June 23rd – Weekend Review
Hi All! Sorry this is late – I had a boat load of ‘Stuff’ get dumped on me this weekend, and just dug myself out of it. This will need to be a shorter and more to the point report, but I will cover the bigger picture on all of the usual charts.
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THE SPX DAILY– It looks like a 5 wave move higher and we did get a bit of a reversal on Thursday and slightly red Friday.
1. I’ve been expecting a dip into a dcl to start anytime here, so we may be starting that dip now.
2. The exception that I have mentioned is that we might have had an EARLY dcl on my wave 3-4, and started a 2nd daily cycle from there. I view that as ‘Less Likely’, because that was very early.
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The NASDAQ and SPX weekly charts look the same and that is often a reversal or topping candle, so again, we may be at a peak for now and a dip into a dcl will follow.
.WTIC WEEKLY– Oil has now pushed higher out of the low for 3 weeks. We saw a strong reversal candle pushing higher, and that was followed by 2 weeks of gains. I have to wonder if Oil will just reach that upper line and then pull back, because of what the XOP has been doing as Oil moved higher for 3 weeks…
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This is The XOP WEEKLY and as Oil moved higher, it is stagnant. Maybe Oil tags the upper line and pulls back as the XOP rolls over and puts in a low later.
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AS A REMINDER, I SAID THIS ON FRIDAY: Expecting a drop in Gold soon
It is likely that we are in a fourth daily cycle that will drop even lower yet. Why? We have a L.T. 3rd Daily cycle, but it didn’t undercut the last dcl, to give us a failed daily cycle. We really should see that weakness and sentiment change with a break below the dcl, so now I’ll be looking for that dip lower to happen into July.
GOLD DAILY– Gold dropped Friday. Just 2 more days with that kind of a drop would give us a failed daily cycle, but we’ll see how it plays out. I am expecting a drop into new lows.
GOLD WEEKLY– Gold has been chopping sideways for quite a while now, hasn’t it? Well lately, instead of a deep sell off into the ICL, we have had sideways chop that looks like a battle of the Bulls and Bears and then it gradually dips lower. I have to expect that with Gold now too, due to the timing for.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Please read the chart. This looks quite bullish holding the 10 week ma, but it should break down sooner than later.
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THIS WAS THE GDX WEEKLY CHART FOR MAY 18 –
We were going to break out or be rejected and then try to build up steam or energy to breakout later.
THE GDX did NOT breakout. It has pulled back and will build up energy to breakout after the next ICL. This could drop as low as the 30 week ma for the next ICL.
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So things are playing out as expected, but the exact timing has been a little elusive. Fed Meetings, inflation reports, etc are causing the expectations of a rate cut to be postponed, but the General Markets and Precious Metals Sectors have been remarkably resilient. That said, even the strongest of bull markets dip down into dcls and ICLs, and as time goes on, and we need to expect that going forward. Bitcoin has been pulling back already, so I’ll take a look at that below. Enjoy your ….well, I guess the weekend is over. Sorry about the lateness of this report and thank you for understanding. See you on Monday!
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~ALEX
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FROM FRIDAY:
Bitcoin dropped to another new low as expected. This appears to be day 51, since Bitcoin traded through the weekend and then every day this week. The last low came in early…
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On Friday I mentioned that I am starting to see a possible wedge forming (Bull Wedge) with Bitcoin. We can still get a false break down to that $60,000 area as a shakeout and a right shoulder on the inverse H&S, and then an ICL. I like to think of the possibilities as these play out, but with a fast mover like Bitcoin, we should just expect more selling until we get a breakout above this recent downtrend (orange line). It still has ‘time’ left to fall lower.
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Bitcoin – As time marches on and Bitcoin trades 24/7, we now find ourselves on day 53 Sunday. A low around day 60 could come this week if it comes a little early. Many Crypto Stocks are ‘holding up’, so it does seem that they are under accumulation while bitcoins drop escalated.
SDIG – was up Friday as Bitcoin sells off day after day.
BTDR has been rallying since May. It put in a reversal on Friday at the 9sma and is ‘holding up well as Bitcoin sells off. So in this sector, it does seem that a rally is next with Bitcoin after it finds its’ next DCL.
