Post-Fed Thursday – All Eyes On Inflation
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DATA – Todays data covers the economy and it has more inflation numbers. These do move the General Markets and The USD & Gold, Silver, and The Miners.
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THE SPX : Wednesdays inflation numbers came in lower than expected, so the markets popped higher. After the fed, they remained higher, but started to sell off, so we saw a pop & drop. That candle is often a topping candle, but good data may cause another push higher. We are due for a dcl dip to start at any time.
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NASDAQ – Again, this is often a topping candle, because it shows that buyers couldn’t hold the gains.
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WTIC – Oil is stuck under the 34 sma and downtrend line. It should pull back from here.
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THE USD had a large move down and then bounced off of the 200sma. I mentioned that it may chop sideways and so far the price really hasn’t gone anywhere.
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Wednesdays Inflation numbers came in tamer than expected and the Fed still called for a rate cut this year. That used to be enough to push Gold & Silver higher, but yesterday they pushed higher and both were halted by the 10sma. A dcl is due. Let’s see what todays numbers do.
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GOLD has a chance to put in a dcl here, but it didnt close above the 10 sma, even with the rate cut promise and surprise lower inflation number. This is likely day 28 of a bear flag that will bring Gold lower into a dcl and also break below the last dcl to give us a ‘failed daily cycle’.
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SILVER has started to swing wider than it used to as it tops here. It also couldn’t get above the 10 sma, and those inflation numbers and the Fed calling for a rate cut used to be all it took to push higher. We have more inflation numbers today.
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GDX – Miners popped on good news, but couldn’t hold the gains. We are due for a dcl and this does look like a bullish descending wedge, but it MIGHT break down with a false breakdown, and then break higher out of a dcl. Please read the chart, I added an interesting note that would put us in the 4th daily cycle already.
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Many Miners also seemed heavy, by opening higher and then they closed red or ‘gave up the gains’.
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So we have big data today, and the markets are due for a dcl. Nobody expected the lower inflation numbers that came in yesterday, but you could see that the various sectors seem what I call ‘heavy’, or unable to push higher and hold the gains. We just have to wait and see if the Jobs report or PPI Numbers will send things lower into their dcl’s or continue to prolong the sell off. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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As a sidenote: Silver made a new low overnight today, and is trying to bounce back. That puts it on day 30 and it lowers the parameters for a swing low if this holds. Silver is L.T.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Right now Bitcoin is in a very large consolidation after a strong run up. 3 thoughts when I look at Bitcoin here:
1. This long consolidation could last for all of the 60 day daily cycle, or it can break out.
2. I roughly look for 30 & 60 day lows. I had mentioned a long time ago that a day 42 low just seems too early, and then it formed a small triangle. I said that with Gold those can be where a stealth dcl forms. That happened around day 52 and then it surged higher.
3. If that is where I start my count ( at the Triangle apex), we would be at day 31 with that recent low, and that is normal. Now we just have to see if this will breakout and run or just continue chopping sideways, so nothing has changed with Bitcoin yet.
