Wednesday July 17th – Ride Those Bulls
I have a lot of charts in this report, and it took a while to write up, so I won’t have time to proofread before release. Please excuse any typos and thank you.
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IWM – This 4 day explosive move out of the consolidation in the Russell 2000 is amazing! Often these will pull back sharply or bull flag to adjust to that extreme move higher.
BACK ON JULY 9 I saw this consolidation and I mentioned that LABU and other Biotechs stocks looked bullish and were a buy. I mentioned TWST, GH, OMER, etc as bullish.
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LABU has been moving straight up out of that base over the past week too. Also TWST, GH, OMER, NVAX and many other biotechs have been running too.
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CRSP , EDIT, and some others look to just be starting to move out of Their bases. Yesterdays volume was improving and CRSP closed over the 50 sma.
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WTIC – Oil has been dropping and I think that it may just be a 1/2 cycle dip. Why? The timing is perfect and back test of the 50 & 200sma is normal. Also the XLE & XOP are moving higher even though Oil is dipping, so that adds to the idea that this is likely just a temporary dip.
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XLE – Oil was down but the Oil stocks are breaking out above their 50sma. This is a very nice set up now, with that bounce & higher low off of the 200sma. I have mentioned some of my old favorites in recent reports like NOG, APA, OKE, WTI etc -they are doing very well.
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NOG – The Oil stocks that I mentioned in recent reports are doing well. They will be in the ‘buy the dip’ category too.
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GOLD broke to new all-time highs yesterday. I was trying to explain why this move above the 50sma that broke the downtrend line was a Buy earlier, and likely an ICL even though we didnt get a new low (which everyone looks for).
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I EXPLAINED THIS LAST WEEK
AND IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
Do we currently have a bull triangle ICL? Maybe we do. This is NOT OVERBOUGHT. Let’s look at the bullish signs in what was supposed to be a 4th daily cycle. We might have a stealth ICL instead- a continuation of the Bull Run.
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Notice that The Weekly RSI did turn up and volume spiked at a time when we expected weakness (4th daily cycle). We might wrongly conclude that the MACD is slightly divergent. I wouldn’t worry about that, since a back test usually corrects that later. I have pointed out in the past that triangles do form dcls in the apex at times when the strength does not allow for a weaker sell off to new lows. Does that work for ICLs too? This set up looks so bullish that I would not count it out. That volume last week was to be later in the 4th daily cycle, and that is showing strength. It seems that the weaker inflation / rate cut theme is winning.
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Then I was asked again in the comments yesterday about an ICL possibility, and when I explained my thinking in a slightly different way, I was asked by Rob L. to include this in todays report.
So again, GOLD basically should have dropped to a new low, but with all of the bullish Fed Talk about a possible rate cut and lower inflation, we saw a rally. Using technical analysis, I mentioned that you can buy the downtrend break and use a stop in case it was just temporary–but it has been lasting and now we have new highs.
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SILVER is lagging a little, but it is a bullish set up and I would be expecting a breakout higher here too.
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GDX: I used this chart yesterday to show that Monday was day 18, so…
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THE GDX is on day 19 now and that was another strong Pop yesterday. It broke the downtrend and started to run swiftly. I only really see 2 down days since the break of the downtrend, as it runs along the red 8 ema.
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And yet we do still have some ‘laggers’. It is surprising to me that AG was still trapped here, but I posted this bullish ‘pinch’ in the comments yesterday. You could Buy with a stop or buy as it breaks out.
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AG then started to breakout and closed a bit higher at $6.84, up almost 6%. It is still a buy in my opinion.
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FSM was a bit stagnant lately too, maybe because Silver has been chopping sideways. I pointed this out as a buy too ( if you want a lagger on the 50sma that may play catch up).
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FSM was up 3% and should run with Silver.
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KGC and several other Gold stocks have been running strong. The only dip that really shows up here is what would have been the dip into the ICL.
1. I wanted to point out this move because some Crypto stocks could run steady like this too, and that is why they can be a buy & hold with a basket of them. KGC, AEM, AU, and a few others are running like this- a very strong run.
2. I also wanted to show this run to point out laggers that may catch up, like IAG, GFI, NG (was), etc..
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IAG is lagging, but this is a BUY. I was watching NG looking like this and it is at the highs now. Also check out HMY…
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YESTERDAY I SAID: HMY: Surprisingly, some of the former ‘Leaders’ are pulling back a bit, instead of making new highs. This dip isn’t a big concern, but it shows that we basically have a mixed market in the very short term. Overall, these are all bullish set ups in the long term. Buy The Dips?
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HMY – One day later, up 16%. 🙂
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This market has MANY bullish areas and MANY bullish set ups! Enjoy the ride in Precious Metals, Crypto, Biotech, Tech, EV, OIL, ENERGY, etc. I have more charts below, including a few more set ups. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM TUESDAYS REPORT:
BITCOIN started to surge on Monday and we are only on day 10.
I wanted to put down the count out of the last 2 ICLs, to show you how much more time is left after day 10. This is early, even if we start to dip lower. The only question here is will this now just rocket higher like that move out of the January ICL after day 10? Or will we be a bit more choppy and restricted, like the move out of the May ICL. Time will tell, but either way, this still looks like a good place to buy, if you didn’t buy a basket last week or the week before. These crypto stocks can double in weeks if they do start trending.
BITCOIN on day 12 continues to be green. Sometimes Bitcoin runs with large pullbacks, other times (like where the orange arrows are) it just runs straight up. So far this run has been strong out of the ICL. That was also a ‘shake out’ move or a stop run.
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ANY was lagging, but it is starting to run too. It gets hard to buy a stock that is up 22% in 2 days, but this can just run right to the 50sma and it can also break out over time.
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
BITF is just now starting to break a downtrend line too. it is a buy as a lagger.
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BITF started to move, so I posted this an hour into trading. And…
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BITF was then up 6% an hour later and it closed up over 7%.
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SOS is starting to move higher out of a base.
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RIOT was moving up to the 50sma with a strong move, so I posted this at the open and mentioned that it was looking ready to break out that day. You could buy this as it pushed through the 50sma.
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RIOT sure did breakout. It closed up near 10%.
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ROKU is a bullish set up and breaking out as a buy.
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NIO is in that EV sector that I have discussed and looks good.
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WKHS was mentioned in a past report on July 10. The set up had big potential.
WKHS – The next day it was up 17%, but I called this a buy & hold…
WKHS had 2 down days (small dips) and popped again yesterday by 16% in the first hour. THAT is how these set ups can run, so I called it ‘risky’, but it was a buy and hold (maybe just a small position).
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WKHS was up 40% yesterday, but pulled back and closed up 28%. I show you this because I also showed you SPCE as a very similar set up.
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SPCE is a very similar set up as WKHS, but it is still at the lows.
