Tuesday June 11th – Pullbacks and The Fed
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THE SPX – This is day 35 and we often start to drop into a dcl anytime around this time. It also shows a 5 wave move up and we have the Fed Decision and speech tomorrow, so we need to expect a pull back at any time.
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LABU (XBI & IBB) – I saw several Biotech stocks doing very well (See NVAX, TWST, GH, etc) so I tried the LABU trade, but it too looks like it might get weighed down and find a dcl soon. It’s a tough call, because it could act separately, but the risk of a dip is still there when the markets pull back.
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WTIC – I am expecting more selling in Oil, and this is day 33 of a possible 45-50 day daily cycle.
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THE USD did a pop and drop yesterday after a very strong move last Friday. You can see that past moves became choppy and sideways often, so I drew a pink flag as the possible path for the USD. The USD WILL BE affected by the Fed.
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GOLD & SILVER – I just wanted you to see at a glance that Gold was up $20 and Silver was up over 60 cents in the afternoon. I wanted you to see this and then know that most of the Miners really didn’t follow.
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GOLD – I wrote on this chart that we see day 26 with a day 25 low, or day 1 with a dcl. I think that we are seeing day 26 of a possible 30+ Daily cycle, because the Miners didn’t move higher with Gold. As mentioned before, I also see a possible H&S here.
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I DREW THIS FOR GOLD IN THE WEEKEND REPORT: A bounce into the Fed could give false hope & then drop into that DCL. Please read the chart. Clicking on the chart will enlarge it.
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SILVER – Well, I have to say that Silver looks ‘interesting’. It is on day 26 and it is reversing at the 34 sma. This was on the Monday before the Fed , so I cannot recommend buying it if it moves higher, but anybody can make that decision for themselves (if they want to buy the reversal with a tight stop & try to ride it into 2 p.m. Wednesday). That said, I did not see Green Silver stocks.
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HL was break even after dropping lower. EXK, AG, FSM, etc all dropped with Silver up a lot too, and then tried to recover, so the Silver stocks do not seem to be leading at this time.
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GDX dropped and then moved up by 50 cents, but Gold and Silver were up all day and this just doesn’t look ready quite yet. Take a look at last Wed & Thursday. GDX reversed at the 50sma & surged higher, only to reverse and slice right through the 50sma on Friday. Now we have the Fed Mtg, so all I can say is that GDX is actually in the timing for a dcl, but we do have the Fed ahead.
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I MENTIONED THIS IDEA:
GDX WEEKLY – Nothing actually has changed with Miners, since I pointed this out a few times. GDX could not convincingly breakout here, so a pullback to build energy (into an ICL) could recharge the energy and drain away the sentiment. The Weekly GDX is overbought.
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So I really recommend patience as the Fed Mtg approaches, unless you are short term trading or ‘day-trading’. We have seen slight changes in the Data and this could affect what Chairman Powell says about a future rate cut, and we all know how that affects the markets , especially when they are all in the timing for a dip into a dcl. The markets get heavy. I will discuss Bitcoin below, enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
.ITCOIN –
As a sidenote: FCEL released earnings and did well yesterday.
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Bitcoin dropped overnight and this massive consolidation continues. Even though this can continue to chop around sideways before breaking out, I do see a possible ‘uglier’ scenario. I am holding a basket of Crypto and I know that others are too, so I want to point this ‘uglier’ scenario or possibility out…
Bitcoin could form a massive inverse H&S pattern with the entire 60 day cycle. These are very bullish longterm, but riding it down to a day 60 drop from here would take a couple of weeks and could cause the crypto related stocks to drop considerably, so I wanted to point this out as Bullish, but short term difficult or painful. I don’t know if this will happen or not, but the possibility exists.
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With that said, it is unfortunate that Bitcoin fell overnight, because the Miners look bullishly set up near support. Now they’ll break down or do a shake out.
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MARA at the 50sma.
BTBT reversed right at the 200sma and 20 ema.
