Wednesday
DATA – It looks like a busy 3 days, especially with the Fed Minutes LATER today and the Fed speaking at Jackson Hole on Friday.
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THE SOXX has not recovered the 50sma yet.
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THE SPX almost made it back to the former highs and we are wondering, “Is it possible that we put in a slam down ICL only 3.5 months after the last one?” Here is a clue to look for. If we see a higher low on a pullback and then a run to new highs, it would be likely that we did. And if…
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If we see a drop that just keeps dropping through that 50sma, or a small bounce and then it loses the 50sma as drawn here, it is more likely that the sell off that started 3 weeks ago is going to return for another lower low and the real ICL.
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WTIC – Oil has now rallied 3 times in 2024, and each rally looked pretty strong, but each time it rolled over. I drew a triangle for Oil and I’ll show you that in my next chart with a new thought…
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WTIC -In July I drew a triangle for Oil, and I was thinking that when this breaks out higher, it could really take off.
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WTIC – Oil turned up right on time on August 9th and this looks quite bullish, but…
Oil has stalled at the middle of that triangles Apex and I got to thinking, “What if The WTIC broke DOWN instead of up? What if Rate cuts weakens Oils price?” Do you remember when Oil sold off to under $10 in 2020? Well, Oil selling down from here is a possibility. I didn’t consider this before, because as Oil sold off, Oil stocks resisted that sell off. Well…
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THE XOP sold off or crashed with the General Markets, and yesterday it was then rejected at resistance and volume was higher than it was during the bounce. THIS is a cautionary note, because this went from a bullish set up before the markets sell off, to breaking down and now struggling at resistance, as Oil sells off.
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GOLD did a small pop and drop yesterday on day 18, and that can be a temporary topping candle. It may just lead to a small pullback and then another run higher, since it is only day 18, and the Fed Minutes at 2 may cause a rally higher too. I drew a drop and one more push higher in the 2nd daily cycle, but we don’t really know EXCATLY which path Gold will take. It could also just continue higher from here with Fed Minutes revealing the conversation of rate cuts.
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SILVER also popped and pulled back into the close. It regained the 50sma, so I’d like to see price hold above that 50sma and then push higher with the release of the minutes, but even if it lost the 50sma, it may only be temporary.
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GDX put in a candle of indecision after breaking to new 2024 highs. In fact, GDX is right at the 2022 high again.
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Just quickly at a glance I am seeing Target (TGT) blasting off up 12% after earnings pre-market, and Macys (M) getting hit to the downside down 10%, after their earnings release. The earnings area has been mixed, but some stocks, like PANW (Palo Alto) look excellent after earnings. I’ve been watching earnings release a little more closely after that sell off to see if things look bad, good, or mixed. So far I see Mixed.
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Last week we had a lot of Data released early in the week that was related to inflation, and the Precious Metals sector moved higher Thursday and Friday. Yesterdays Pop and Drop and Doji candles made it a boring day, really. We have more inflation data this week and 2 Fed Days, so we’ll see how things go from here, but so far the General Markets (at least for the short term) and Precious Metals have remained bullishly set up, while Oil is threatening to break down. Bitcoin is chopping or coiling sideways, I’ll cover that below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I wrote:
BITCOIN is starting to push higher as I grab this chart Monday night. It has coiled for about 2 weeks, so now it may make a run higher and then dip into that day 60 time period. Crypto stocks have been basing and some do look ready to move higher, so I am keeping an eye on that and did mention WULF, HUT, IREN, etc in recent reports, as crossing Their 10sma and perking up.
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BITCOIN – This looks like a capitulation low on day 31, but those are often THE low, so even though this would be day 47, I want to keep an eye on it, because it coudl break higher and then put in a higher low simply due to the capitulation nature of the last drop. At the same time, some of the Crypto miners are starting to look as though they want to try to bottom out. WULF is actually in rally mode.
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WULF is actually in rally mode, so I am keeping an eye on a few others, but they are very choppy and do not seem ready to buy and hold yet (unless you don’t mind the chop).
