Tuesday May 21st
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SPX– Day 21 and the markets have been moving pretty much straight up out of the ICL. We could see a pullback, a back-test of the breakout and 8 ema as a half cycle low, or this can continue higher for a little while more, but things remain bullish at this time. Raise stops and your gains are guaranteed.
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The NASDAQ made slightly new highs and held the days gains a little better than the SPX did. We are seeing a surge in volume with the Nasdaq that I am not seeing with the SPX. I would raise my stops, just in case this becomes distribution over time.
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WTIC – Oil is improving with some sideways chop and a MACD trying to cross upward. At this point it may just be ready for a bounce to the 50sma and then more chop.
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XOP – As Oil sold off back down to the lows and below its 200sma, The XOP sold off too, but not quite as bearishly. CAN this recover? Well, it broke the recent downtrend and…
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THE XOP – In April I was calling for a possible back test of the break out, and…
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At this point, that drop really only looks like that back-test of the recent breakout and seems to have concluded. Price is now slightly above the 50sma too. So Oil stocks and Energy may be ready to move higher again.
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The USD lost the 50sma, but it has now reached the lower level of that channel, which is acting as support so far. This could be the dcl and a bounce will follow or is in progress. This bounce has NOT hurt Gold and Silver so far.
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GOLD #1 Gold spiked yesterday, so that leaves us with 2 ideas (these 2 ideas were already on the table though).
1. Could Gold top here as L.T.? Maybe, but also…
2. Instead of just calling a top, we may get a dip into a half cycle low and then a continuation higher in this 3rd daily cycle, forming a small cup & handle, so we have to let it play out.
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GOLD #2 – I want to point out a couple of other areas where Gold spiked. On a couple of occasions, it did dip and sell down a little, but then it continued higher. In one case it just kept running higher, so for now it is a small spike and we’ll see how this one plays out from day 11,
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SILVER looks very strong after breaking out above that key $30 area. It may have been heavily shorted there, as many expected it to fall.
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GDX-
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Bitcoin and some Crypto-related stocks are covered below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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I want to share a thought that I had:
I mentioned that BITCOIN had formed a triangle by day 56, and I said,
“If we see a breakout, that should identify a dcl.” Using Gold triangles in the past, I then started my count from that apex…so here it would be around day 56.
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So: BITCOIN broke out and made a higher high and a higher low with that triangle, so a dcl was marked at the apex and now we can start another 60 day cycle, most likely higher. Next is the question that crossed my mind…
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BITCOIN– We saw Bitcoin surge last week and yesterday. We are definitely on our way out of the lows, but I asked myself: “If I didn’t put cycle count numbers up, where would I say that the bitcoin low is?” Well, day 42 would be the obvious visible low, so
1. Do I now shift over and start my cycle count there?
2. Or do I do as I have done with Gold and count from the mini-triangle apex breakout?
I think that I will need to at least pay attention to both counts and then see how things play out around the day 30ish time period. That may help me calibrate the count as we approach the more important ‘day 60ish low’.
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I am also eager to see if this runs differently now that we have all of those ETFs in play, and big elephants buying. This next run could be a real eye opener as to how the ETF approvals and the Halving will affect the push toward $100,000. I have had some tell me that they think the ‘halving’ will keep the crypto Miners from running, but I don’t see it that way. CLSK and MARA released very strong reports and think about this…Bitcoin was at $16,000 to $20,000 for part of last year. Crypto Miners did fine. What happens if Bitcoin ( & alt coins) double, triple, quadruple? Bitcoin at $100,000 should really help those miners, even if they mine less Bitcoin for a much higher price.
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ETHEREUM joined the crypto race with a big burst yesterday too.
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MARA dipped down to the 50sma and then reversed and turned green as Bitcoin moved higher yesterday, so I posted this in the commenting area within the first hour of trading & stated that many were doing this. A reversal at support is an easy buy, since your stop is under the support (50sma).
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MARA : That reversal was gaining momentum, now up almost 4% an hour later at 11:30 a.m.
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At noon I showed how these Crypto Stocks were just running straight up. This was MARA at noon time, now at $21.12
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MARA – An hour later MARA is almost at $22, now up 12%.
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MARA was up over 16%, but closed up 14.76%. So this is a nice base that MARA is breaking from, with higher lows and higher highs in place. It is choppy and rough, but once these get going they often do run swiftly. I think that this does show us how these Crypto related stocks (MARA, RIOT, CLSK, HUT, HIVE, MSTR, IREN, BKKT, CIFR, BITF, BTBT, etc etc ) can run with Bitcoin in this next daily cycle.
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CLSK Over a week ago I pointed out that CLSK was a buy in the $15 area, and had strong earnings. It gained 14% yesterday.
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RIOT was up 9% and broke out above the 50sma. The 200sma is overhead and then it could run to the recent highs.
BKKT – In early May I noticed that BKKT did a reverse split and was ‘popping’ up 20% & 16% on days that others weren’t, so I took a small position after they released earnings last week. It was just chopping sideways, but yesterday it just started to pop, so I posted this so that others could put it on their radar. It quickly went from up 3% to up 20%. Well…
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BKKT closed up almost 50%! I took a small starter position because it was choppy, so now I don’t know how I’ll add, unless we get a bull flag, a triangle, or a dip. That is something to watch for, because you can see that since May 1, this has already tripled! Buy the dip, but be reasonable, because these can surge up 50% and drop 20% – Keep it small at first.
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HUT was a buy breaking above the 50sma, and now it is pressing against the 200sma. You can buy it if it ‘crawls’ along the underside of the 200sma, or if it breaks out.
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MSTR is an expensive crypro-related stock, but just take a glance at the left side of the chart. You can see only part of this years run, but that run was from $400 in January to $2000 in March. Buying 5 shares, or 10 shares, or whatever your account can afford reasonably could pay off nicely over time. I posted this chart in the live commenting area yesterday as turning from Red to Green with buyers. It closed up 9%.
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BTBT was surging yesterday too, after releasing earnings last week. I posted this around 2 pm, because it was pushing on the 200sma, and I though that if it pulls back from here or crawls, you can put it on your watchlist. It actually broke out above the 200sma and closed up 21%, so we’ll see what it does today or as the week goes forward.
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IREN WEEKLY This chart was captured last Friday morning as having great volume and great upside potential. It did already have a strong ‘up 30% week’, but it had not broken out yet. I thought that maybe a pullback could be bought. Yesterday it was only up 5%, so it still may be ready to consolidate or dip lower before continuing higher.
