Tuesday August 20th
We have some FED DATA this Wednesday and Friday, but so far these markets just want to go in one direction, and that has been HIGHER. Thankfully, Gold and Silver are also pushing higher and that has been a buy area for us. Let’s discuss the markets…
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THE NASDAQ broke above the 50sma now and closed near the highs of the day. This is looking more and more like a V-Bottom. Could that be an ICL after only 3.5 months? I’ve said that I can’t rule it out, but I’ve never seen that before either. The recommendation has been ‘If you are long, use stops & stay frosty’. I’m watching for a pullback to see if it finds a higher low or just sells down. So far some of the leading stocks have done well (I’ll discuss that shortly). We’ll take a look at NFLX& several others, for examples.
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Take a look at NFLX , for example. It is almost back at the highs. If other stocks are going to do this kind of a recovery, you might want to buy AMD, TSEM, or MU, because the SOXX is lagging a bit and could play catch up. Enter at the 50sma and use a stop. I’ll discuss this more shortly.
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THE SOXX was still near the lows last week, but it too is starting to make a run for that 50sma. The SOXX is the sector that started the sell off breakdown, so I am interested in seeing if the semiconductors can recover. AMD, TSEM & MU are lagging the recovery seen with NFLX, NVDA, SHAK, AAPL, etc, so that may make them a ‘buy’ opportunity as they gain the 50sma (buy with a stop).
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And THE SPX is the leader of the 3. It gapped above the 50sma and just kept running.
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So I do want to look at some stocks and you’ll see a variety of recoveries. NFLX was obviously a strong recovery, and SHAK, AAPL, and NFLX are back near the highs too. Lets look at TSLA and GOOG. They are lagging a bit, but will they play catch up?
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TSLA had a solid rally from $170 to $270 in June, before the crash. It has regained the 50sma, but it is nowhere near the highs yet, so you could buy it as a lagger with a stop if you feel that these markets may have an ICL and will just continue to ramp up.
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GOOG is also still down at the lows, so buying here and using a rising or trailing stop may pay off.
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AVGO : So what I am trying to say is that as time moved forward, I am seeing v-bottoms and stronger companies that look to be recovering. AVGO gained and back tested that 50sma, so that’s a buy with a stop too. Take a look at my list of favorites below and you’ll see what I am seeing and it does make me wonder if the FED MINUTES will cause a sell off — or — a RALLY?
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Look at AMD : Even though I have concerns that the markets selling could return, AMD would be a strong buy, in my opinion, for those that like to buy & hold in this sector. Look up the news on the purchase that they made yesterday. They paid 4.9 Billion to buy another company, and usually a stock sells off when a company is the buyer, but they are now competing directly with NVDA with this purchase and AMD ran higher yesterday, with this news headline. It looks set to break the 50sma and continue if the sell off doesn’t return.
AMD to Significantly Expand Data Center AI Systems Capabilities with Acquisition of Hyperscale Solutions Provider ZT Systems
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See also some of the ones on my Watchlist as leaders: 3 month daily charts of NFLX, NVDA, AVGO, UBER, SHAK, MPWR, KLAC, AAPL, etc. It’s hard to deny the strength in those, and some are back at their highs. At the same time, we have Gold and Silver Miners that are also making a very nice run higher too, and I feel that there is a little less risk in that sector for now.
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WTIC – Oil just cannot keep running, but even with this chop, pop & drop price action, the XOP & XLE look fine. And I think…
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And I think that Oil is inside of this triangle and the Oil Stocks are doing their own thing.
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT: WTIC tagged the weekly resistance area and sold off gain, but this larger triangle pattern still remains in play, it just causes choppiness to tighten up as we enter the apex of that triangle.
XOP -As you can see, the Oil Stocks did not drop with Oil on Monday, but I am still not invested here personally. I really do like the se ups recently in the Precious Metals.
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THE USD made a lower low on Monday.
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ON FRIDAY GOLD was on day 16. This chart was from the weekend report, please read what I wrote on the chart.
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GOLD was on day 17 on Monday. We saw a sell off that recovered, so we ended up with a new high on day 17. Tuesday will be day 18 of a possible 30+ day daily cycle, so that could mean 2 or more weeks before the next dcl shows up. Gold & Silver are both running nicely now.
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SILVER and Silver stocks have been lagging, while Gold & Gold Stocks are starting to break to new highs ( BARRICK, IAG, EGO, NEM, etc). I am thinking that Silver stocks will do what Gold stocks have done & Gold stocks will continue to perform very well. SILVER IS ONLY ON DAY 7 and it is trying to recover the 50sma.
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THE GDX has climbed nicely out of the dcl reversal candle. It started out choppy at the lows, but by day 5 it was starting to show strength and day 8 broke the downtrend. On Monday it started red and then just slowly climbed all day again, now stretching out to the July highs. This is only day 10 for the GDX ( but I do usually go by Gold). The Gold & Silver Miners look great.
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In the weekend report I showed how some Gold stocks were set up at the 50sma last week and are now at the highs. I then said that EQX was set up the way that they were, so it is a lagger that should play catch up. I used the chart below…
EQX already released earnings, broke the downtrend, is at the 30sma, and it had a nice run to new highs in the past. This is a good buy to me, it looks just like the others did.
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EQX started to go at the 50sma, so I posted this 7 minutes after trading started Monday. It looks ready to run, and…
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EQX continued to run and I think that it is going to make a run for the highs, like the others before it did. Notice that it has made it through the 200 & the 50sma.
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HL was also mentioned last week as a Silver Miner (lagging) that released earnings and moved above the 50sma. It continued higher too.
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GORO just had 2 good days off of the lows too, and it closed up 9%, just above the 50sma.
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SLVRF has a tendency to put in very large up days too, as seen on this chart. It looks like it may be just starting to move higher (Silver). The smaller Miners are running again.
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The smaller Miners like AAGFF, DNCVF, SLVRF, USAS, etc etc are running again.
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TUDOR GOLD looks like it is starting to run. I posted this in the morning, and it actually closed right here too, so it could still be considered as a buy, maybe especially if it gets above the 200sma, but I’d buy before that.
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CDE- I am really thinking that Silver stocks really need to be owned as they start to push higher here. If Silver has a couple of those big Up Days, I think that these can put in 7-10% days at any given time.
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We have a Bull running rather swiftly in the Precious Metals again, so let’s enjoy the run while we can. In past reports I have pointed out Gold stocks that were leading the way, as well as Gold stocks lagging, Silver needing to find an ICL, and Silver stocks that should be playing catch up, and so far all of that is falling into place. Will the sell off return in the General Markets? Well, the set up is there, and the Fed Minutes does get released this week, but I’m seeing some stocks return to the former highs, so it wouldn’t hurt to buy with a stop or buy the next dip if it reverses and see how things turn out. I’m cautious, but stocks like NVDA, MPWR, AVGO, AAPL, etc. etc. have nice chart set ups, and AMD has some nice potential. Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is starting to push higher as I grab this chart Monday night. It has coiled for about 2 weeks, so now it may make a run higher and then dip into that day 60 time period. Crypto stocks have been basing and some do look ready to move higher, so I am keeping an eye on that and did mention WULF, HUT, IREN, etc in recent reports, as crossing Their 10sma and perking up.
