Thursday August 29 – Is That Headed This Way?
DATA – We not only have data being released this morning that can affect the markets, we had a sell off after hrs yesterday when the NVDA earnings release took place. That said, as I write the Futures have climbed back up and actually turned green. Now let’s look at the charts and see what any follow through selling or buying would look like…
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THE NASDAQ has peaked on day 13 so far and the selling on Wednesday lost the 50sma. In after-hours I saw the Nasdaq futures down well below the days lows, and we have jobless claims that could really kick off more selling, however I currently ( 5:30 a.m.) See the futures turning green. If we peak on day 13, this is L.T. and we have plenty of time to drop lower. If we rally today the NASDAQ will remain above the 50sma, so this is an important day.
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INTRADAY CHART:
NVDA released earnings and it Popped higher to $128, then it crashed straight down to $115. It then bounced back and started to pop and drop from here, and…
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NVDA sold off and closed near the lows at $116.95 (8 p.m. ET).
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NVDA at 6 a.m. has climbed back up to $122 this morning and the general markets futures are now green too!
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So this was NVDA before the close and it had sold off during the day and was now bouncing back. It closed near $126 and as you saw from the intraday chart above, it ended the day at $116, which is below the 10 & 50sma, but is currently at $122 and that would be back above the 50sma.
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SMCI – Super Micro has been selling off for months, but it was also down 22% yesterday alone as of 2 p.m. when I grabbed this chart.
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MU – Other Semiconductors have been weakening, so now we’ll see how this sector reacts to the Jobless Claims and NVDA.
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YESTERDAY I SAID ABOUT THE SOXX:
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THE SOXX has been choppy and that is still normal price action, and it even recovered the 20 ema yesterday, but notice this also resembles past times when it chopped and then dropped. I want to see The SOXX get back above the 50sma and that would satisfy me that the bull run has returned. Right now, it struggles on day 16, peak on day 13.
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So far The SOXX Peaked on day 13, and Wednesday was day 17:
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I have been pointing out that The SOXX never did recover the 50sma, so we may be looking at that normal ‘back-test’ of both the 50sma and the 10sma, and then continuation of the sell off.
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SO WITH THE GENERAL MARKETS: We do have the Jobless Claims report at 8:30 and it could push things either way, especially after seeing what happened in after hrs and now premarket with the rection to NVDA earnings. I have been watching to see if the SOXX can recover the 50sma and if the Nasdaq can stay above its’ 50sma.
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THE USD is due for a dcl, but so far each bounce gets rejected at the 10sma. That could change as soon as Thursday.
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WTIC – Is it fair to say that Oil is really too choppy and volatile to enjoy?
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GOLD – Since Gold is now on day 24, it may be time for that dip into a dcl, but it doesn’t have to be a big dip. We could get a dcl early or around day 32ish.
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SILVER – Silver closed down yesterday and landed on the 10 sma. This chart was captured at 6 :30 and Silver is rising up this morning. Silver has a day 12 peak and we’d like to see price get above that and give us a R.T. peak.
GDX has dropped to the 20 ema, and it has done this in the past. You can see that act as support if you look at the March to May rally. GDX is only on day 17, so I am hoping that this is a half cycle low, but it is really becoming uncomfortable here. Why? Because Gold and Silver are not in sync. ALSO…
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ALSO… The GDX ETF did get caught up in the selling of the General Markets a little in early August. If the markets sell off with the NVDA drop and Jobless Claims, this could just chop lower like that ‘peak in May to mid June low’.
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There is not much else to say today, except let’s watch and see what happens in pre-market today. After the NVDA release, the futures and NVDA Price gyrated all over the place. We now will see The Jobless Claims report, a revised GDP Report, and some other wholesale/retail data. Stay Frosty, and I’ll be interested in seeing how the NASDAQ closes the day (above or below that 50sma). It may give us clues as to the strength of this move out of the lows. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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If you are bored, these are what I think will be some stocks to watch today-
I saw these in after hrs as they released earnings and some are ready to gap open 20% higher and some lower. These may be interesting to watch today.
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~ALEX
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FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT:
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ON TUESDAY BITCOIN DROPPED SHARPLY AFTER THE CLOSE: This is the danger of Bitcoin when it gets late in the daily cycle count…it can drop sharply. I doubt that this is a day 53 early final low though. That little green candle should be day 54 and that is what we have so far, so we could bounce and do one more final drop near day 60….
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BITCOIN – So now we got a new low and that would give us a day 54 low so far. COULD THIS BE THE LOW THAT WE LOOK FOR AROUND DAY 60? It is possible, but for now I have to count this mornings green candle as day 55. If you were just buying Bitcoin ETFs, you could try a small starter with a stop, but crypto stocks can breakdown so fast and lose 10%, so it may not be a great time to try those yet. Keep in mind that…
