Thursday April 25th- Caution: Data Release Today
DATA – This is market moving data, if the Markets need a catalyst to rally or sell off. In other words, to give it a push, one way or the other.
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The ‘set up’ for The SPX is such that we could start to sell off if the news today is bad. I have discussed a 5 wave drop possibility
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We may currently have an A-B-C drop in play, but I have also discussed a 5 wave drop possibility as likely too. I saw that wave 3 drop and said that I wanted to short the next drop if we bounce, so I may go short if the data is taken as bad news.
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SPXS – This is the inverse 3x SPX 500 Bear. I have mentioned SOXS and SQQQ also, and I often use SOXS to short, because the Semi’s often move faster.
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WTIC – Oil is a buy and it should be on day 2 of a new daily cycle.
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THE XOP (or GUSH as a leveraged trade) is on day 4 out of the lows, as it reversed off of the 34sma. Yesterday I pointed out a few Oil stocks that are also set up bullishly.
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NOTE: GOLD AT DAY 25 MIGHT BE A DCL:
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GOLD ON WEDNESDAY – We saw a nice reversal at the 20 ema yesterday for Gold and if you look at the count on the first daily cycle, you see that it was 23 days if we go by the low, 25 days if we go by the wedge break out. So that means that we are in that shorter timing that has been common lately for a dcl. Yes, this MIGHT be the dcl, confirmation would be follow through higher.
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All that I wanted to point out here was that lately Gold has had milder & shorter dcl dips than it usually does. Yes, this can bounce and drop to that 34 sma, but we are roughly around day 25. Our daily cycles have been as short as 25-28 days recently, so this is in the area that a dcl can form. We don’t have a swing low yet, but this could be our low. let’s see what happens.
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SILVER – Yesterday I discussed the cycle count in Silver.
We started counting later after that day 25 Pop in Gold, because Silver made a new low after that at day 29. So Silver would only be on day 19 now. As drawn, we may see a small pop and drop to give us a dcl at the 34 sma, but I also mentioned that buying a few miners now may be fine, since they recover very quickly once the bull is running again.
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I SAID THIS ABOUT MINERS:
I DO SEE BULLISH LOOKING MINERS THOUGH. In fact, many look bullish, so if you sold EVERYTHING and are looking to start that basket of miners again? Buying in this area would probably only be slightly painful if we do drop further, but that would be temporary. Let me show you something…
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IAG has chopped sideways and lower for weeks, but in 1 day (yesterday) it started to undo all of that selling. 3 weeks of maybe frustrating choppy selling undone in 1 good day.
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GDX had a small dip lower at the open, but it held at the green 20 ema line and then it rose up and gave us a small follow through day. I’m guessing and drew in a bounce and final drop here too, simply because of the cycle timing, but day 23 COULD be the dcl with a short daily cycle.
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We have a lot of data at 8:30 a.m., so we’ll see if and how Jobless Claims and other data affects the futures at that time. Keep in mind that The Precious metals Sector, when we look at Gold on day 26, is in the area of a dcl for the past milder dcls in this bull market. Enjoy your Thursday trading. 🙂
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I wrote:
BITCOIN – I still hold the view that using ‘cycle analysis’, this was a very easy to see 57 day daily cycle. It is also easy to see that day 57 was broken by the next daily cycle on day 28, 29, & again on day 30. That Should be a failed daily cycle and we should see day 60 dcl lower than day 57 again. AN ANOMOLY would be extreme buying pressure breaking the highs and causing this to just run higher now and not later.
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BITCOIN – Now I’m wondering, Is this the only bounce that we will get? Bitcoin is not back at the highs, it was rejected at the 50sma so far. With a failed daily cycle and an expectation that Bitcoin will break the day 30 low, this may be all that we get for a bounce too.
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DAY 35: Was that all we get for a bounce? Maybe and maybe not. With a failed daily cycle and an expectation that Bitcoin will break the day 30 low, this may be all that we get for a bounce, but there is also still enough time to run to the upper blue line and then roll over too.
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There is also still enough time to run to the upper blue line and then roll over too, bit I am reminded of what this article said about the big buyers or ‘The Whales’ as they are called, are now selling into the rallies. We’ll just have to wait and see until we get closer to day 60.
