March 23rd Weekend Review

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SPX WEEKLY – We saw a really steep climb out of the Covid crash in 2020. As it climbed up and along the blue 10 week ma, it came due for an ICL after roughly 6 months. Instead of a deep drop, notice how it chopped & dropped in a sideways manner for a few months (red box). That brought it over to the 30 week ma for a milder ICL. We could see that after the 3rd daily cycle peaks too. This has been a strong run.

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SOXX WEEKLY– I have been using the SOXX because it has a little more of a dip into the recent dcl. This was a nice Cup & Handle, and I have the upper target price projection drawn with a red dotted line. That is where the 3rd daily cycle could peak.

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MJ DAILY – On March 18th I used this chart and I mentioned that the MJ Stocks were starting to pop up & out of their bases.  I also listed stocks that I was interested in for the same reason.

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 MJ WEEKLY– By the end of this week, MJ the ETF was up almost 20% and…

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MSOS WEEKLY – The other MJ ETF is climbing along the 30 week ma. This looks like rounding bases forming on these ETFs.

 

ACB DAILY– So I pointed out ACB at 10:30 a.m. on March 20 and it was trying to break out and close above that 50sma. It was around $3.77 …

 

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ACB DAILY pushed up to the highs of the day…

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ACB DAILY -It closed above the 50sma with big volume, and…

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ACB surged on Friday, up 26.5 % in one day.

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CGC was also trying to break out above the 50sma and volume was growing by 10 a.m..

 

 

 

CGC Popped on Friday too, and it was up 15% when I first say it, then 30%, and here it was up 48%…

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SNDL was also up 22% after releasing earnings at the end of the week.

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I pointed out VFF, TLRY, and OGI too.  All made big gains…

So this sector has caught fire, with VFF up 40% for the week.  I was able to trade this sector last week and on Friday it really paid off with most of these up 20-70%.  Others (Like GRWG & CRLBF for example) may follow and take off too, while a ‘Buying the dip’ opportunity may present itself as these pull back in the future.  I will keep an eye on it.

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WTIC DAILY– Oil broke out and has pulled back to the 10sma. It is bullish and Oil stocks are not pulling back. In fact…

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XOP WEEKLY – I am starting to see the XOP break out from this triangular pattern that I have been pointing out. So Oil stocks have been a buy and if this breaks out, it could really start to move, so this sector may become a buy the dip area too. Note: I personally have not traded it lately, since there have been other areas that I liked better, but check out charts of OKE, NOG, MRO, VLO, etc and they look good. Laggers are WTI, VET, CPE, APA, etc. They may follow.

 

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THE USD broke out on Friday. THIS really looks like a Bullish development, but it doesn’t seem to be hurting the Miners ( I saw several go from Red to Green on Friday, and I’ll point those out below). We just have to watch how things unfold between the USD & Gold, Silver, and The Miners, but right now GOLD is bullish, and I’ll discuss that next.

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The USD may be running up to back test that channel just a little higher and then roll over.

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GOLD DAILY – Gold is bullish because we have a strong move out of an ICL, and

1. Whether we have a short daily cycle with a dcl at the pennant or

2. Whether we have a longer daily cycle with the dcl ahead with this back test, we have a strong rally and a right translated daily cycle. GOLD IS BULLISH.  Please read the chart.

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GOLD DAILY – As mentioned, we don’t know if we have the dcl or it lies ahead, but it doesn’t really seem to matter. Both ideas could have Gold back test the breakout of the pennant.

 

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GOLD WEEKLY – I do hate seeing that candle, since they are often reversals, but this is the first daily cycle, so it should not peak here. I am pointing out with a light blue arrow a larger reversal candle that only pulled back for 1 week.

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GOLD WEEKLY – I have circled topping candles that are similar to what we have now, but this was a move out of an ICL and it should not peak here, so I also have (on the far left) Circled a similar candle that was only a midway point.

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This could be a dcl at the Pennant break out and we may be on day 3 with a back test as shown, but I now think that this is a bit less likely. Why? It is because of Silver…

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SILVER actually did what I expected and that was that it should run back up to the highs, but I did notice something Thursday with Silver and that is this:

I do NOT see a dcl with Silver. This is why I am thinking that Golds dcl may be just ahead too. Silver is due for a dip.

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THIS WAS IN FRIDAYS REPORT:

I do NOT see a dcl, so we could see something like this if the USD continues higher and Silver dips lower. Please ignore that it lands in ‘May’ on this chart, I just wanted to draw it clear enough to see the downside target. I am only talking about maybe a 5-8 day dip to get us near day 33.

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SILVER WEEKLY – Now we get to the weekly chart and we see that Silver has hit a resistance area too, so a pullback is likely to continue in Gold and Silver next week. This can also just crawl along the top too, preparing to breakout.

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GDX WEEKLY – Interestingly, The GDX ETF is also at resistance and can crawl sideways or pull back before breaking out. We have a doji candle on the weekly chart.

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As mentioned, some Miners were GREEN midday Friday. I posted this comment on Friday and some did sell down a little by the close, others did not.

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Lots of green Miners
AUST, GATO, EQX, EXK (up 5%), ASAU, NG, CDE, SVM, NAK, GORO, PZG, VZG

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THIS WAS EGO WITH THE USD UP & GOLD DOWN

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THIS WAS NAK WITH THE USD UP & GOLD DOWN

So we still have a very bullish report with the General Markets, Oil , Gold, Silver, and Miners.  Now we add The USD (that was a bit unexpected) and The MJ Sector has come to life. I also have been reporting that Bitcoin may have bottomed on day 57 or 60, and the Crypto related stocks have reflected that too, so we’ll take a look at that below. I hope all are having a good weekend!

~ALEX

BITCOIN – I think that we are on day 3 on Saturday, with the dcl on day 57. Even if that was not the case and the dcl lies ahead, the downside seems limited with fairly reliable 60 day cycles. Also, I pointed out that Bitcoin dropped $3000 on Thursday and crypto stocks were green, that is a bullish development. On Friday Bitcoin dropped another $3000, and WULF was green and the other crypto stocks were only down 2-3% (usually -10%), so this sector seems to be stabilizing in this area too. I do believe that we have Another Bullish Sector.