Thursday February 8th – Jobless Claims
We do have some DATA that affects the General Markets, but as you’ll see, lately the surprises have been to the upside. Let’s take a look at our Charts…
1. The first 2 days out of this 1/2 cycle low (day 18 & 19) were last Thursday and Friday, so that is how the Data affected the markets last week. Other Thursdays were higher after the jobless claims report was released too, but…
2. It also should be noted that last Thursday was also Post Fed price action & jobless Claims.
3. Right now The SPX is on day 22 and it does still have some time to push higher.
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NASDAQ – I drew this as a possible a-b-c up, followed by another a-b-c up that still needs to complete. It also could be drawn as…
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NASDAQ – It also could be drawn as a bit of a sloppy 5 wave move higher. My point is that this can continue higher, and we do have a little more time left before we’ll need to start to dip into the next dcl. Yes—it can just ‘peak’ at any time around day 20+and start to chop lower, but so far these markets have been in a bull run with surprises to the upside.
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SOXX & SOXL – Did you notice that The NASDAQ & SPX are at new daily cycle highs, but the Semiconductors are lagging? I’d like to see this play catch up for a couple of days, because SOXL can move up 5-10% on good days. This could run to the upper trend line and make some decent gains. $35 to $40ish is 15%.
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WTIC – Oil is bouncing and this could possibly be a dcl, right translated with a day 30 peak, however most of you know that we have seen Oil put in 45-50+ daily cycles, so I don’t fully trust this bounce and Oil has been choppy anyway. The next chart is what I feel we should see…
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WTIC –
1. I have repeatedly shown Oil having 50-day daily cycles, so one more bounce and a low after day 45 makes sense to me.
2. That would STILL be a Right translated first daily cycle with a day 30 peak, so that dcl can be bought (as frustrating as oil has been, the 2nd daily cycle make rally out of this base).
3. You can still buy lows like this as a trade, but I am not trading this right now.
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THE USD is moving out of an ICL, and I have been saying that it could be choppy and make its way up to the 105 area. As it does, Gold would dip. It might go higher than 105, but we do have a trend line that falls in that area.
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So then when I look at GOLD, I am impressed that it is still holding up above that $2000 area, while we are roughly midpoint in the fourth daily cycle. I am hoping to see that the next drop into the next ICL leaves Gold above the last ICL.
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SILVER is not holding up like Gold. I have been pointing out that Silver has been weaker, choppy, and selling down. I expect that to continue, despite the occasional bounces that we have been seeing.
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GDX – The Miners are in the same boat as Silver: a boat that is slowly sinking despite the occasional bounces.
Once we get to the lows and find that ICL though, I believe that Gold will break to all new highs, and Silver and the Miners are known to be able to put in a very fast game of catch up! I want to buy that low (ICL) and will be focusing on that when the time comes. We are only roughly 1/2 way through this daily cycle though.
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I’ll have a little more below pertaining to the break higher by Bitcoin and how the Crypto-related stocks are set up. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – This breakout could have legs.
We had a sideways consolidation after a run out of the lows, and the length of that first run can usually repeat in length for the next run, after breaking from a pennant. WULF and MARA were only up 2%, RIOT was up 4%, which is odd for this sector on such a nice breakout, but a few other crypto stocks were up a little bit more. I am keeping my eyes on this area today too.
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MARA – Most of the crypto stocks DO look like Bullish set ups. Mara has a higher low and volume was pretty good on Wednesday, for example. On the first bounce it couldn’t get above the 50sma, but with Bitcoin breaking higher, we’ll see if it can today. NOTE: If Mara breaks out from here and runs to recent highs, it is a 100% move from the Jan lows (or even from here).
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WULF – You can see that WULF was only up 1.47% yesterday with that Bitcoin breakout. That is surprising, because Bitcoin and Wulf really do look bullish. Again, if this gets above the current resistance, it may start to move higher. So far the sector has been a bit choppy.
