you have time, See weekly charts of WULF, BTBT, HUT, IREN, MARA, RIOT, ETC, and look for the signs of a bottom possibly being put in place. I’ll place 2 examples below…
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MARA WEEKLY – The big picture gives a hint of where the next low may be, and it may already be in place, as seen here
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WULF WEEKLY: Wulf rallied this year, back tested the 30 week ma, and has already been rising up out of those higher lows.
