Friday February 9th – Bit Miners
Trading was excellent yesterday and hopefully we get another round of ‘follow-through’ on Friday. Even though the NASDAQ & SPX were not up that much, almost all of the recent stock picks continued higher, and some are making good gains day after day. Bitcoin also broke out, as mentioned in yesterdays report, and this time the Crypto stocks had heavy volume as they followed that breakout & pushed higher by 10-20%+. Let’s review the charts…
.
SPX – Still Bullish. The General Markets continue to melt upward and on day 23, this can continue, but eventually we will start to see choppiness and a dip into a dcl (maybe around day 35+).
.
YESTERDAY I POINTED OUT THAT SEMICONDUCTORS WERE LAGGING AND MAY CATCH UP: I Wrote…
.
SOXX & SOXL – Did you notice that The NASDAQ & SPX are at new daily cycle highs, but the Semiconductors are lagging? I’d like to see this play catch up for a couple of days, because SOXL can move up 5-10% on good days. This could run to the upper trend line and make some decent gains. $35 to $40ish is 15%.
.
THE SOXL was up about 8% at one point, but pulled back a bit into the close as a 5% gain. It can continue higher.
.
Also among the other stock picks like AMZN, GRPN, GCT, ZWS, PAGS, etc. that I had in a recent report with this pic, we had my old favorite CVNA…..
I have been pointing out one of my favorite trades as CVNA (which was lagging by Feb 5 here), but I said that it is a buy if it beaks this trend line & 50sma…
CVNA broke out and was up 10%, then paused, then popped another 9% yesterday. Congrats if you caught this one, because it always does seem to give good 1 day gains as it runs higher. I mentioned that this can run to former highs and make a move from $40 to over $60. This may ‘pause’ or it may nit, but it should continue higher.
WTIC – Oil made its last low on day 35. In the past that has been a little early, but yesterdays move was over 3% and the volume looked good. It also looks to have capitulated into that low, with a heavy volume drop, so Oil MIGHT have a dcl. UCO & USO looked good, you can try to buy with a stop around the 50sma, or see if it pauses and crawls along the 200sma and buy then too.
I checked out The XOP and it is pinned under the 50 & 200sma, but it looks ready to break out. It has a higher low and is usually bottoming before Oil. Oil stocks may be ready to come out of the 2nd higher lows here too (Gush was the leveraged ETF trade for Oil Stocks).
The USD did not change much.
GOLD did not change much and I’ve been saying that I am impressed with the strength that Gold has. Notice that it is mid-way into the 4th daily cycle and yet there is a lack of violent moves (lacks volatility) as it still lingers up near the highs and around the 50sma in the 4th daily cycle. That is not common, it is impressive, and adds to my feelings that this is going to break out to all new highs after the next shake out ICL. This will drop lower though, before breaking out.
SILVER actually popped yesterday and has MACD divergence and a higher low in this daily cycle, but I still do not expect it to break above the 50sma. If it does, that would actually be pretty bullish and Silver Miners might start to react. We should keep our eyes on that, but I do mainly expect another drop into an ICL.
GDX – With Silvers Pop and Golds strength, the Miners are still dropping into their next low.
.
So everything Bullish remained bullish and our stock picks are extending their gains. Bitcoin actually broke out, so I mentioned that in yesterdays report, but the crypto stocks caught fire yesterday too. That was a bullish surprise, and the sector looks to have turned bullish again. ‘Surprises to the upside’.
.
My only stock that I owned yesterday that was red in my account was ROKU, but it is not bad. I bought it yesterday and it simply had one of those days where it ‘paused’, possibly similar to what CVNA did. So ROKU had a doji, but it is still fine, that may just be a 1 day pause. Note: ROKU does have earnings on Feb 15.
.
~ALEX
.
YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THAT THIS BREAKOUT LOOKED REAL: I said what you see below, and notice the yellow lines that I drew on the chart…
.
BITCOIN – This breakout could have legs.
We had a sideways consolidation after a run out of the lows, and the length of that first run can usually repeat in length for the next run, after breaking from a pennant. WULF and MARA were only up 2%, RIOT was up 4%, which is odd for this sector on such a nice breakout, but a few other crypto stocks were up a little bit more. I am keeping my eyes on this area today too.
BITCOIN – I said that I was keeping my eye on that area, and it continued to push higher, and Crypto stocks gapped open, dropped to fill the gaps, and then with heavy volume started to run higher. Many were still near the lows, but they stretched out 10-20% and more.
,
THIS IS BITCOIN AT 6 am ET. and this is suddenly no longer having tiny choppy days. It is stretching out higher, and followed that path that I drew yesterday for a pennant break out. Notice that when they got the ETF approval, it spiked and dropped and sold off. Bitcoin is back at the price level of the day it was approved, and that is a sudden quick recovery from that pennant. Lets look at a couple of Crypto stocks…
I WROTE THIS IN YESTERDAYS REPORT:
.
MARA had strong volume right out of the gate. It gapped open, tried to drop and close that gap, but then took off with an intraday reversal. Most did that. Even if you bought it when it was up 3%, it closed up 23%, but this is where it gets hard to find an entry on these. They can just gap & go, or they can also drop 10% and not be damaged at all.
1. I drew this as a possible A-B-C down, and if it remains bullish, it can now do a 5 wave run higher.
2. That itself might be a large inverse H&S . Remember, MARA used to trade at $80 and if Bitcoin does what I think it will in 2024, MARA could be a lot higher than that this year. Imagine something like $15 to $120 in 2024?
I also wrote in the report about WULF, because they were only up 1-2% on Wednesday: I mentioned that I was watching that resistance (50 & 200sma right overhead at $1.79).
WULF gapped open above that $1.79, and then just extended those gains too. It was up 9% for a while, but closed up near the highs of the day, up 18%. So this was also a bullish breakout when it gapped over the 50 & 200sma.
.
We do still have some laggers, because many of these did not run when Bitcoin moved up and formed that Pennant. I don’t think that they’ll be near the lows for much longer if Bitcoin continues higher though.
.
Take a look at ANY for example: It moved up 10%, but it also found support at the 50 & 200 sma. Notice how it ran in December. It started slow at 50 cents, but doubled, tripled, quadrupled.
.
ARBK was a lagger too, and I remembered that it used to have 20% and 30% up days in December, so even though it closed up 20% yesterday, it may still have a lot of upside over time.
.
IS THIS THE RUN? Or MORE CONSOLIDATION?
.
Other laggers still near the lows could be HIVE, EBON, SOS, SDIG, HUT, and more. This is tricky though, because it is hard to find an entry if they gap up again. It is also hard to know if this is just forming a choppy bottom like they have before (The box), or is this the next leg up?
.
I think it will depend on what Bitcoin does as it approaches the ‘ETF Approval highs’.
Does Bitcoin break & run? Or will it double top & Consolidate? It is hard to say, but as of yesterday, MARA, RIOT, WULF, and a few others really did look like they are on their way higher. I’m going to try to stay invested and ride it until I can see if this is more consolidation at the lows, or the next run higher. If it is the next run higher, I’ll add on dips and put those buy areas in the reports too.
