Thursday June 6th
NOTE: Recently I mentioned the Dow Theory, but I also said that we had an ICL in place and we do still go long for the first and even the second daily cycle. You can raise stops as price rises or use mental stops ( Like, “I’ll sell it if it drops below a certain point). Well, so far things remain bullish and when we go long at an ICL I mentioned SOXL, TQQQ, SPXL and other ‘famous’ stocks that often rise out of an ICL reliably like NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, etc. Others also usually follow like TSM, AMD (not yet), etc – so we use our watchlists to find set ups too.
So now lets discuss our markets as we come out of what I think is the final low before a drop into the next dcl. I think that it is the last low in the first daily cycle before the next dcl happens, because it looks like a 5th wave…
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SPX– So we had our ICL. That was the buy or the wave 2 dip & reversal as a buy. Now we clearly see what looks like 5 waves up into the Fed Mtg, so I would GUESS that these markets will dip after the fed, into the next dcl.
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QQQ – The markets gapped open, Filled that gap (& looked weak) and then ripped higher in the afternoon. I see 5 waves here too, so please read the chart. 5 days until the Fed.
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VRT – I saw this chart and thought that this looks like a nice reliable company, right? I checked and each dip to the 50sma was when earnings was released, and then it rallies out. The next Earnings is not due until August and this is a Buy set up. It tags the 50sma, rides the blue 20 ema. Use a stop under recent lows.
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IWM – Small caps are starting to look bullish, so it may help if I give you my watchlist of clean Energy and EV stocks, since I will be away on vacation Friday through next week. I will have daily reports, but I will be in the commenting area less midday.
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BLNK, FCEL, CHPT, solar stocks , etc may be bottoming. This is a base and it is attempting to break out. It’ll be good to keep an eye on that sector. CBAT and WWR are flying. BLNK has higher lows and regained the downward sloping 200sma.
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PERKING UP:
WWR & CBAT took off straight up out of their lows. When this happens you can either catch it early as it plays around the 50ma, or buy the next dip, which will eventually develop with a multi-day sell off and reversal. So I keep an eye on these and a watch list of these EV, Clean Energy stocks. Notice FALSE BREAK OUTS in the past. The sector wasn’t ready, and that MIGHT still be the case, so I don’t but the dip until it stabilizes.
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SAMECHART: Take a look at WWR when it ‘crawled along the 50mna”. The first day that it broke higher would have been a good entry. Well..
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I do see others n my watchlist that look just like WWR & CBAT before they broke higher and ran. Take a look at…
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CHPT (Earnings yesterday, I think)- It looks very similar to WWR 1 week ago, so I check my watch lists, look for these set ups and watch for that initial break higher. I will give you my watchlist, since I am away next week.
THESE ARE LISTS OF MOST OF MY WATCHLIST FOR CLEAN ENERGY AND EV. It is company and price. Save it, add it to your list, etc. You can look up their charts on a 1 year chart and see if tit has a base. Then zoom in on a 3-6 month chart for possible breakout above the 50sma or 200sma, etc. We often have traded QS, JOBY, XPEV, FCEL, PLUG, NIO, IPWR, etc. This list is how I see when they begin to move and I look for set ups or break outs.
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LABU and Biotech stocks have been setting up, and I mentioned that earlier in the week. Biotechs like TWST, GH, NVAX, etc were mentioned in the comments earlier this week…
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TWST was up another 12.45 % yesterday, breaking out & making fast gains after that 2 week pullback. I mentioned TWST earlier this week as it reversed at the 20ema. I mentioned NVAX too, which was up 20% , what might be next…?
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MRNA is set up just like TWST and NVAX were a day or 2 ago, reversing at the 20 ema. This may be ready to continue higher.
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Yesterday I mentioned that Oil dropped as expected, but…
We are only on day 30 of a possible 45-50, so we STILL have plenty of time for this to move lower. I would have to expect a bounce with that much time left, but this still calls for lower prices in Oil.
So I drew a bounce and then likely more downside.
WTIC – Here is the bounce, but I expect more downside.
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I expect the USD to continue lower too. Maybe sideways and drop after the FED?
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GOLD moved higher on Wednesday. This is day 21, so it is holding up nicely, but we have 5 trading days to the Fed Mtg, so it’ll be on day 26 at the Fed. Will we get a dcl into the fed mtg, or a drop into a dcl after the fed to day 32ish?
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SILVER is on day 23. 5 days until the Fed mtg (day 28)
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GDX is very different, since it bottomed before Gold & Silver. 5 days until the Fed, GDX will be on day 35
‘As we watch things play out while we approach the Fed Mtg, you can see how cycles timing might come into play around that time next week too. We could see 5 waves up complete in the General Markets and then they’ll drop into a dcl (?). Precious metals will be ‘in the timing’ of a dcl, so they could form a dcl possibly the week after the Fed Mtg. We can’t be sure at this point, so we just need to watch how things play out. What this means is that trading is ok in the General Markets for a few days, but should be good after the next dcl too. And small caps might be perking up too. The Precious metals sector really is coming due for a dip into the next dcl. I’ll discuss the Bitcoins Pop & Drop price action below. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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REVIEW: This chart was in Tuesdays report, and we had an attempt at a breakout of the short-term downtrend. This was a small pop and drop.
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This is Bitcoin at 7 am today. It could just break through resistance, or it may stall, crawl , or pull back a bit before it can break free. It does look like a bullish set up though.
BTBT is starting to break from a base and if it could get back up to the highs, it is a 100% move, even from this point.
HUT is a pretty good looking base and is just starting to make an attempt at breaking out, so I posted this in the morning yesterday. It can be bought here or if Bitcoin ‘stalls’, it may pull back a bit too.
