March 9th Weekend Report
SPX DAILY – We are on day 43 with a new high and a strong reversal. We are due for a dip into a dcl, so this may be the start of a sell down. Next week may give us a choppy sell down and we’ll look for a swing low to form near the 34sma or 50sma.
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NASDAQ DAILY – The NASDAQ gave us a bearish reversal too, and one of the Nasdaqs biggest leaders…
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NVDA gapped open by about $25, rallied higher and then the sellers took profits. This is a heavy volume bearish engulfing and should have follow through selling next week.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil has chopped sideways for several weeks and I pointed out that resistance seems to be the 30 week ma. Until Oil closes comfortably above the $79.50 area for a few days, this chop may continue.
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USD WEEKLY – I also mentioned early in the recent rally that my target for the USD was the $105 area, and that is where we would see if resistance rejects the USD. So far the price was rejected there and let me show you why this is now quite bearish for the USD.
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Why is this quite Bearish?: For starters, this is only week #10 out of that low.
1. We saw a peak on week 7 in that $105 area, and that would be quite left translated unless a new high is formed.
2. A new high will not happen, and you’ll see why when we get to the daily charts, so basically we have a peak at week 7
3. An intermediate cycle can have around 20 weeks per cycle (give or take, it does vary), but that would leave possibly up to 10 more weeks of downside. That is bearish. Now to the daily chart…
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USD DAILY –
1. We are now on day 50, so we know that we had a dcl in there somewhere. I’m guessing that day 18 could be the dcl, but it really isn’t clear.
2. The important point is that no matter which dip that dcl is, I chose day 18 as the lowest dip at that time, and even it was broken this week. That means that we definitely have a failed daily cycle so we should expect that those 7-10 weeks that are remaining will be bounces lower.
3. That is usually a reversal candle on Friday. If we get a dcl & bounce here, Gold could dip into its own dcl too. You want to buy that dip.
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GOLD WEEKLY – We have a very clear break out where price hit above $2200, and that was a $100 move for Gold last week. With a huge multiyear consolidation like this, we could see a trend higher through 2024. Miners should play catch up and do very well this year (They are already doing pretty good).
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver has been extremely choppy, but once it breaks out, I really think that it could accelerate to the upside. EXK, HL, CDE, AG,FSM, etc moved up & out of their lows this week and tagged on 10-15 % each for the week. Silver is still oversold on a weekly basis.
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CDE WEEKLY – CDE, for example, was up over 15% last week, so if you bought a basket of Miners on Monday, you had a good week.
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GDX WEEKLY – The Miners have been extremely choppy too, but this is a bullish pattern if it breaks out higher and runs. We are still in the first daily cycle so this can run much higher.
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GDX WEEKLY – This is just 1 example of how a couple of daily cycles could play out. One rally would lead to the downtrend line, and the next could give us a breakout after the dcl is in place. This also could just run straight up and break out, so holding a basket of miners has been paying off and can continue to pay off over time.
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Interestingly, all of the sectors mentioned above are bullish except for the USD. The General Markets are extremely strong & also very right translated, so that dip into a dcl can be bought. Oil is bullish but choppy and it has been somewhat frustrating without the ability to push higher. The USD has a failed daily cycle and Gold broke out from a multiyear consolidation to lead into new all-time highs. We bought in early and we can just ride and add on dips or add at the next dcl. It will be exciting to see how these Miners might do as Gold trades even higher. Their bottom line & profits are linked to the price of Gold, so their product is gaining value on a regular basis. When we start to pull back into that dcl, I will have some more buy set ups in my daily reports.
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Enjoy your weekend, and thank you for being here!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN DAILY – Bitcoin is on day 45 and the dips come roughly around day 30 & 60, so that means that we have another 3 weeks or so in this daily cycle until that day 60(ish) dip comes along. This run has been VERY strong, and we are now at all-time highs. This can keep going higher, or it may start to chop. IF IT CHOPS FOR 3 WEEKS…
IF IT CHOPS FOR 3 WEEKS, that may be enough time to add a small handle to this new cup, but it would be a very short looking handle on a weekly basis, since it would only be 3 candles wide. If we then had a dip and a weaker daily cycle, it could look like this blue line. We’ll see, but Bitcoin has been very strong and again, it may just continue higher.
SAME CHART: So notice that Bitcoin rallied for the last 2 weeks, straight up…
With Bitcoin up for 2 weeks, many Crypto Stocks like MARA dropped. This dropped form $33 to $21, but it may just be a consolidation and they’ll join in again later. CLSK is actually looking good right now, but most are not following bitcoin at all.
RIOT dropped for 2 weeks, and I’m talking about $18+ to under $12, but again, this may be a larger consolidation for another move higher.
