April 6th Weekend Review
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SPX DAILY – I reported in Fridays report that we saw a change in character when price dropped & closed below the 20ema with a bearish engulfing. This is the first time that price closed below the 20 ema in months and the MACD showed weakness too. It would seem that we are now in a ‘topping process’. I’ll keep an eye on it, but so far Fridays reversal higher did not push price back above the 10sma. If the selling resumes on Monday, we could start to see a chop lower, signaling that the intermediate cycle would likely have ‘peaked’.
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SPX WEEKLY – As for the weekly chart? This looks like a normal dip & reversal at the 10 week ma so far. The markets are very overbought right now, even on a weekly basis. A gradual pullback will eventually lead to a dcl, then an ICL and a Strong buy for the next couple of daily cycles too.
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WTIC WEEKLY – As expected, we saw more Bullishness in Oil. On a daily chart I mentioned that oil could reach as high as $90 in this daily cycle and now we see that Oil broke out above a 2 year downtrend this week. This will cause gas prices to continue to rise and costs associated with higher Oil / Energy prices will creep in to the consumer. Investing in Oil or Oil Stocks may help (NOG, ERF, MRO, VLO, VET, APA, OKE, etc).
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XOP WEEKLY – I have been showing this triangular formation for a long time. This chart was from my Dec 8th report when a drop to the lower trend line above $120 – $125 would be a buy and then a possible break out would lead to a continuation to that uptrend.
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XOP WEEKLY – The XOP dropped to $125 and then rallied to the breakout area in mid-March. Oil was looking strong, so a breakout was expected.
XOP WEEKLY – We have a solid breakout and when Oil dips down into a dcl, this may ‘back test’ that break out as another buy opportunity when it reverses. We buy GUSH or Oil Stocks to take advantage of the trade.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD has been running up out of a low recently, but a noteworthy fact is that Gold & Silver have not been hindered by progress that it has made. Will the USD break out here ? It actually may not…
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USD WEEKLY – We have seen ‘shorter’ rallies in the past, and the daily cycle is late enough that this could just roll over here at resistance. I would expect that to help to continue Golds rally.
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EVEN WITH THE USD RISING, TAKE A LOOK AT GOLDS RALLY!
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GOLD DAILY – We caught the lows at each ICL. At each ICL all were encouraged to at least buy a basket of Miners to just hold on to for the first couple of daily cycles. If they wanted to trade around it, it was recommended that we ride some miners positions for surprises to the upside, and maybe sell some at the timing for a dcl, and then rebuy. So far we have had an EXCELLENT trade here with Gold running straight up out of those lows this time.
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GOLD WEEKLY – So many people were doubting that we would see Gold break out and that kind of negative sentiment is what causes markets to rally straight up and leave the doubters behind. I was hearing that due to The Crypto/Bitcoin bullishness, there would be no buyers to push gold higher. I was also hearing that Gold is manipulated too much for the Big Boys to allow it to breakout, but look at that chart! No doubters now.
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GOLD WEEKLY LARGE CUP & HANDLE – When pointing out this chart before the break out, I was discussing how Gold used to sell off and trade in the magenta area of that handle (weak), but I was pointing out how now it was recently just hanging up in the yellow area . The selling was less evident to me in 2023-2024. It didn’t sell off as deeply ( to that $1600 area) and Gold was almost always above $1900. That was a good set up for a breakout, and that is what we finally got. We were prepared!
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver was noticeably lagging Gold. Over the last 2 weeks I have been saying that I personally wanted to start loading up more on some of the Silver laggers. Miners like AG, EXK, HL, CDE, FSM, etc, were still near the lows, but I know that Silver can play catch up VERY QUICKLY and take those miners along with it. Well, Silver DID break out above that $26 area that I had as the next resistance. In fact, Silver itself was up 10.38% this week alone. Silver should run to $30 next.
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SILVER WEEKLY – A downtrend was also taken out as Silver surged from $22 to $27.50 this year. This weeks 10% breakout really did help the Silver Miners. In fact…
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How did those lagger silver miners do?
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You may recall me highlighting this set up on First Majestic as quite the bullish wedge. I said that it had Huge potential for ‘Buy & Hold’, and many of us actually bought it lower in the $4+ area for our baskets…
AG WEEKLY: What a week for First Majestic holders, since it was up over 33% and then pulled back a bit to ‘Up 32+%’.
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AAGFF: I mentioned and some of you may recall that we bought AAGFF in 2020 and it ran from pennies to $1.37, so I mentioned that I bought it again. AAGFF was up 42% this week, along with SLVRF up 72% (Wow) and SSVRF up 36%.
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CDE: Was up 29% this week alone,
FSM was up 26%,
EXK was up 17.5%, etc etc. Congrats to the Silver stockholders!!
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The GDX ETF made a highly visible breakout too.
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It was another awesome week of trading and investing. If you bought and held a basket of miners, your entire years subscription price was easily paid for in this golden Bull run. 🙂 . The Precious Metals Sector really paid off this week, with many miners up 20% or more. We are in the 2nd daily cycle, so there should still be more room to run. And if things remain bullish? The 3rd daily cycle could be where this intermediate cycle peaks. That next pullback into an ICL may even be milder than usual, since in a bull market like this, buyers buy the dips more often and selling dries up more quickly. We’ll see, but right now the upside for the Miners has been and looks to continue to be very rewarding. I’ll cover Bitcoin below, enjoy your weekend everyone, and thanks for being here!! 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has had a very strong run up and I think that we are simply seeing a consolidation of those gains. I am starting to see a triangle form, and a 30 day time period may provide enough time for a completion to that consolidation.
BITCOIN WEEKLY: Bitcoin has had a very strong move right back up to the former highs, so again, it makes sense that it might have to stall and consolidate those gains. That can happen with a bull flag or a bullish pennant.
