Friday April 26th – The DCL: Are We There Yet?
I am releasing this report at 1:15 a.m. ET, because for some readers in other countries, you may be able to buy Miners while their markets are open in your country. That is my advice, and you’ll see why in this report. Enjoy.
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SPX – I know that you know my expectations were to maybe go short up near the 50sma on a bounce. We could get a 1-2-3-4-5 wave down. The markets gapped down IN A BIG WAY on Thursday after the Jobless Claims and other Data. It gapped down and started to recover and this now looks similar to many of the past ‘bullish higher lows’ after a drop in Orange boxes.
1. Look at January,
2. look at February,
3. look at March, and you will see similar ‘higher low drops’ that ran higher & kept going, so now I have to see how this plays out after this bounce. To short or not to short? That is the question. That said, WHO REALLY CARES! –because THE MINERS LOOK READY TO RUN, and that should be a really good trade!! 🙂
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WTIC – Oil is bullish and is now on day 3 or possibly 50. This can give a steady trade in Oil Stocks and as pointed out in yesterdays report, we already have progress in OKE, APA, ERF, MRO, VLO, NOG, ETC. Some are entering new highs.
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THE USD IS CHOPPING SIDEWAYS and at this point it doesn’t seem to be directly affecting anything.
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NOTE FROM WEDNESDAY: GOLD AT DAY 25 MIGHT BE A DCL: I said…
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GOLD ON WEDNESDAY – We saw a nice reversal at the 20 ema on day 25 yesterday for Gold and if you look at the count on the first daily cycle, you see that it was 23 days if we go by the low, 25 days if we go by the wedge break out. So that means that we are in that shorter timing that has been common lately for a dcl. Yes, this MIGHT be the dcl, confirmation would be follow through higher.
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GOLD – I need to point out that Gold and Silver could hardly be said to have performed excellent on Thursday. They are sideways.
You see that Gold is chopping sideways and Silver did too. Notice though, that often GOLD will start off slow and then takes off higher. We do not have our confirmed DCL yet, but lately I’ve said that the timing is enough for a dcl and that this reversal may be the lows. I DO THINK THAT GOLDS CYCLE LOW IS NOW IN PLACE. I’ll explain.
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SILVER was ‘lackluster’ too. Silver is Not impressive, but if you were reading in the comments yesterday, then you know that Silver Miners were starting to lead the way higher. THAT is bullish and I’ll discuss it further.
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So GOLD is chopping sideways at the 20ema, and Silver is chopping sideways at the 20ema. They did NOTHING SPECIAL on Thursday with US trading.
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The GDX started higher and I grabbed this chart because Gold & Silver were red, and Miners started to run from Red to Green, with good intraday volume. This was at 9:45 a.m. and MANY Miners were perking up.
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1 hour later, Many Miners were now running and GDX had solid volume for 1 hr, broke a downtrend and left the 10sma behind. NEM reported earnings and was flying, but many other Miners were definitely being bought up too, even though GOLD & SILVER were lackluster. THIS WAS A SWING LOW ABOVE THE 10 SMA NOW.
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GDX closed up 3.65%, and you can see the obvious difference between Miners and the Gold & Silver price action above. THIS is signaling that the lows are here and Miners are leading to me. It is still oversold, but volume came in and if people are shorting the Miners thinking that they were about to sell off, they will need to cover those shorts (that means they BUY Miners). That will add fuel to the fire that is now starting to burn.
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In the comments we discussed some of the smaller Silver companies (explorers or Miners) and I was asked about ISVLF.
ISVLF started to run with Silver down? Yes, in fact, it started on Wednesday. This is a bullish set up and take a look at how well these little ones have already been doing ( 10 cents to 28 cents). These act nicely in a basket of Miners.
I always mention AAGFF as one of my old faithful ones that I like to hold. I bought a good chunk and it reversed right off of the 34 sma. It more than doubled over the past 2 months too, but pulled back into the dcl. Well, I grabbed this chart to put in the report, since it was up 7% with Silver weak, but…
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AAGFF closed up 13.58%, with Silver doing nothing.
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AG was lagging, up less than 1%, so I posted this after an hour of trading. I thought that it might POP, but…
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AG is fighting the 10sma, but it did close up 2%. That means that this is still near the lows and a buy in my opinion. When Silver wakes up, AG will run. It too was up about 100% from lows to highs since mid February.
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CDE ran well in Feb – April too, so I saw that it Popped on Wednesday, paused on Thursday, and looked ready to go again. Even though Silver was down at the time, CDE was now up 2%.
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CDE closed up 6% and should still run a lot higher as the sector wakes up from the recent sell off.
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EXK runs, consolidates, runs, consolidates, and…should be ready to run.
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ABBRF was up 10%, yet Gold was stagnant.
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I posted this chart of IAG since it Popped on Wednesday after reversing at the 20ema. This was in my last report as a bullish consolidation holding up near the daily cycle highs. It was up 5% at one point, but closed up 3%, so this is still a low-risk entry with IAG at $3.71 as of the close.
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KGC is a bullish consolidation. Take a look at KGC and you see now deep drop into this last dcl. It is now near the 2024 highs already. or take a look at GOLD and then take a look at KGC, IAG, MUX, AU, HMY, EGO, DRD, etc after Thursdays trading. Miners are off to the races without Gold.
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NEM on Thursday reversed at the 200sma. They would release earnings Thursday morning.
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NEM released earnings and gapped open 4% and by 9:40 it was up $2 or 5.39%.
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NEM closed up 12.46%, but was higher during the day. Obviously Newmonts earnings boosted the Mining sector.
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This week I had discussed buying again. Why? I had been saying that some of the bullish set ups and action with Miners was showing how quickly these can move off of the lows and erase the sell down, so buying was justified, even though we do not have a confirmed swing low in Gold or Silver. Also the timing was favorable, since we are seeing shorter daily cycles in this bull run (less sellers). Well, GDX closed above the 10sma and has a confirmed swing low now, and almost all of the Gold & Silver Miners were already running yesterday with Gold and Silver pushing higher. In addition to that, let me share this one final thought:
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One Important Final thought:
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An observation that I have made is that at the lows, Gold looks weak or tame for a couple of days, and then suddenly you get a very large up day often followed by another one. So please look at this chart- this is as of Midnight on Thursday and that slow bottoming process looks to have started. On Thursday, Miners were already running ahead of Gold & Silver, as though smart money is accumulating. So please look at this chart and read what I wrote about the circled areas.
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WHAT IF GOLD POPS LIKE THAT AGAIN?
If we start our Monday trading and Gold looks like this from an overnight pop on Sunday, how will we be able to buy Miners? They would likely gap open in a big way, and then we might worry about not wanting to chase the move, or we worry about possible gap fill, right? And then it can run away. You want to own some Miners at these lows, and they are starting to leave the station.
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IN MY OPINION, THERE IS NOW NO NEED TO WAIT FOR GOLD TO PUT IN A CONFIRMED SWING LOW, BECAUSE THE MINERS ARENT WAITING, RIGHT?
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Got a Basket?
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Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend!
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~ALEX
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THERE WAS NO CHANGE WITH BITCOIN, so…
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THERE WAS NO CHANGE WITH BITCOIN, so I’ll just review what I’ve said about the current set up again.
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BITCOIN – Now I’m wondering, Is this the only bounce that we will get? Bitcoin is not back at the highs, it was rejected at the 50sma so far. With a failed daily cycle and an expectation that Bitcoin will break the day 30 low, this may be all that we get for a bounce too.
