May 11 Weekend Review
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SPX DAILY – After the Fed Mtg and the continuation of discussing that inflation is under control and how we MIGHT even still see a rate cut in 2024, the markets strengthened, and we have an ICL.
1. The down trend was broken and the 50sma was regained,
2. The RSI is at 62 now and things look good.
3. I have drawn the possibility of a back test, but that is not necessary, I simply drew it so that if we sell off for ‘some reason’, you’ll see it as a buying opportunity.
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SPX WEEKLY CUP & HANDLE – So our beautiful weekly cup & handle actually reached its first target and then put in an ICL. It can continue higher.
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SOXX WEEKLY CUP & HANDLE – You measure the depth of the cup and add it to the handle to get a price projection. We do have a massive cup and handle with Gold, so this is good info when we get to Gold. So basically, I look at a cup and handle as also being an A-B = C-D type of a measured move.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil has been choppy and I have been explaining my thoughts in the daily reports when it comes to cycles and cycle counts. We have, most of the time, had very choppy intermediate cycles anyway.
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WTIC WEEKLY – If the 3rd daily cycle just failed, the downside could be significant. If we are just getting an extended daily cycle of 60 plus days, then Oil can go higher. With all of this choppiness, I just think that there are better trades out there.
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USD WEEKLY – I haven’t covered the USD in extensive detail day after day lately, because Gold disconnected from it. They have risen together and they have dipped lower together on the same days, so I’m just stepping back here for a larger view.
Notice that The USD is overbought and it may be on the 3rd daily cycle now, so it looks like it will dip lower soon.
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USD WEEKLY -There was a period of time in 2018-2020 when the USD chopped higher (Blue arrows). Gold rallied strongly at that time and tht seems to be happening again.
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GOLD WEEKLY CUP & HANDLE:
As mentioned, I look at a cup and handle as also being an A-B = C-D type of a measured move.
That move does give me the impression that we still have more upside for an initial target of $2644 to be reached. I want to point out that the left side of the cup is LOWER than the right side, and if I took that height for our measured move, the first leg of this move would likely be complete.
GOLD DAILY – With our extended dip into the last dcl, we lost a channel. This makes me think that the 3rd daily cycle will climb that trendline, but then start to dip down into the next dcl. Will it be R.T. or L.T.? Will it simply become a double top for this intermediate cycle, or can it break to new all-time highs? We do not know yet, but right now Gold is only on day 5 and it looks healthy to me, after reversing on the 34 sma.
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GOLD DAILY – I wanted to point out the last intermediate cycle with the current one. So I am looking at the last ‘4 daily cycle move’ out of an ICL. These 2 won’t be the same, but we can compare it with this current one. In December we did ‘peak’ on that 2nd daily cycles spike and then daily cycle 3 & 4 were sideways choppiness before launching sharply higher. Also that Cycles 3rd daily cycle peaked on day 11. We are on day 5 of the 3rd daily cycle now.
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GOLD WEEKLY – This weekly chart is beautiful and reversed at the 10 week ma this week. That is a bullish characteristic.
We caught that OCT ICL and the current rally and we’ve made great gains with the trading or buy & Hold approach. For some it meant just buying a basket of Miners last October and letting it ride. As tough as that can be during the choppy times, take a look at HMY, EGO, IAG, KGC, AU, AEM, and others that I was recommending throughout this rally and you’ll see very profitable moves. Doubles, triples, and quadruples. For example HMY $2 to $10. EGO $5 to $15. KGC 2.80 to $7.60, etc. The Silver stocks are playing catch up with this current intermediate cycle.
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SILVER WEEKLY #1 – Silver also reversed right at the 10 week ma and Silver surged higher by almost over 7% this week alone, and then pulled back a little by this weeks end. That was also a back test of the breakout.
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SILVER WEEKLY #2– At this point silver is now at the highs of the last 4 years, and when it breaks out it should run swiftly, so I think that we do want to focus a bit more on some of the Silver Miners when that time comes. Of course, some individual miners will run ahead of Silver with good earnings reports and good news, so keep that in mind too, but I’m thinking that SILJ will likely run mostly when this breaks out.
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SILVER WEEKLY #3 – From this view, we did already have our ‘Breakout’ technically, and that was pointed out as it happened, but now we’re at 4-year highs and in the 3rd daily cycle, so we’ll see whether or not Silver wants to consolidate and build energy for that breakout next (in the 3rd & 4th daily cycle) or is it ready now.
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SILVER WEEKLY #4: Just take a look at Silvers run to $50 in 2010-2011. We do NOT want to miss that if or when it repeats.
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GDX WEEKLY -With Gold at new all-time highs, these Miners have some real catching up to do to get back to their former highs. This week we saw a few Miners release their earnings reports and rally (KGC, IAG, BTG, EXK, HL, PAAS and a few others). One would have to believe that with The Gold price increasing from $1800/oz to $2400/oz just since October, their profits are going to continue to increase and the stocks prices should continue higher too.
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GDX WEEKLY – So 2 scenarios using cycle counts would be that we could break out now in the 3rd daily cycle and then back test as drawn above, or we could chop sideways like this and breakout later. The set up is bullish.
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We are still looking at Bullish charts and the bull runs continue to produce good trading and good gains. The set up for Bitcoin and the next bull run there is also very promising, I’ll cover that below. Enjoy your weekend and as always, thanks for being here with me!
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~ALEX
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As a reminder, this was what I wrote in Fridays report:
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BITCOIN: Day 50 actually saw Bitcoin surge higher and now we are on day 51. My expectations have to be for 1 more drop, but as I mentioned in the last few reports, the Crypto stocks could be bottoming ahead of Bitcoin. Yesterday we saw 2 earnings releases that looked quite impressive to me (MARA & CLSK), and these are 2 of the 4 stocks that I pointed out as possibly already starting to bottom.
BITCOIN: Day 51 (Friday) saw Bitcoin actually drop as expected.
Saturdays candle is day 52, and it is that tiny green doji, but its not done forming yet.
So Sunday will be day 53, Monday 54, Tuesday 55, Wednesday 56, Thursday 57, etc .
The last DCL came on day 57, so we’ll just have to look for the lows in real time, but remember that the crypto miners may bottom first. I will be covering all of this in the day to day daily reports. 🙂
