June 29th Weekend Report – Rest Up
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SPX DAILY – With Fridays PCE report, the markets started to rally fairly strongly when inflation seemed to ease up again, but then things sold off into the end of the day. So that would give us a very R.T. daily cycle, but we are due for a dip into a dcl and next week we should get that dcl dip next week.
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And now The SPX WEEKLY Chart shows us a weekly reversal candle too.
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NASDAQ WEEKLY– I see 2 weekly reversal candles. It could be a rather mild dip, maybe down to the 10 week ma area.
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WTIC – Oil has been rising for a few weeks out of the reversal low (ICL) at support. Oil can have 45-50 day long daily cycles and the first 2 could be bullish ones.
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THE XOP, XLE, and Oil Stocks can be choppy at the lows, so I drew that here at the last couple of ICLs. It was interesting to see that after some choppiness at the lows, this sector almost went straight up week after week for 2 months in ‘rally mode’, so this may be a sector that we want to look at often to see if that repeats, or you could just buy a small basket of Oil stocks, XOP, or XLE and Buy & Hold for results. I always mention NOG, APA, OKE, MRO, VLO, etc and right now I do like the charts of OKE, VLO, MRO, & APA. Check those out for a basket.
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GOLD is due to dip lower into a dcl or ICL with the 4th daily cycle, but it has been holding up well. We could see a small bounce and then a drop into that 4th daily cycle and the $2200 area looks like a normal pullback area to watch going forward (30 week ma).
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GOLD I was looking at this chart and couldn’t help but notice that long sideways chop into the Feb lows gave us a very mild tag of that 30 week ma. So it was a mild drop, and that is what I am watching for at this time too. Yes, we still could drop suddenly & sharply lower, but I want to be alert to a possible sideways choppy milder dip too.
The SILVER Weekly price has dropped down to the 10 week ma and has now chopped along that 10 week ma for 3 weeks. I also feel that it could drop even lower with this daily cycle.
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GDX WEEKLY- The miners can drop down suddenly, and we had 1 drop from the peak already. Currently the selling paused, but I can see this going lower again, and I’m watching that $32 area as a 30 week ma target and the orange support line falls in that area too. Price can slightly overshoot, like we saw back in February 2023.
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So I am basically expecting more downside in the General Markets and also in the Precious Metals Sector, but there is a difference. For the General Markets we should be early in our intermediate Cycle, so the next dcl is a definite buy with a stop. When it comes to Gold & Silver though, we are running late since we are currently in the 4th daily cycle. The next unknown for that sector is, “Will we only have 4 daily cycles and this next low in July is the ICL(?), or will we get 5 daily cycles and the next ICL will come due in August?” Time will tell on that one and we’ll look for clues after the next dcl is in place. An ICL in the Precious Metals will be a STRONG BUY for the Miners, so you could just buy the next dcl with a stop and look for strength after that to identify it as an ICL.
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As a reminder, next week is a shortened week of trading in the U.S. (Thursday July 4 is a Holiday). Friday will likely be very light trading as many take the 4 day holiday weekend. I myself will be taking a 4 day weekend with both Thursday and Friday off, but I may also be invested in crypto during that day off.
I’ll cover Bitcoin below and I hope that all are having a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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REMINDER: This was Bitcoin 7 am Friday, and I said that this is either
1. A day 54 low and it breaks higher anytime now or
2. It is day 58 and will drop into a day 60 (Roughly day 60) low.
3. I would say that a break above that 9 sma would be a bullish break higher (the blue line).
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Bitcoin Saturday morning,
As of Saturday, we are 59 days forward from the last low. We still do not have a breakout higher or lower, but one thing is certain, we should be very close to having that low in place. Please know that these roughly form every 60 days, so it could be day 63 or day 66, etc, before we see that actual low. It also could already be in place at day 54, so if you hold a small basket & want to add to current positions or you own nothing and want to pick up a Miner or 2 or 3, it’s best to wait for a solid reversal at the lows. If we do NOT get a dip lower from here, I am watching to see if we can close above that blue 10 sma line too. That may indicate that the dcl is in place.
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These crypto stocks do move fast and can be very hard to hold on down days, but with Bitcoin dropping right down at THE LATEST LOWS, many Crypto Stocks are not at their lows at all. They have been taking turns running higher and then dipping down a little. IREN, WULF, HUT, BITF, etc, have made strong gains as bitcoin sold off. That seems quite bullish for the sector as a whole, but upside potential is still great in my opinion.
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WULF doubled over the past couple of weeks, and this move was as bitcoin sold off.
