March 16th – The Weekend Review
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ON FRIDAY I STATED THAT I AM EXPECTING A MILDER DIP INTO THE DAILY CYCLES LOW.
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SPX DAILY – So far we are still holding above that 20 ema, where I’ve mentioned that you could put your stop on a run out of the last dcl. At this point, I think that we will see a mild dip and
1. Some may wish to just ride it out. If so, they could lower their stop under the 50sma, and possibly just stay in the trade. Or
2. For safety sake, some may wish to keep a stop at the 20ema. That simply means that you would need to get back in after the dcl forms.
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SPX WEEKLY– The last 2 weekly candles were indecision candles and to be expected when we are ready for a dip into a dcl.
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XBI WEEKLY – Biotechs had a strong run out of their lows (& out of a base), but they did start to pull back and the XBI back tested the 10week ma. This may be all of the selling in this sector or we could drop a bit further as the SPX, NASDAQ, and SOXX pull back into a dcl. Many smaller biotech stocks actually still gave traders gains. Take a look at a couple of my favorites like AEON, RNA, ABEO, etc
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Side note: I’ve noticed that some of the former runners that ran with COVID in the year 2020, and then died off and sold off as Covid died, are now possibly starting to base and break from their bases post earnings. If so , they may start to run higher again, especially since this is post-earnings price action. You may want to keep an eye on these or just try a small by & hold. I am talking about MRNA, NVAX, PFE, BNTX, etc. Let’s look at 2 of those…
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MRNA WEEKLY – Down to $100 from almost $500 during the covid days, MRNA seems to be basing out. The MACD & RSI have been rising on a weekly chart, and volume is popping. It may be ready to start to recover.
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NVAX WEEKLY – NVAX ran from $3.50 to $325 during covid as a vaccine developer. WOW! It then gave it all back when Covid died down. I‘ll need to read about what they are up to lately, (or I can wait for Ed to update us in the commenting area, since he is brilliant with these biotech companies 🙂 ). Why should I read up on NVAX? Because after their recent earnings, they Popped with big volume, and this weekly chart is quite bullish looking.
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WTIC WEEKLY – We were watching Oil chop along the 50 week ma, and now it has broken out on a daily and weekly basis. I think that Oil will now push higher and Oil stocks have been leading the way. Let’s look at the XOP…
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XOP WEEKLY – In January I posted this and it was a buy at this low in a bullish triangle formation. Oil & Oil Stocks were still choppy, so it was difficult to buy and hold, but this was thought to be the lows in the pattern. The XOP was $128 and Gush was mentioned as a leveraged buy too.
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XOP WEEKLY – Oil has been very choppy at the lows, but you can see that the XOP went from that January low of $128 to the top of the pattern at $148. This weeks move was the bigger weekly move after a choppy move higher, and now this will either stall or break out. A breakout would be a continuation of that long run up into the triangle. A rejection could cause a drop to the lows and a continuation of this consolidation. We DO still have room at the apex for further consolidation.
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USD DAILY – The USD is still pretty much chopping sideways, although it did have one pop with the release of the PPI Numbers this past week. That pop was rejected at the 50sma though and price continues to chop. A small push higher could give gold a small push lower.
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USD WEEKLY – A small push higher to the 30 week ma could push Gold down into the next daily cycle low.
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GOLD DAILY– Gold is on day 22 and I have explained this set up quite clearly in the weekday reports. It does look like a bullish pennant or it may be a bull flag forming here, to give us a stealth dcl over time. Some daily cycles have bottomed at day 25-28 lately, many others lasted into day 33. Either way, we are getting closer to a low every day. Let’s Stay Frosty my friends!
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Do you see that drop into the dcl in October on the left side of the chart? That was a $95 drop. KEEP THAT IN MIND…
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GOLD WEEKLY – A back test from here would only be an $60 drop from here into a dcl.
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Did you notice that as Gold has been dropping into that pennant formation or bull flag formation, SILVER has slowly been continuing its move higher? A while back I stated that it would be normal bullish action for this to run back to those prior Dec highs (especially since Gold was already above its December spike high).
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ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A LONG OR SHORT DAILY CYCLE? 26 days? or 35 days? I have said in my report that we should be able to tell next week.
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GDX reached a similar height or rally out of the lows length. It will begin to drop into a dcl when Gold does, and that dip may already be starting with a bull flag in Gold. If we have a short daily cycle, this will likely dip. CAN THIS RUN UP and then pull back? It could, because we don’t know if this will be a 26 day daily cycle, or a 35 day daily cycle. I’ll draw that next.
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CAN THIS RUN UP and then pull back? At day 22 for Gold, this cannot be ruled out if we have a longer 33+ day daily cycle.
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GDX WEEKLY– This could be a temporary topping candle. We’ll know next week.
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The General Markets, Oil and The Precious Metals ‘set-ups’ remain bullish, but we are expecting a dip into a dcl for the General Markets and possibly Gold & Silver, so we will watch for those dips, and those dcls will be a ‘Buy the Dip’ opportunity. I’ll discuss Bitcoin below. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak with me and have a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN had a reversal at day 52, but I discussed that it is too early to be a dcl so I would expect possibly a bounce and then a deeper dip into a dcl (maybe an a-b-c down).
BITCOIN – I just wanted to show you Bitcoin 2021 in this report as a visual, because it also put in a reversal at day 50, which is too early for a dcl. Price chopped sideways and then sold down.
BITCOIN SATURDAY: So far we are not seeing the bounce on day 53, but price may tag that support again and then bounce. I still expect lower prices that break under that support over time. As Bitcoin dropped on Friday, Crypto stocks did what I mentioned I’d be looking for-they started to resist selling. This means that MAYBE, POSSIBLY, WE’LL SEE… Crypto stocks may stabilize as Bitcoin sells off, and they may run again with the next run.
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BITCOIN – So this is an idea of what we may expect by day roughly 60.
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AND THIS WAS IN MY FRIDAY REPORT:
Here I am just copying/pasting the last Bitcoin dcl at the green arrow where we are now. That drop also started with a large red candle too, but then the selling slowed down & it just chopped lower. This is just to give a visual of what we may see if we get another milder drop into the next dcl too. I do wish to add that we MIGHT get a deep drop too. That MACD is very overextended.
