Tuesday August 6th
DATA– Market moving data is pretty slim this week. I was thinking that we could bounce into that Jobless Claims report, and then possible sell off again into more of a dcl, but we’ll see. Let’s look at the charts and BELEIEVE IT OR NOT, I MIGHT have some good news for you.
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So we did see a reversal with the General Markets and here we see The SOXX now under the 200sma and it also broke below the ICL. In my opinion and experience, THAT really does point to bearishness of this drop longer term. WHY more bearish?…
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Bearish why? Because this is only a little over 3 months from the ICL, and that gives us more ‘time’ to drop. The cycle count is hard to see exactly with this steep of a drop, but we are on the 2nd or 3rd daily cycle, so could have 1 or 2 more daily cycles lower. I am watching price at the 200sma and the red 10 sma. Notice how the SOXX bounced sideways there for a couple of days and then sold off again. Could this be the next area to go short as the Jobless Claims is released?
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SPX -This is actually a DOJI candle if I had the candlesticks up, and a DOJI is a candle or a day or indecision. We had buying & Selling and that can be some short covering and then some selling. This MIGHT bounce into the Jobless Claims report and then I have to expect another drop. The important thing to notice is that the SPX has now broken below the ICL too. Note…
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We are in crash-mode with 3 days off real selling. Thursdays selling saw a gap down Friday with follow-through selling and now Mondays gap down and sell off. 3 days of Crash mode. I still might have good news though…
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WTIC: This is also deeper than it should have been, so it seems like EVERYTHING that we usually cover in the reports is getting caught up in the selling. Normal cycle patterns are being broken. Even the USD is selling off. All you can do when everything is selling off is respect the crash and see how it all plays out.
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The Oil Stocks, represented here by THE XOP got caught up in the CRASH MODE too. Each chart that we look at had a bad Thursday, a crash Friday, and some Follow through selling Monday. 3 days of deep selling. AND THAT IS WHY I SAID THAT I MIGHT HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS?
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AND THAT IS WHY I SAID THAT I MIGHT HAVE SOME GOOD NEWS?
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GOLD – Look at Gold on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. GOLD is NOT IN CRASH MODE. In premarket, Gold did drop down and tag that 50sma yesterday, but it bounced rather strongly. Let’s look at SPOT GOLD…
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GOLD – This chart shows us pre-market movement too, and take a look at what would be Thursday, Friday, and Monday. This is not getting caught up in the sell off. Gold has started a 2nd daily cycle out of an ICL and it still shows us higher lows and the selling recovered, so this might start to help the Miners, we’ll see. Remember also that…
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Remember also that Silver was supposed to drop into an ICL and that may be finishing up too…
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SILVER actually didn’t Crash on Thursday, Friday, and Monday either, even as it dipped into an ICL drop! Silver was expected to drop into an ICL and that may be all that we are seeing here. Don’t forget that last week with Thursday and Fridays crash taking place…
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Don’t forget what I said in the weekend report: I pointed out that last week with Thursday and Fridays crash taking place, Silver actually closed up 1.33% and remains above the 30 week ma. I was a little concerned about that stochastics and the weekly look of weakness, but if Silver puts in an ICL, we may have Gold and Silver holding up in this sell off.
So I took a look at THE GDX on Thursday (not bad), Friday (gapped up and then sold off a bit, not too bad) and then Monday (Crash and then an attempt to bounce back). It is obvious that the GDX or Miners did get caught up in the sell off much more than Gold, but I am noticing something encouraging here too. It is not broken…
1. The ICL was put in place with Gold & GDX in June, and both made new highs, GDX made a new high on day 20. That was bullish.
2. That also makes this still very right translated, due for a dcl, and it is still above the ICL. The almost bad news could be…
3. Was that a day 26 dcl? If so, it broke the day 26 lows, but it also might still be looking for that dcl. If so, this was day 33 on Monday. So the real dcl could form here.
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So there is something very interesting taking place with the precious metals sector amidst the 3 day crash mode selling. Gold and GDX have an ICL, and neither one is truly damaged right now. Silver was due for a new low, an ICL, and that is what appears to be taking place. This sector may pull it together, so all hope is not lost here. I’ll be paying attention to Gold, Silver, and Miners on the next bounce. And yes, Silver stocks took a bite out of me too, but Silver was dipping into an ICL, and that may be why they were weaker. If Silver could rally out of an ICL, and Gold could return to new all time highs in the 2nd daily cycle, I think the Miners could possibly follow (safe-haven?). I want to discuss Bitcoin below too, enjoy your Tuesday.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN broke the rules when it dipped below the ICL. That is viewed as a weakness. I grabbed this reversal candle on day 31, because this is the timing that I was expecting to see a reversal and now I want to watch the bounce. Let’s go live…
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Let’s go live: 7 a.m. Bitcoin
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BITCOIN: I don’t like to bend the rules, so I have to point out that Bitcoin DID take out what should have been an ICL. THAT should mean that we could see another lower low by the time we reach the 60 day dcl ( & THAT could be the Final low). That said, I will just mention this…
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Bitcoin broke the lows and at this point it should indicate that day 60 will make even a new lower low later.
That said, I will just mention that if we just saw a ‘shakeout’, with capitulation / exhaustion volume, there is always a chance that we get an Anomaly or an extremely rare overshoot crash that recovers. I DON’T LIKE TO SPREAD FALSE HOPE, AND I DON’T LIKE TO BREAK THE RULES, but that volume and reversal candle does look like a shakeout.
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So I am watching Crypto stocks for clues too. I still have to expect another low like the pink path, but I just wanted to point out a very small possibility that we get an anomaly recovery.
