Friday March 15th – Stay Frosty My Friends!
I WANT TO STAY FROSTY / STAY ALERT to the upcoming buying opportunities, so this report will focus on that. And hey, It’s Friday, so if you’d like a frosty beverage at the end of your day, that’s up to you 🙂 For now, let’s really take a good look at our current market set ups.
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 The DATA seems a little less influential for today, but since we are due for a dcl, and we did start to dip lower on Thursday with data that never hurt it before, we may simply see a continuation lower.
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THE SPX closed lower, but it did also bounce off of that 10sma, so is this finally the start of the drop that we have expected, or another bounce coming our way? Well, I just want to say this:
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Well, I just want to say this: As time goes by, the amount of time left for a deeper drop is running out. We may only get a mild dip, similar to what we saw after the first daily cycle. The last dcl didn’t even touch the 34 sma, it barely broke below the 20 ema with a 4 or 5 day mild selloff. This one might be mild too, so price would MAYBE tag the 34 sma or a break of the 20 ema.
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
WTIC – Well look at that! Oil Popped almost 3% on day 26, now let’s see if it can finally get some follow through higher.
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WTIC – Yes! we finally got a little follow through to the Pop higher on Wednesday. It seems to have picked a direction and stopped chopping sideways.
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THE USD popped with the PPI Numbers. We have a dcl and now we have a little strength in it too. Gold pulled back with the USD pop. Gold may be ready for a dcl dip if the USD rises to that 20sma.
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GOLD – So Gold dropped on day 21 (Spot Gold) with that USD pop. We do still have a possible bull flag or bull pennant forming, and we are only on day 21, so we do have a little more time to chop—or—drop. Let’s discuss that…
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GOLD – Since we have some time left in this daily cycle, we could consolidate up high like this, and put in a dcl in the area that we are in now. This could happen if we don’t have a long daily cycle, but we continue to just have a 25-28 day daily cycle.
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GOLD – If we have a longer daily cycle, like the old 32 or more day ‘daily cycles’ that we used to have, we could get a drop to the 50sma. Please see the left side of the chart and notice that a drop to the 50sma happened with the October to November first daily cycle. It was roughly a 10 day drop (2 weeks), so this is also a possibility from day 21.
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SILVER is climbing the 8 ema and will likely mimic Gold, but in a slightly different way. If Gold puts in a bull pennant, Silver may just climb or chop higher to the former highs of December.
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GDX – At this point, these 2 topping areas look similar, but that can change if Gold or Silver climbs higher, so we need a little more to see how this develops. The main point here is that if it dips lower like it did in December, WE WANT TO BUY THAT DIP.
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So at this point, we also see The GDX climbing the 8 ema. I think that if the GDX ETF breaks that 8ema/10sma line, we could be dipping into a dcl. We want to buy that dcl.
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At this point in time, I think that the focus should be on the future for most of us, and I want to explain what that means according to the recent set ups. I am talking about The General Markets, The Precious metals, and maybe Bitcoin. Oil is in the middle of a move and could go higher before a dcl is due. So let’s discuss the set ups briefly here, and what that may mean for the future buying opportunities.
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1. The 2nd Daily Cycle for the General Market is getting late, and we are due for a dip into a dcl. That dip may be mild, since we are now running out of time for a much deeper dip, so I want to be alert to that idea as mentioned in this report. That said, with this 2nd daily cycle being as bullish and right translated as it is, it might even change how one plays the current rally. There may not be a good reason to sell into the dip, since it may be mild and reverse to new highs relatively quickly.
 So if someone that went long at the last dcl (QQQ, SOXX, SPY, or NVDA, MSFT, AMD, etc) and has been riding with a stop at the 20ema, or if you have a strong & steady stock moving higher, you may just choose to ride it out (That is up to you). Notice how the last dcl on this chart reversed quickly. That could repeat.
2. The Precious Metals set up may be slightly different than the General Markets, simply because we don’t know if we are still going to be seeing shorter 25 day daily cycles(?), or will we see 33 day daily cycles. Understand that THAT difference could make up 2 weeks of trading if we bought early at day 25 of 33. At the same time, we don’t want to miss a day 25 low if that is all we get, so we really need to Stay Frosty going forward in this sector. We are at day 22 for Gold Spot. So what do we do?
 I have already mentioned from the start that holding a basket of Miners will protect you from missing a runaway move higher. A basket is held right through the first 2 daily cycles and may be sold part way through the 3rd daily cycle. Riding a basket through the first daily cycle may hurt a little during a dip to a dcl, if it looks like the one that we had in December, but a Bull Market 2nd daily cycle always breaks out to new highs, so you simply add on that dip. And again, we still don’t know if this will be long or short. If it is 33 days long, look at the possibility that I drew here. The dcl may be in this current price area as support.
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So as time goes on into next week, I really want to monitor these 2 sectors for signs of a dip and signs of a possible dcl developing. If Gold & the Miners do rally higher, we may be seeing a longer daily cycle. The USD seems to have put in a dcl, and I would think that that would stall Gold for a short period of time though. Time will tell.
Bitcoin is coming due for a dcl too, so I will briefly discuss that below.
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 Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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IN THURSDAYS REPORT FOR BITCOIN:
This is a strong bull run on day 51 of roughly 60!
 Yesterday I mentioned that I would love to see one of those Bitcoin slam downs that leads to an ICL. At the same time that it is dropping, I’d like to see Crypto related stocks start to resist the selling and put in a choppy bottom while Bitcoin is still selling off lower.
BITCOIN dropped over 8% and then bounced off of support. That is bullish price action, but knowing how reliable Bitcoin has been with cycle timing, I would say that we could be starting the topping process here at day 52. I want to watch what happens to the Crypto-related stocks with this dip, since they have already been dropping and MIGHT, MAYBE, POSSIBLY could set up for a trade when the Bitcoin dcl is in place.
Here I am just copying/pasting the last Bitcoin dcl at the green arrow where we are now. That drop also started with a large red candle too, but then the selling slowed down & it just chopped lower. This is just to give a visual of what we may see if we get another milder drop into the next dcl too. I do wish to add that we MIGHT get a deep drop too. That MACD is very overextended.
